This report briefly summarizes recent progress in storm surge forecasts,one of topics discussed during the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Process(IWTCLP 4)held during 5-8 December,2017.In t...This report briefly summarizes recent progress in storm surge forecasts,one of topics discussed during the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Process(IWTCLP 4)held during 5-8 December,2017.In the workshop,improvement of storm surge forecasting system was mainly discussed with relevance to the problem of estimating the impacts of tropical cyclone landfall.To deal with storm surges,accurate TC condition(predictions and forecasts)as input,reasonable storm surge predictions(with forecasting systems),and effective advisories/warnings(i.e.useful information products)are necessary.Therefore,we need to improve storm surge related matters systematically:input,prediction system,and ef fective information.This report tries to highlight recent progress in the field of storm surges in relation to three key points:improvement in storm surge forecasting models/system,TC conditions as input for storm surge predictions,and informative products for end users.展开更多
This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent(2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone(TC...This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent(2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone(TC) track, intensity, and structure rapid changes at or near landfall. Although the focus of IWTCLPIV was on landfall, this summary necessarily embraces the characteristics of storms during their course over the ocean prior to and leading up to landfall. In the past few years, extremely valuable observational datasets have been collected for TC forecasting guidance and research studies using both aircraft reconnaissance and new geostationary or low-earth orbiting satellites at high temporal and spatial resolution. Track deflections for systems near complex topography such as that of Taiwan and La Réunion have been further investigated, and advanced numerical models with high spatial resolution necessary to predict the interaction of the TC circulation with steep island topography have been developed. An analog technique has been designed to meet the need for longer range landfall intensity forecast guidance that will provide more time for emergency preparedness. Probabilistic track and intensity forecasts have also been developed to better communicate on forecast uncertainty. Operational practices of several TC forecast centers are described herein and some challenges regarding forecasts and warnings for TCs making landfall are identified. This review concludes with insights from both researchers and forecasters regarding future directions to improve predictions of TC track, intensity, and structure at landfall.展开更多
The Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) was held in Macao, China from 5-7 December 2017. The workshop was organized by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) Expert Team ...The Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) was held in Macao, China from 5-7 December 2017. The workshop was organized by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) Expert Team on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes in partnership with the WMO Tropical Cyclone Program. The workshop provided a forum for discussion between researchers and forecasters on the current status of tropical cyclone landfall processes and on priorities and opportunities for research. More than 60 leading research scientists and warning specialists working on topics related to tropical cyclone landfall examined current knowledge, forecasting and research trends from an integrated global perspective. The workshop offered a number of recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different tropical cyclone af fected regions. The recommendations emanating from the workshop will be presented at the upcoming Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)(Hawaii, USA, 3-7 December 2018).展开更多
Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s.However,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society a...Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s.However,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making.To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting.In particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC predictions.We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations.New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.展开更多
基金a part of the fund of the project"Study the mechanism of the after-runner storm surge in the north coast of Vietnam by a coupled numerical model and propose the improvement technology of forecasting storm surge under the climate change"Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development(NAFOSTED)
文摘This report briefly summarizes recent progress in storm surge forecasts,one of topics discussed during the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Process(IWTCLP 4)held during 5-8 December,2017.In the workshop,improvement of storm surge forecasting system was mainly discussed with relevance to the problem of estimating the impacts of tropical cyclone landfall.To deal with storm surges,accurate TC condition(predictions and forecasts)as input,reasonable storm surge predictions(with forecasting systems),and effective advisories/warnings(i.e.useful information products)are necessary.Therefore,we need to improve storm surge related matters systematically:input,prediction system,and ef fective information.This report tries to highlight recent progress in the field of storm surges in relation to three key points:improvement in storm surge forecasting models/system,TC conditions as input for storm surge predictions,and informative products for end users.
文摘This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent(2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone(TC) track, intensity, and structure rapid changes at or near landfall. Although the focus of IWTCLPIV was on landfall, this summary necessarily embraces the characteristics of storms during their course over the ocean prior to and leading up to landfall. In the past few years, extremely valuable observational datasets have been collected for TC forecasting guidance and research studies using both aircraft reconnaissance and new geostationary or low-earth orbiting satellites at high temporal and spatial resolution. Track deflections for systems near complex topography such as that of Taiwan and La Réunion have been further investigated, and advanced numerical models with high spatial resolution necessary to predict the interaction of the TC circulation with steep island topography have been developed. An analog technique has been designed to meet the need for longer range landfall intensity forecast guidance that will provide more time for emergency preparedness. Probabilistic track and intensity forecasts have also been developed to better communicate on forecast uncertainty. Operational practices of several TC forecast centers are described herein and some challenges regarding forecasts and warnings for TCs making landfall are identified. This review concludes with insights from both researchers and forecasters regarding future directions to improve predictions of TC track, intensity, and structure at landfall.
文摘The Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) was held in Macao, China from 5-7 December 2017. The workshop was organized by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) Expert Team on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes in partnership with the WMO Tropical Cyclone Program. The workshop provided a forum for discussion between researchers and forecasters on the current status of tropical cyclone landfall processes and on priorities and opportunities for research. More than 60 leading research scientists and warning specialists working on topics related to tropical cyclone landfall examined current knowledge, forecasting and research trends from an integrated global perspective. The workshop offered a number of recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different tropical cyclone af fected regions. The recommendations emanating from the workshop will be presented at the upcoming Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)(Hawaii, USA, 3-7 December 2018).
基金support of the MEXT program for the advanced studies of climate change projection(SENTAN),Grant Numbers JPMXD0722680395 and JPMXD0722680734Julia Lockwood would like to acknowledge funding from the C3S_34c contract(number:ECMWF/COPERNICUS/2019/C3S_34c_DWD)of the Copernicus Climate Change Service operated by ECMWF.
文摘Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s.However,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making.To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting.In particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC predictions.We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations.New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.
