Long-term regional extreme cold events(ECEs)garner significant attention due to their widespread impact and prolonged duration,posing critical threats to human society and ecosystems.Previous studies have examined ECE...Long-term regional extreme cold events(ECEs)garner significant attention due to their widespread impact and prolonged duration,posing critical threats to human society and ecosystems.Previous studies have examined ECE characteristics at single sites or grid points,however,it is crucial to recognize that such events generally manifest as spatiotemporally continuous regional phenomena.Here,we proposed an objective methodology based on spatiotemporal continuity to identify ECEs in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)during the winters of 1961-2015.This approach successfully reproduced the dynamic evolution of ECEs,encompassing their initiation,development,and dissipation.We further analyzed the changes of ECE intensity,frequency,and duration,and assessed ECE trends within varying return periods by employing the generalized Pareto distribution(GPD).Our findings reveal a decline in the frequency and duration of ECEs in CPEC over the study period,while their intensity has increased by 50%.ECEs predominantly occur in the northern regions of Azad Kashmir and Balochistan’s Quetta in Pakistan,and Kashgar in China.High recurrence levels are associated with an expansion of ECE-prone areas,particularly in the northern Pamir Plateau,which emerges as a regional hotspot.These results highlight the critical need to remain vigilant to potential future surges in ECEs under global warming,underscoring their implications for regional climate resilience.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the Key R&D Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(No.2022B03021)Tianshan Talent Training Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(No.2022TSYCLJ0011)+2 种基金Transformation of Scientific and Technological Achievements from the Qinghai Province(No.2020-SF-145)the 2020 Qinghai Kunlun Talents-leading Scientists Project(No.2020-LCJ-02)Key Program of International Cooperation,Bureau of International Cooperation,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.131551KYSB20210030)。
文摘Long-term regional extreme cold events(ECEs)garner significant attention due to their widespread impact and prolonged duration,posing critical threats to human society and ecosystems.Previous studies have examined ECE characteristics at single sites or grid points,however,it is crucial to recognize that such events generally manifest as spatiotemporally continuous regional phenomena.Here,we proposed an objective methodology based on spatiotemporal continuity to identify ECEs in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)during the winters of 1961-2015.This approach successfully reproduced the dynamic evolution of ECEs,encompassing their initiation,development,and dissipation.We further analyzed the changes of ECE intensity,frequency,and duration,and assessed ECE trends within varying return periods by employing the generalized Pareto distribution(GPD).Our findings reveal a decline in the frequency and duration of ECEs in CPEC over the study period,while their intensity has increased by 50%.ECEs predominantly occur in the northern regions of Azad Kashmir and Balochistan’s Quetta in Pakistan,and Kashgar in China.High recurrence levels are associated with an expansion of ECE-prone areas,particularly in the northern Pamir Plateau,which emerges as a regional hotspot.These results highlight the critical need to remain vigilant to potential future surges in ECEs under global warming,underscoring their implications for regional climate resilience.
