This study demonstrated a framework to assess vulnerability of forests to climate change. We focused on how alterations of temperature and precipitation might affect forest type distributions and carbon-related functi...This study demonstrated a framework to assess vulnerability of forests to climate change. We focused on how alterations of temperature and precipitation might affect forest type distributions and carbon-related functions. In particular, our framework considered three sectors of forest type distribution, net primary production, and soil carbon storage. Future projections were derived from mechanistic models for South Korean forests under the A1 B scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Forest type distributions were simulated by the Hydrological and thermal analogy group model, while the MAPSS and CENTURY1 models estimated forest carbon flux/storage. We quantified normalized vulnerability indices for each sector. Our results indicate that the overall vulnerability of forest type distribution is greater in the west central regions and southeastern inlands. The vulnerabilities of carbon flux/storage show that net primary production of South Korean forests is relatively less susceptible to climate change, but a highly vulnerable area of soil carbon storage mainly spreads from the west central to the south east region. The spatio-temporal vulnerability map with a synoptic overview from this study might be useful for policy makers in preparing adaptive measures and identifying management priorities.展开更多
Aims This study aimed to develop radial growth models and to predict the potential spatial distribution of Pinus densiflora(Japanese red pine)and Quercus spp.(Oaks)in South Korea,considering topographic and climatic f...Aims This study aimed to develop radial growth models and to predict the potential spatial distribution of Pinus densiflora(Japanese red pine)and Quercus spp.(Oaks)in South Korea,considering topographic and climatic factors.Methods We used a dataset of diameter at breast height and radial growth estimates of individual trees,topographic and climatic factors in systematic sample plots distributed over the whole of South Korea.On the basis that radial growth is attributed primarily to tree age,we developed a radial growth model employing tree age as an explanatory variable.We estimated standard growth(SG),defined as radial growth of the tree at age 30,to eliminate the influence of tree age on radial growth.In addition,SG estimates including the Topographic Wetness Index,temperature and precipitation were calculated by the Generalized Additive Model.Important Findings As a result of variogram analysis of SG,we found spatial autocorrelation between SG,topographic and climatic factors.Incremental temperature had negative impacts on radial growth of P.densiflora and positive impacts on that of Quercus spp.Precipitation was associated with positive effects on both tree species.Based on the model,we found that radial growth of P.densiflora would be more vulnerable than that of Quercus spp.to climatic factors.Through simulation with the radial growth model,it was predicted that P.densiflora stands would be gradually replaced with Quercus spp.stands in eastern coastal and southern regions of South Korea in the future.The models developed in this study will be helpful for understanding the impact of climatic factors on tree growth and for predicting changes in distribution of P.densiflora and Quercus spp.due to climate change in South Korea.展开更多
基金funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment as ‘‘The Climate Change Correspondence R&D Project(RE 201206045)’’ and ‘‘Climate Change Correspondence Program’’(Project Number:2014001310008)
文摘This study demonstrated a framework to assess vulnerability of forests to climate change. We focused on how alterations of temperature and precipitation might affect forest type distributions and carbon-related functions. In particular, our framework considered three sectors of forest type distribution, net primary production, and soil carbon storage. Future projections were derived from mechanistic models for South Korean forests under the A1 B scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Forest type distributions were simulated by the Hydrological and thermal analogy group model, while the MAPSS and CENTURY1 models estimated forest carbon flux/storage. We quantified normalized vulnerability indices for each sector. Our results indicate that the overall vulnerability of forest type distribution is greater in the west central regions and southeastern inlands. The vulnerabilities of carbon flux/storage show that net primary production of South Korean forests is relatively less susceptible to climate change, but a highly vulnerable area of soil carbon storage mainly spreads from the west central to the south east region. The spatio-temporal vulnerability map with a synoptic overview from this study might be useful for policy makers in preparing adaptive measures and identifying management priorities.
基金Korea Forest Service research project‘Growth response model for major tree species using tree-ring information of national forest inventory(Project No:S120911L030130)’‘A3 Foresight Program(A307-K005)’provided by National Research Foundation of Korea.
文摘Aims This study aimed to develop radial growth models and to predict the potential spatial distribution of Pinus densiflora(Japanese red pine)and Quercus spp.(Oaks)in South Korea,considering topographic and climatic factors.Methods We used a dataset of diameter at breast height and radial growth estimates of individual trees,topographic and climatic factors in systematic sample plots distributed over the whole of South Korea.On the basis that radial growth is attributed primarily to tree age,we developed a radial growth model employing tree age as an explanatory variable.We estimated standard growth(SG),defined as radial growth of the tree at age 30,to eliminate the influence of tree age on radial growth.In addition,SG estimates including the Topographic Wetness Index,temperature and precipitation were calculated by the Generalized Additive Model.Important Findings As a result of variogram analysis of SG,we found spatial autocorrelation between SG,topographic and climatic factors.Incremental temperature had negative impacts on radial growth of P.densiflora and positive impacts on that of Quercus spp.Precipitation was associated with positive effects on both tree species.Based on the model,we found that radial growth of P.densiflora would be more vulnerable than that of Quercus spp.to climatic factors.Through simulation with the radial growth model,it was predicted that P.densiflora stands would be gradually replaced with Quercus spp.stands in eastern coastal and southern regions of South Korea in the future.The models developed in this study will be helpful for understanding the impact of climatic factors on tree growth and for predicting changes in distribution of P.densiflora and Quercus spp.due to climate change in South Korea.
