Enhanced vegetation index(EVI)data can be used to identify and define the space in which ungulates practice parturition and encounter predation.This study explores the use of EVI data to identify landscapes linked to ...Enhanced vegetation index(EVI)data can be used to identify and define the space in which ungulates practice parturition and encounter predation.This study explores the use of EVI data to identify landscapes linked to ungulate parturition and predation events across space,time,and environmental conditions.As a case study,we used the moose population(Alces alces)of northern Minnesota in the USA.Using remotely sensed EVI data rasters and global positioning system collar data,we quantified how vegetation phenology and moose movement shaped the births and predation of 52 moose calves from 2013 to 2020 on or adjacent to the Grand Portage Indian Reservation.The known sources of predation were American black bears(Ursus americanus,n=22)and gray wolves(Canis lupus,n=28).Satellite-derived data summarizing seasonal landscape features at the local level revealed that landscape heterogeneity use by moose can help to quantitatively identify landscapes of parturition and predation in space and time across large areas.Vegetation phenology proved to be differentiable between adult moose ranges,sites of cow parturition,and sites of calf predation.Landscape characteristics of each moose group were consistent and tractable based on environment,suggesting that sites of parturition and predation of moose are predictable in space and time.It is possible that moose selected specific landscapes for parturition despite risk of increased predation of their calves,which could be an example of an"ecological trap."This analytical framework can be employed to identify areas for future ungulate research on the impacts of landscape on parturition and predation dynamics.展开更多
Background Vector-borne diseases(VBDs)are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential,which can result in signifcant population and economic impacts.Oropouche fev...Background Vector-borne diseases(VBDs)are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential,which can result in signifcant population and economic impacts.Oropouche fever,caused by Oropouche virus(OROV),is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America.The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored,limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance.Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV,we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data,coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phe‑nology.Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas.Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of diferent parameters such as diferent study areas and environmental predictors.Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV.Nevertheless,the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections.For example,some out‑breaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur.The distribu‑tion models also revealed that landscape variation,expressed as vegetation loss,is linked to OROV outbreaks.Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America.Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence.Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understand‑ing exists on their sylvatic cycles.OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance,investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology,and inform early detection.展开更多
Background Climate change presents an imminent threat to almost all biological systems across the globe.In recent years there have been a series of studies showing how changes in climate can impact infectious disease ...Background Climate change presents an imminent threat to almost all biological systems across the globe.In recent years there have been a series of studies showing how changes in climate can impact infectious disease transmission.Many of these publications focus on simulations based on in silico data,shadowing empirical research based on feld and laboratory data.A synthesis work of empirical climate change and infectious disease research is still lacking.Methods We conducted a systemic review of research from 2015 to 2020 period on climate change and infectious diseases to identify major trends and current gaps of research.Literature was sourced from Web of Science and PubMed literary repositories using a key word search,and was reviewed using a delineated inclusion criteria by a team of reviewers.Results Our review revealed that both taxonomic and geographic biases are present in climate and infectious disease research,specifcally with regard to types of disease transmission and localities studied.Empirical investigations on vector-borne diseases associated with mosquitoes comprised the majority of research on the climate change and infectious disease literature.Furthermore,demographic trends in the institutions and individuals published revealed research bias towards research conducted across temperate,high-income countries.We also identifed key trends in funding sources for most resent literature and a discrepancy in the gender identities of publishing authors which may refect current systemic inequities in the scientifc feld.Conclusions Future research lines on climate change and infectious diseases should considered diseases of direct transmission(non-vector-borne)and more research efort in the tropics.Inclusion of local research in low-and middle-income countries was generally neglected.Research on climate change and infectious disease has failed to be socially inclusive,geographically balanced,and broad in terms of the disease systems studied,limiting our capacities to better understand the actual efects of climate change on health.展开更多
Background The term virus'spillover’embodies a highly complex phenomenon and is often used to refer to viral transmission from a primary reservoir host to a new,naïve yet susceptible and permissive host spec...Background The term virus'spillover’embodies a highly complex phenomenon and is often used to refer to viral transmission from a primary reservoir host to a new,naïve yet susceptible and permissive host species.Spillover transmission can result in a virus becoming pathogenic,causing disease and death to the new host if successful infection and transmission takes place.Main text The scientific literature across diverse disciplines has used the terms virus spillover,spillover transmission,cross-species transmission,and host shift almost indistinctly to imply the complex process of establishment of a virus from an original host(source/donor)to a naïve host(recipient),which have close or distant taxonomic or evolutionary ties.Spillover transmission may result in unsuccessful onward transmission,if the virus dies off before