In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities.Sixteen different estimates of t...In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities.Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature.Half of these estimates are"low variability"and half are"high variability".Meanwhile,five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using:1)only rural weather stations;2)all available stations whether urban or rural(the standard approach);3)only sea surface temperatures;4)tree-ring widths as temperature proxies;5)glacier length records as temperature proxies.The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates,suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets-despite the conclusions of some earlier studies.Nonetheless,all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century,i.e.,there has been some"global warming"since the 19th century.For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures,the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting.The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended"anthropogenic forcings"time series.For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series,different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades(implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused)to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity(that is,that recent global warming is mostly natural).It appears that previous studies(including the most recent IPCC reports)which had prematurely concluded the former,had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates.Therefore,several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.展开更多
This is the first report of the Barents Sea Ice Edge (BIE) project. The BIE position has varied between latitude 76<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>N and above 82<span style=&...This is the first report of the Barents Sea Ice Edge (BIE) project. The BIE position has varied between latitude 76<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>N and above 82<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>N during the last 440 years. During the period 10,000 to 6000 years ago, Arctic climate was significantly warmer than today. We review various oceanic and atmospheric factors that may have an effect on the BIE position. The Gulf Stream beat with respect to alternations in flow intensity and N-S distribution plays a central role for the changes in climate and BIE position during the last millennium. This occurred in combination with external forcing from total solar irradiation, Earth’s shielding strength, Earth’s geomagnetic field intensity, Earth’s rotation, jet stream changes;all factors of which are ultimately driven by the planetary beat on the Sun, the Earth and the Earth-Moon system. During the last 20 years, we see signs of changes and shifts that may signal the end of the late 20<sup>th</sup> century warm period. The BIE position is likely to start advancing southward in next decade.展开更多
This is the second paper in a series of two, which analyze the position of the Barents Sea ice-edge (BIE) based on a 442-year long dataset to understand its time variations. The data have been collected from ship-logs...This is the second paper in a series of two, which analyze the position of the Barents Sea ice-edge (BIE) based on a 442-year long dataset to understand its time variations. The data have been collected from ship-logs, polar expeditions, and hunters in addition to airplanes and satellites in recent times. Our main result is that the BIE position alternates between a southern and a northern position followed by Gulf Stream Beats (GSBs) at the occurrence of deep solar minima. We decompose the low frequency BIE position variations in cycles composed of dominant periods which are related to the Jose period of 179 years, indicating planetary forcings. We propose that the mechanism transferring planetary signals into changes in BIE position is the solar wind (SW), which provides magnetic shielding of the Earth in addition to geomagnetic disturbances. Increase in the solar wind produces pressure which decelerates the Earth’s rotation. It also transfers electrical energy to the ring current in the earth’s magnetosphere. This current magnetizes the earth’s solid core and makes it rotate faster. To conserve angular momentum the earth’s outer fluid mantle rotates slower with a delay of about 100 years. In addition will geomagnetic storms, initiated by solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) penetrate deep in the Earth’s atmosphere and change pressure pattern in the Arctic. This effect is larger during solar minima since the magnetic shielding then is reduced. The Arctic may then experience local warming. The transition of solar activities to a possibly deep and long minimum in the present century may indicate Arctic cooling and the BIE moving south this century. For the North Atlantic region, effects of the BIE expanding southward will have noticeable consequences for the ocean bio-production from about 2040.展开更多
Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s glob...Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused.In Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data sets.We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear regression.They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement.They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date.However,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et al.are confirmed for all five ST data sets.Therefore,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both.展开更多
基金financial support from the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences(CERES)support from NASA+2 种基金NSFTennessee State Universitythe State of Tennessee through its Centers of Excellence program。
文摘In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities.Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature.Half of these estimates are"low variability"and half are"high variability".Meanwhile,five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using:1)only rural weather stations;2)all available stations whether urban or rural(the standard approach);3)only sea surface temperatures;4)tree-ring widths as temperature proxies;5)glacier length records as temperature proxies.The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates,suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets-despite the conclusions of some earlier studies.Nonetheless,all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century,i.e.,there has been some"global warming"since the 19th century.For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures,the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting.The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended"anthropogenic forcings"time series.For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series,different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades(implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused)to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity(that is,that recent global warming is mostly natural).It appears that previous studies(including the most recent IPCC reports)which had prematurely concluded the former,had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates.Therefore,several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.
文摘This is the first report of the Barents Sea Ice Edge (BIE) project. The BIE position has varied between latitude 76<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>N and above 82<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>N during the last 440 years. During the period 10,000 to 6000 years ago, Arctic climate was significantly warmer than today. We review various oceanic and atmospheric factors that may have an effect on the BIE position. The Gulf Stream beat with respect to alternations in flow intensity and N-S distribution plays a central role for the changes in climate and BIE position during the last millennium. This occurred in combination with external forcing from total solar irradiation, Earth’s shielding strength, Earth’s geomagnetic field intensity, Earth’s rotation, jet stream changes;all factors of which are ultimately driven by the planetary beat on the Sun, the Earth and the Earth-Moon system. During the last 20 years, we see signs of changes and shifts that may signal the end of the late 20<sup>th</sup> century warm period. The BIE position is likely to start advancing southward in next decade.
文摘This is the second paper in a series of two, which analyze the position of the Barents Sea ice-edge (BIE) based on a 442-year long dataset to understand its time variations. The data have been collected from ship-logs, polar expeditions, and hunters in addition to airplanes and satellites in recent times. Our main result is that the BIE position alternates between a southern and a northern position followed by Gulf Stream Beats (GSBs) at the occurrence of deep solar minima. We decompose the low frequency BIE position variations in cycles composed of dominant periods which are related to the Jose period of 179 years, indicating planetary forcings. We propose that the mechanism transferring planetary signals into changes in BIE position is the solar wind (SW), which provides magnetic shielding of the Earth in addition to geomagnetic disturbances. Increase in the solar wind produces pressure which decelerates the Earth’s rotation. It also transfers electrical energy to the ring current in the earth’s magnetosphere. This current magnetizes the earth’s solid core and makes it rotate faster. To conserve angular momentum the earth’s outer fluid mantle rotates slower with a delay of about 100 years. In addition will geomagnetic storms, initiated by solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) penetrate deep in the Earth’s atmosphere and change pressure pattern in the Arctic. This effect is larger during solar minima since the magnetic shielding then is reduced. The Arctic may then experience local warming. The transition of solar activities to a possibly deep and long minimum in the present century may indicate Arctic cooling and the BIE moving south this century. For the North Atlantic region, effects of the BIE expanding southward will have noticeable consequences for the ocean bio-production from about 2040.
基金financial support from the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences(CERES,www.ceres-science.com)while carrying out the research for this paperlong-term support from NASA,NSF,Tennessee State University,and the State of Tennessee through its Centers of Excellence Programthe support of the grant PID-5265TC of the National Technological University of Argentina。
文摘Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused.In Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data sets.We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear regression.They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement.They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date.However,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et al.are confirmed for all five ST data sets.Therefore,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both.
