华南暖区暴雨发生时,冷空气和锋面离广东较远,往往事前不易被发现,漏报或迟报较多。基于覆盖华南区域的3km GRAPES_Meso模式和ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System)系统的复杂云分析方案,选取2015年5月16日发生在粤西沿海地区的一次暖区暴...华南暖区暴雨发生时,冷空气和锋面离广东较远,往往事前不易被发现,漏报或迟报较多。基于覆盖华南区域的3km GRAPES_Meso模式和ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System)系统的复杂云分析方案,选取2015年5月16日发生在粤西沿海地区的一次暖区暴雨个例进行数值试验,研究模式初始湿度条件的差异对暖区对流系统的触发、发展和维持的可预报性的影响。试验结果表明,增加模式的初始云信息可以增大初始场中低层的大气湿度,使空气接近或达到饱和,从而使数值模式有能力模拟出与实况接近的降水。分析模拟结果的对流触发和维持过程,可以发现,(1)初始水汽和云水物质的增多,增大了大气的不稳定性:对流有效位能(CAPE)增大、K指数增大,对流抑制能量(CIN)减小、抬升指数(LI)减小,而且大气可降水量(PW)增多,从而使对流能够被快速激发;(2)暖区暴雨对流触发和对流维持的机制有所不同:模式对初始时刻湿度条件高度敏感,模式开始积分后饱和大气释放凝结潜热加热大气,所导致的浮力增强使对流更容易被触发;对流维持发展阶段,降水引发地面弱冷池形成,冷池向外流出气流与粤西沿海暖湿气流的汇合维持了低层水平风场辐合,从而维持了对流和降水的发展。进一步的敏感性试验表明,减少初始水汽增量,则辐合上升运动减弱,激发的对流强度减弱,且对流发生、发展、消散的速度变慢、滞后于实况。展开更多
With data mainly from Guangzhou mesonet Automatic Weather Stations(AWS),Guangzhou Doppler Radar and satellite TBB data,characteristics and evolution of the urban heat island(UHI)over Guang-zhou City were analyzed in a...With data mainly from Guangzhou mesonet Automatic Weather Stations(AWS),Guangzhou Doppler Radar and satellite TBB data,characteristics and evolution of the urban heat island(UHI)over Guang-zhou City were analyzed in a tropical cyclone affected situation for early August 2005.In particular,two thunderstorms occurring during this period respectively at the night of 4 August and in the afternoon of 7 August were investigated to study the relationships between the development of thunderstorms and the UHI.Results showed that two thunderstorms were associated with the UHI effects.UHI induced local air convergence and initiated the thunderstorm convections.Both cases showed a general agreement in time and space for the locations of maximum UHI,convergence,convection,and pre-cipitation.Convection was found to be more favorable to developing in time periods and locations with stronger intensity of UHI.Analysis also showed that,due to the urban effects,both thunderstorms got strengthened when moving over Guangzhou City,with maximum radar echoes observed right over the urban area and precipitation located within the city.All these features reveal that two thunderstorms were urban-induced storms.展开更多
文摘华南暖区暴雨发生时,冷空气和锋面离广东较远,往往事前不易被发现,漏报或迟报较多。基于覆盖华南区域的3km GRAPES_Meso模式和ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System)系统的复杂云分析方案,选取2015年5月16日发生在粤西沿海地区的一次暖区暴雨个例进行数值试验,研究模式初始湿度条件的差异对暖区对流系统的触发、发展和维持的可预报性的影响。试验结果表明,增加模式的初始云信息可以增大初始场中低层的大气湿度,使空气接近或达到饱和,从而使数值模式有能力模拟出与实况接近的降水。分析模拟结果的对流触发和维持过程,可以发现,(1)初始水汽和云水物质的增多,增大了大气的不稳定性:对流有效位能(CAPE)增大、K指数增大,对流抑制能量(CIN)减小、抬升指数(LI)减小,而且大气可降水量(PW)增多,从而使对流能够被快速激发;(2)暖区暴雨对流触发和对流维持的机制有所不同:模式对初始时刻湿度条件高度敏感,模式开始积分后饱和大气释放凝结潜热加热大气,所导致的浮力增强使对流更容易被触发;对流维持发展阶段,降水引发地面弱冷池形成,冷池向外流出气流与粤西沿海暖湿气流的汇合维持了低层水平风场辐合,从而维持了对流和降水的发展。进一步的敏感性试验表明,减少初始水汽增量,则辐合上升运动减弱,激发的对流强度减弱,且对流发生、发展、消散的速度变慢、滞后于实况。
基金Supported jointly by the R&D Infrastructure and Facility Developemnt Program(2003DIB4J145)from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China,Urban Meteorological Science Research Fund(UMRF200504)the Open Research Fund from the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Mete-orological Sciences
文摘With data mainly from Guangzhou mesonet Automatic Weather Stations(AWS),Guangzhou Doppler Radar and satellite TBB data,characteristics and evolution of the urban heat island(UHI)over Guang-zhou City were analyzed in a tropical cyclone affected situation for early August 2005.In particular,two thunderstorms occurring during this period respectively at the night of 4 August and in the afternoon of 7 August were investigated to study the relationships between the development of thunderstorms and the UHI.Results showed that two thunderstorms were associated with the UHI effects.UHI induced local air convergence and initiated the thunderstorm convections.Both cases showed a general agreement in time and space for the locations of maximum UHI,convergence,convection,and pre-cipitation.Convection was found to be more favorable to developing in time periods and locations with stronger intensity of UHI.Analysis also showed that,due to the urban effects,both thunderstorms got strengthened when moving over Guangzhou City,with maximum radar echoes observed right over the urban area and precipitation located within the city.All these features reveal that two thunderstorms were urban-induced storms.
