In order to break through the limitations of the traditional hazard and operability(HAZOP)analysis,this study established a gray evaluation model based on gray theory for the riskiness ranking of deviations and semi-q...In order to break through the limitations of the traditional hazard and operability(HAZOP)analysis,this study established a gray evaluation model based on gray theory for the riskiness ranking of deviations and semi-quantitative analysis of risk levels.A quantitative HAZOP analysis combining HAZOP with Aspen Plus,Aspen Dynamics,Fault Tree Analysis(FTA),Risk Matrix and Layer of Protection Analysis(LOPA)was performed for high risk deviations.The dynamic model of the methanol washing unit in the rectisol process was established by Aspen Dynamics and the effects of different deviations on the risk indicators and operability indicators were investigated.Then,the risk of deviations was ranked according to the simulation results and the high-risk deviations were identified.Subsequently,the sensitivity analysis module of Aspen Plus software was used to calculate the fluctuationrange of highrisk deviations,whose results were imported into Aspen Dynamics to simulate and analyze the risk level of accidents,and then FTA was used to quantify the probability of accidents.Synchronizing the two to the risk matrix determined the deviations to have initial risk ratings of 10 and 15,both of which are high-risk deviations.The HAZOP quantitative analysis report is finalizedafter reducing the residual risk level of the deviation to 9(low risk)through LOPA analysis.The results of the case study showed that the method can verify the accuracy of the gray evaluation model to a certain extent,and the quantitative HAZOP analysis report is of guiding significancefor actual production.展开更多
基金supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(U1710101)the Shanxi Science and Technology Service Co.Ltd.,China.
文摘In order to break through the limitations of the traditional hazard and operability(HAZOP)analysis,this study established a gray evaluation model based on gray theory for the riskiness ranking of deviations and semi-quantitative analysis of risk levels.A quantitative HAZOP analysis combining HAZOP with Aspen Plus,Aspen Dynamics,Fault Tree Analysis(FTA),Risk Matrix and Layer of Protection Analysis(LOPA)was performed for high risk deviations.The dynamic model of the methanol washing unit in the rectisol process was established by Aspen Dynamics and the effects of different deviations on the risk indicators and operability indicators were investigated.Then,the risk of deviations was ranked according to the simulation results and the high-risk deviations were identified.Subsequently,the sensitivity analysis module of Aspen Plus software was used to calculate the fluctuationrange of highrisk deviations,whose results were imported into Aspen Dynamics to simulate and analyze the risk level of accidents,and then FTA was used to quantify the probability of accidents.Synchronizing the two to the risk matrix determined the deviations to have initial risk ratings of 10 and 15,both of which are high-risk deviations.The HAZOP quantitative analysis report is finalizedafter reducing the residual risk level of the deviation to 9(low risk)through LOPA analysis.The results of the case study showed that the method can verify the accuracy of the gray evaluation model to a certain extent,and the quantitative HAZOP analysis report is of guiding significancefor actual production.
