This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the world.These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical mo...This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the world.These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity.In addition,several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood.Realtime Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018.Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018.Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins.A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal(e.g.,multi-year)timescales is included.Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.展开更多
基金supported by the G.Unger Vetlesen Foundationfinancial support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme(EUCP+5 种基金grant agreement no.776613)from the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad(MINECO)as part of the CLINSA(CGL2017-85791-R)and HIATUS(CGL2015-70353-R)projectssupport of JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers JP17K14395 and JP17K01223financial support from the National Typhoon Center at the Korea Meteorological Administration("Research and Development for Numerical Weather Prediction and Earthquake Services"project)support from the UK Public Weather Service research programmesupported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China Grant E-CityU101/16.
文摘This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the world.These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity.In addition,several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood.Realtime Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018.Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018.Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins.A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal(e.g.,multi-year)timescales is included.Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.
