For the purpose of crop planning and to carry out the agricultural practices,it is important to know the sequence of dry and wet periods.The present study was undertaken with the objectives to forecast dry and wet spe...For the purpose of crop planning and to carry out the agricultural practices,it is important to know the sequence of dry and wet periods.The present study was undertaken with the objectives to forecast dry and wet spell analysis using Markov chain model and also to find out the exact time of onset and termination of monsoon at study area for North Lakhimpur(Assam),India using weekly rainfall data for a period of 24 years.The results indicated that probability of occurrence of dry week is higher from week 1st to 14^(th) and also from week 41^(st) to 52^(nd).The range of probability of occurrence of dry week in these weeks varies from 41.67% to 100%.Probability of occurrence of wet week is higher from week 17^(th) to 40^(th).The range of probability of wet week in these weeks varies from 66.67% to 100%.Week 1^(st) to 4^(th) and 43^(rd) to 52^(nd) of the year remains under stress on an average,as there are 50% to 95.83% chances of occurrence of two consecutive dry weeks.The analysis showed that monsoon starts effectively from week 23^(rd)(4^(th) June to 10^(th) June)in North Lakhimpur.The week 25^(th)(18^(th) June to 24^(th) June)is ideal time for initiation of wet land preparation for growing short duration rice variety.Pre-monsoon effectively starts from week 14^(th)(2^(nd) April to 8^(th) April).On week 14^(th) sowing of summer maize(rain fed)may be done.Week 15^(th)(9^(th) April to 15^(th) April)is ideal time for initiation of wet land preparation for growing long duration rice variety.展开更多
文摘For the purpose of crop planning and to carry out the agricultural practices,it is important to know the sequence of dry and wet periods.The present study was undertaken with the objectives to forecast dry and wet spell analysis using Markov chain model and also to find out the exact time of onset and termination of monsoon at study area for North Lakhimpur(Assam),India using weekly rainfall data for a period of 24 years.The results indicated that probability of occurrence of dry week is higher from week 1st to 14^(th) and also from week 41^(st) to 52^(nd).The range of probability of occurrence of dry week in these weeks varies from 41.67% to 100%.Probability of occurrence of wet week is higher from week 17^(th) to 40^(th).The range of probability of wet week in these weeks varies from 66.67% to 100%.Week 1^(st) to 4^(th) and 43^(rd) to 52^(nd) of the year remains under stress on an average,as there are 50% to 95.83% chances of occurrence of two consecutive dry weeks.The analysis showed that monsoon starts effectively from week 23^(rd)(4^(th) June to 10^(th) June)in North Lakhimpur.The week 25^(th)(18^(th) June to 24^(th) June)is ideal time for initiation of wet land preparation for growing short duration rice variety.Pre-monsoon effectively starts from week 14^(th)(2^(nd) April to 8^(th) April).On week 14^(th) sowing of summer maize(rain fed)may be done.Week 15^(th)(9^(th) April to 15^(th) April)is ideal time for initiation of wet land preparation for growing long duration rice variety.
