目的分析1990—2021年中国胃癌发病的长期变化趋势,为中国胃癌的防控提供科学建议。方法从全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)2021数据库中获取1990—2021年胃癌的发病负担数据,使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估其独立效应,并使用No...目的分析1990—2021年中国胃癌发病的长期变化趋势,为中国胃癌的防控提供科学建议。方法从全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)2021数据库中获取1990—2021年胃癌的发病负担数据,使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估其独立效应,并使用Nordpred模型对2022—2031年的发病趋势进行预测。结果1990—2021年中国胃癌发病人数、发病率均呈上升趋势,然而标化发病率呈下降趋势。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示,在相同出生队列中,中国胃癌的发病率随年龄的增加而增加,总人口发病率从0.91/10万增至233.37/10万,男性发病率从0.91/10万增至508.90/10万,女性发病率从1.04/10万增至115.86/10万;在1992—1996年至2017—2021年时期间,胃癌的相对危险度(Relative risk,RR)随着时期的推移呈下降趋势,总人口时期RR从1.10降至0.72,男性从1.06降至0.75,女性从1.19降至0.65;在整个出生队列年间,出生队列越晚发病风险越低,总人口队列RR从1.60降至0.34,男性从1.36降至0.40,女性从2.23降至0.22。发病预测结果显示,到2031年,胃癌发病例数增至470429例,其中男性增至323399例,女性增至147029例,总人口标化发病率降至23.80/10万,男性降至35.13/10万例,女性降至24.17/10万例。结论1990—2021年胃癌防治措施在降低发病风险方面取得了一定成效,但胃癌发病情况仍然严峻,需对50岁以上男性重点加强干预。展开更多
Mobile information and communication technologies(MICTs) have fully penetrated everyday life in smart societies;this has greatly compressed time, space, and distance, and consequently, reshaped residents’ travel beha...Mobile information and communication technologies(MICTs) have fully penetrated everyday life in smart societies;this has greatly compressed time, space, and distance, and consequently, reshaped residents’ travel behaviour patterns. As a new mode of shared mobility, the sharing bicycle offers a variety of options for the daily travel of urban residents. Extant studies have mainly examined the travel characteristics and influencing factors of public bicycles with piles, while the travel patterns for sharing bicycles and their driving mechanisms have been largely ignored. Using one week’s travel data for Mobike, this study investigated the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of sharing bicycle travel behaviours in the central urban area of Guangzhou, China;furthermore, it identified the influences of built environment density factors on sharing bicycle travel behaviours based on the geographically weighted regression method. Obvious morning and evening peaks were observed in the sharing bicycle travel patterns for both weekdays and weekends. The old urban area, which had a high degree of mixed function, dense road networks, and cycling-friendly built environments, was the main travel area that attracted sharing bicycles on both weekdays and weekends. Furthermore, factors including the point of interest(POI) for the density of public transport stations, the functional mixing degree, and the density of residential POIs significantly affected residents’ travel behaviours. These findings could enrich discourse regarding shared mobility with a Chinese case characterised by rapidly developing MICTs and also provide references to local authorities for improving slow traffic environments.展开更多
文摘目的分析1990—2021年中国胃癌发病的长期变化趋势,为中国胃癌的防控提供科学建议。方法从全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)2021数据库中获取1990—2021年胃癌的发病负担数据,使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估其独立效应,并使用Nordpred模型对2022—2031年的发病趋势进行预测。结果1990—2021年中国胃癌发病人数、发病率均呈上升趋势,然而标化发病率呈下降趋势。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示,在相同出生队列中,中国胃癌的发病率随年龄的增加而增加,总人口发病率从0.91/10万增至233.37/10万,男性发病率从0.91/10万增至508.90/10万,女性发病率从1.04/10万增至115.86/10万;在1992—1996年至2017—2021年时期间,胃癌的相对危险度(Relative risk,RR)随着时期的推移呈下降趋势,总人口时期RR从1.10降至0.72,男性从1.06降至0.75,女性从1.19降至0.65;在整个出生队列年间,出生队列越晚发病风险越低,总人口队列RR从1.60降至0.34,男性从1.36降至0.40,女性从2.23降至0.22。发病预测结果显示,到2031年,胃癌发病例数增至470429例,其中男性增至323399例,女性增至147029例,总人口标化发病率降至23.80/10万,男性降至35.13/10万例,女性降至24.17/10万例。结论1990—2021年胃癌防治措施在降低发病风险方面取得了一定成效,但胃癌发病情况仍然严峻,需对50岁以上男性重点加强干预。
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41801150,41571146,41801144)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(No.2018A030310392)+2 种基金Guangdong Planning Project of Philosophy and Social Science(No.GD17YGL01)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou(No.201906010033)GDAS’(Guangdong Academy of Sciences)Project of Science and Technology Development(No.2020GDASYL-20200104007)。
文摘Mobile information and communication technologies(MICTs) have fully penetrated everyday life in smart societies;this has greatly compressed time, space, and distance, and consequently, reshaped residents’ travel behaviour patterns. As a new mode of shared mobility, the sharing bicycle offers a variety of options for the daily travel of urban residents. Extant studies have mainly examined the travel characteristics and influencing factors of public bicycles with piles, while the travel patterns for sharing bicycles and their driving mechanisms have been largely ignored. Using one week’s travel data for Mobike, this study investigated the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of sharing bicycle travel behaviours in the central urban area of Guangzhou, China;furthermore, it identified the influences of built environment density factors on sharing bicycle travel behaviours based on the geographically weighted regression method. Obvious morning and evening peaks were observed in the sharing bicycle travel patterns for both weekdays and weekends. The old urban area, which had a high degree of mixed function, dense road networks, and cycling-friendly built environments, was the main travel area that attracted sharing bicycles on both weekdays and weekends. Furthermore, factors including the point of interest(POI) for the density of public transport stations, the functional mixing degree, and the density of residential POIs significantly affected residents’ travel behaviours. These findings could enrich discourse regarding shared mobility with a Chinese case characterised by rapidly developing MICTs and also provide references to local authorities for improving slow traffic environments.