propagation.Alternatively,successful viral establishment in the new host can occur if subsequent secondary transmission among individuals of the same novel species and among other sympatric susceptible species occurred.As such,virus spillover transmission is a common yet highly complex phenomenon that encompasses multiple subtle stages that can be deconstructed to be studied separately to better understand the drivers of disease emergence.Rabies virus(RABV)is a well-documented viral pathogen which still inflicts heavy impact on humans,companion animals,wildlife,and livestock throughout Latin America due substantial spatial temporal and ecological—natural and expansional—overlap with several virus reservoir hosts.Thereby,the rabies disease system represents a robust avenue through which the drivers and uncertainties surrounding spillover transmission can be unravel at its different subtle stages to better understand how they may be affected by coarse,medium,and fine scale variables.Conclusions The continued study of viral spillover transmission necessitates the elucidation of its complexities to better assess the cross-scale impacts of ecological forces linked to the propensity of spillover success.Improving capacities to reconstruct and predict spillover transmission would prevent public health impacts on those most at risk populations across the globe.展开更多
Background Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders.Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical di...Background Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders.Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases.For example,poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission.Nevertheless,the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored.Methods This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data(2007–2018)from Brazil.Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue,malaria,Chagas disease,leishmaniasis,and Brazilian spotted fever,while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis,leptospirosis,and hantaviruses.Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared.Results Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales.The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy(or predictive power)by 10%on average(P<0.01),reaching a maximum of 18%in the case of dengue fever.Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable(37%relative variable importance,all individual models exhibited P<0.00),showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission.Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable(42%relative variable importance,P<0.05)among environmental models,exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability,showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in areas where natural ecosystem destruction is on its initial stages and lower when ecosystem destruction is on more advanced stages.Conclusions Destruction of natural ecosystems coupled with low income explain macro-scale neglected tropical and zoonotic disease probability in Brazil.Addition of socioeconomic variables improves transmission risk forecasts on tandem with environmental variables.Our results highlight that to efficiently address neglected tropical diseases,public health strategies must target both reduction of poverty and cessation of destruction of natural forests and savannas.展开更多
基金This project was funded by the U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service Tribal Wildlife Grant,U.S.Environmental Protection Agency Great Lakes Restoration InitiativeBureau of Indian Affairs Endangered Species Program+1 种基金Funding was also provided by the Minnesota Zoo Ulysses S.Seal Conservation GrantIndianapolis Zoo Conservation Fund.
文摘Enhanced vegetation index(EVI)data can be used to identify and define the space in which ungulates practice parturition and encounter predation.This study explores the use of EVI data to identify landscapes linked to ungulate parturition and predation events across space,time,and environmental conditions.As a case study,we used the moose population(Alces alces)of northern Minnesota in the USA.Using remotely sensed EVI data rasters and global positioning system collar data,we quantified how vegetation phenology and moose movement shaped the births and predation of 52 moose calves from 2013 to 2020 on or adjacent to the Grand Portage Indian Reservation.The known sources of predation were American black bears(Ursus americanus,n=22)and gray wolves(Canis lupus,n=28).Satellite-derived data summarizing seasonal landscape features at the local level revealed that landscape heterogeneity use by moose can help to quantitatively identify landscapes of parturition and predation in space and time across large areas.Vegetation phenology proved to be differentiable between adult moose ranges,sites of cow parturition,and sites of calf predation.Landscape characteristics of each moose group were consistent and tractable based on environment,suggesting that sites of parturition and predation of moose are predictable in space and time.It is possible that moose selected specific landscapes for parturition despite risk of increased predation of their calves,which could be an example of an"ecological trap."This analytical framework can be employed to identify areas for future ungulate research on the impacts of landscape on parturition and predation dynamics.
文摘Background Vector-borne diseases(VBDs)are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential,which can result in signifcant population and economic impacts.Oropouche fever,caused by Oropouche virus(OROV),is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America.The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored,limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance.Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV,we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data,coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phe‑nology.Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas.Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of diferent parameters such as diferent study areas and environmental predictors.Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV.Nevertheless,the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections.For example,some out‑breaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur.The distribu‑tion models also revealed that landscape variation,expressed as vegetation loss,is linked to OROV outbreaks.Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America.Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence.Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understand‑ing exists on their sylvatic cycles.OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance,investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology,and inform early detection.
