The sea surface temperature （SST） has substantial impacts on the climate; however, due to its highly nonlinear nature, evidently non-periodic and strongly stochastic properties, it is rather difficult to predict SST...The sea surface temperature （SST） has substantial impacts on the climate; however, due to its highly nonlinear nature, evidently non-periodic and strongly stochastic properties, it is rather difficult to predict SST. Here, the authors combine the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition （CEEMD） and support vector machine （SVM） methods to predict SST. Extensive tests from several different aspects are presented to validate the effectiveness of the CEEMD-SVM method. The results suggest that the new method works well in forecasting Northeast Pacific SST at a 12-month lead time, with an average absolute error of approximately 0.3℃ and a correlation coefficient of 0.85. Moreover, no spring predictability barrier is observed in our experiments.展开更多
基金supported in part by the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number91530204]the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41430426]
文摘The sea surface temperature （SST） has substantial impacts on the climate; however, due to its highly nonlinear nature, evidently non-periodic and strongly stochastic properties, it is rather difficult to predict SST. Here, the authors combine the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition （CEEMD） and support vector machine （SVM） methods to predict SST. Extensive tests from several different aspects are presented to validate the effectiveness of the CEEMD-SVM method. The results suggest that the new method works well in forecasting Northeast Pacific SST at a 12-month lead time, with an average absolute error of approximately 0.3℃ and a correlation coefficient of 0.85. Moreover, no spring predictability barrier is observed in our experiments.
