This paper proposes an assumption of quasi-variable discount rates to explain the excess volatility puzzle of stock market. Under the assumption, the ARMAX model is derived based on the CCAPM model and CRRA utility fu...This paper proposes an assumption of quasi-variable discount rates to explain the excess volatility puzzle of stock market. Under the assumption, the ARMAX model is derived based on the CCAPM model and CRRA utility function to describe the linear relationship between the discount rate and the consumption growth rate. We conducted empirical research on this model using historical data of the US stock market. The results confirm a significantly negative relationship between consumption growth rate and discount rate. Subsequently, the results of Monte Carlo simulation show that given the risk preference coefficient and dividend sequence, the rational expectations price fluctuation obtained under the assumption of quasivariable discount rate is the largest.展开更多
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71320107003 and 71661137001.
文摘This paper proposes an assumption of quasi-variable discount rates to explain the excess volatility puzzle of stock market. Under the assumption, the ARMAX model is derived based on the CCAPM model and CRRA utility function to describe the linear relationship between the discount rate and the consumption growth rate. We conducted empirical research on this model using historical data of the US stock market. The results confirm a significantly negative relationship between consumption growth rate and discount rate. Subsequently, the results of Monte Carlo simulation show that given the risk preference coefficient and dividend sequence, the rational expectations price fluctuation obtained under the assumption of quasivariable discount rate is the largest.