文摘Background Climate change presents an imminent threat to almost all biological systems across the globe.In recent years there have been a series of studies showing how changes in climate can impact infectious disease transmission.Many of these publications focus on simulations based on in silico data,shadowing empirical research based on feld and laboratory data.A synthesis work of empirical climate change and infectious disease research is still lacking.Methods We conducted a systemic review of research from 2015 to 2020 period on climate change and infectious diseases to identify major trends and current gaps of research.Literature was sourced from Web of Science and PubMed literary repositories using a key word search,and was reviewed using a delineated inclusion criteria by a team of reviewers.Results Our review revealed that both taxonomic and geographic biases are present in climate and infectious disease research,specifcally with regard to types of disease transmission and localities studied.Empirical investigations on vector-borne diseases associated with mosquitoes comprised the majority of research on the climate change and infectious disease literature.Furthermore,demographic trends in the institutions and individuals published revealed research bias towards research conducted across temperate,high-income countries.We also identifed key trends in funding sources for most resent literature and a discrepancy in the gender identities of publishing authors which may refect current systemic inequities in the scientifc feld.Conclusions Future research lines on climate change and infectious diseases should considered diseases of direct transmission(non-vector-borne)and more research efort in the tropics.Inclusion of local research in low-and middle-income countries was generally neglected.Research on climate change and infectious disease has failed to be socially inclusive,geographically balanced,and broad in terms of the disease systems studied,limiting our capacities to better understand the actual efects of climate change on health.
基金the National Science Foundation award:Human-Environment and Geographical Sciences Program 2116748Institute for Critical Technology and Applied Science,Virginia Tech:ICTAS-JFP-2022-2023the VT Open Access Subvention Fund.
文摘Background The term virus'spillover’embodies a highly complex phenomenon and is often used to refer to viral transmission from a primary reservoir host to a new,naïve yet susceptible and permissive host species.Spillover transmission can result in a virus becoming pathogenic,causing disease and death to the new host if successful infection and transmission takes place.Main text The scientific literature across diverse disciplines has used the terms virus spillover,spillover transmission,cross-species transmission,and host shift almost indistinctly to imply the complex process of establishment of a virus from an original host(source/donor)to a naïve host(recipient),which have close or distant taxonomic or evolutionary ties.Spillover transmission may result in unsuccessful onward transmission,if the virus dies off before propagation.Alternatively,successful viral establishment in the new host can occur if subsequent secondary transmission among individuals of the same novel species and among other sympatric susceptible species occurred.As such,virus spillover transmission is a common yet highly complex phenomenon that encompasses multiple subtle stages that can be deconstructed to be studied separately to better understand the drivers of disease emergence.Rabies virus(RABV)is a well-documented viral pathogen which still inflicts heavy impact on humans,companion animals,wildlife,and livestock throughout Latin America due substantial spatial temporal and ecological—natural and expansional—overlap with several virus reservoir hosts.Thereby,the rabies disease system represents a robust avenue through which the drivers and uncertainties surrounding spillover transmission can be unravel at its different subtle stages to better understand how they may be affected by coarse,medium,and fine scale variables.Conclusions The continued study of viral spillover transmission necessitates the elucidation of its complexities to better assess the cross-scale impacts of ecological forces linked to the propensity of spillover success.Improving capacities to reconstruct and predict spillover transmission would prevent public health impacts on those most at risk populations across the globe.
文摘Background Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders.Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases.For example,poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission.Nevertheless,the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored.Methods This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data(2007–2018)from Brazil.Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue,malaria,Chagas disease,leishmaniasis,and Brazilian spotted fever,while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis,leptospirosis,and hantaviruses.Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared.Results Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales.The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy(or predictive power)by 10%on average(P<0.01),reaching a maximum of 18%in the case of dengue fever.Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable(37%relative variable importance,all individual models exhibited P<0.00),showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission.Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable(42%relative variable importance,P<0.05)among environmental models,exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability,showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in areas where natural ecosystem destruction is on its initial stages and lower when ecosystem destruction is on more advanced stages.Conclusions Destruction of natural ecosystems coupled with low income explain macro-scale neglected tropical and zoonotic disease probability in Brazil.Addition of socioeconomic variables improves transmission risk forecasts on tandem with environmental variables.Our results highlight that to efficiently address neglected tropical diseases,public health strategies must target both reduction of poverty and cessation of destruction of natural forests and savannas.
