Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United St...Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.展开更多
A comparison of two decision analysis tools for the analysis of strategic conflicts, the Analytic Network Process （ANP） and the graph model for conflict resolution, is carried out by applying them to the China-US TV...A comparison of two decision analysis tools for the analysis of strategic conflicts, the Analytic Network Process （ANP） and the graph model for conflict resolution, is carried out by applying them to the China-US TV dumping conflict. Firstly, the graph model is introduced along with practical procedures for modeling and analyzing conflicts using the decision support software, GMCR Ⅱ. Next, ANP is explained, emphasizing structural features and procedures for synthesizing priorities. Then a framework for employing ANP to analyze strategic conflicts is designed and used to compare ANP to the graph model. The case study of the China-US TV dumping conflict provides a basis for the graph model and ANP to be compared; different features of the approaches are highlighted. The study shows that because of different theoretical backgrounds, ANP and the graph model for conflict analysis both provide useful information which can be combined to furnish a better understanding of a strategic conflict.展开更多
An option prioritization technique is developed to efficiently elicit the preferences, both unknown and crisp, of decision makers （DMs） in strategic conflicts. In the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, each DM has...An option prioritization technique is developed to efficiently elicit the preferences, both unknown and crisp, of decision makers （DMs） in strategic conflicts. In the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, each DM has one or more options, each of which may be selected or not. A state, or possible scenario, is formed when all DMs make an option selection. The software GMCR II contains an option prioritization procedure that makes it easy for a modeUer to enter a DM＇s crisp preference ordering over the states using prioritized statements describing the DM＇s preferred option combinations. This procedure is extended by adding two new logical connectives that describe uncertainty of preference. For each DM, a range of possible scores for each feasible state can then be calculated, facilitating the determination of a preference ordering containing uncertainty by comparing and ranking scores. To demonstrate how this new methodology can be used to represent tmknown preferences in a real-world decision problem, it is applied to a Canadian dispute over proposed water exports.展开更多
The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly,...The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.展开更多
A formal policy development framework, based on a system of systems （SOS） approach, is synthesized to systematically address, in an integrative and adaptive fashion, major global challenges, such as the current food...A formal policy development framework, based on a system of systems （SOS） approach, is synthesized to systematically address, in an integrative and adaptive fashion, major global challenges, such as the current food and fjnancial crises, and their interactions with other key natural, societal, and technological systems. A SoS approach seeks to respect the different value systems of multiple participants, to harness complexity through effective integration, and to engage the world of uncertainty and unpredictability with an adaptive response. Faced with the present global challenges, what is needed are strategic and operational methods which lead to ethical policies, enhance integrative and adaptive management practices, and are able to direct conflict resolution in a positive direction. Policy makers need tools to model and analyze complex systems which they are trying to responsibly govern, taking into account values and risks to design and evaluate different policies. A preliminary investigation into the global food system is undertaken to understand the SoS and to provide insights on how to carry out policy development using the proposed framework.展开更多
The strategic decisions and resulting consequences surrounding the conflict between the United States of America (US) and Iran regarding the Iranian nuclear program are formally investigated using a flexible decision ...The strategic decisions and resulting consequences surrounding the conflict between the United States of America (US) and Iran regarding the Iranian nuclear program are formally investigated using a flexible decision methodology called the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). This highly controversial dispute caught the world's attention as concerns were growing that Iran would reach a position where it would be able to build nuclear weapons, thereby posing a risk to world security. While Iran insisted on its rights for the peaceful use of nuclear technology;the international community;led by the US, tried to discourage the nuclear activities of Iran to ensure its obligations to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. This led to an escalation of tension on both sides, with an extension of the nuclear program by Iran and an increase in sanctions by the US, before it was possible to arrive at a negotiated agreement. As demonstrated in this paper, a systematic GMCR investigation provides valuable strategic insights into this important conflict. Further, it illustrates ways in which the conflict could have evolved, as well as mechanisms for stopping an escalation like this in the future.展开更多
A multiple criteria decision analysis （MCDA） approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in ＇a conflict. More specifically, an MCDA approach based on the outr...A multiple criteria decision analysis （MCDA） approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in ＇a conflict. More specifically, an MCDA approach based on the outranking method, ELECTRE III, is employed for ranking states or possible scenarios in the conflict from most to least preferred, where ties are allowed, for a decision maker according to his or her value system. To demonstrate how this preference elicitation methodology can be conveniently implemented in practice within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, it is applied to a real world water supply crisis which occurred in the town of North Battleford, located in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan.展开更多
The key objective of this special issue of the Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering (JSSSE) is to assess papers con? taining leading-edge ideas on the theory and practice of conflict resolution and group...The key objective of this special issue of the Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering (JSSSE) is to assess papers con? taining leading-edge ideas on the theory and practice of conflict resolution and group decision making. Earlier versions of these fine papers were originally delivered by the authors at the 18th International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation (GDN) which was held in Nanjing, China, from June 9 to 13,2018 (GDN 2018), and which appeared as extended abstracts in a conference proceedings ed让ed by Jiang et al.展开更多
文摘Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.
文摘A comparison of two decision analysis tools for the analysis of strategic conflicts, the Analytic Network Process （ANP） and the graph model for conflict resolution, is carried out by applying them to the China-US TV dumping conflict. Firstly, the graph model is introduced along with practical procedures for modeling and analyzing conflicts using the decision support software, GMCR Ⅱ. Next, ANP is explained, emphasizing structural features and procedures for synthesizing priorities. Then a framework for employing ANP to analyze strategic conflicts is designed and used to compare ANP to the graph model. The case study of the China-US TV dumping conflict provides a basis for the graph model and ANP to be compared; different features of the approaches are highlighted. The study shows that because of different theoretical backgrounds, ANP and the graph model for conflict analysis both provide useful information which can be combined to furnish a better understanding of a strategic conflict.
基金Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Scientific Innovation Project of Graduate Students in Jiangsu Province in China （Grant No. CXZZ12-0263）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 71471087）, as well as by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The authors wish to express their sincere appreciation to the anonymous referees, the Associate Editor, and the editor-in-chief for furnishing comments and constructive suggestions that significantly improved the quality of their article. The authors would also like to thank Mr. Conrad Hipel for editing the paper.
文摘An option prioritization technique is developed to efficiently elicit the preferences, both unknown and crisp, of decision makers （DMs） in strategic conflicts. In the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, each DM has one or more options, each of which may be selected or not. A state, or possible scenario, is formed when all DMs make an option selection. The software GMCR II contains an option prioritization procedure that makes it easy for a modeUer to enter a DM＇s crisp preference ordering over the states using prioritized statements describing the DM＇s preferred option combinations. This procedure is extended by adding two new logical connectives that describe uncertainty of preference. For each DM, a range of possible scores for each feasible state can then be calculated, facilitating the determination of a preference ordering containing uncertainty by comparing and ranking scores. To demonstrate how this new methodology can be used to represent tmknown preferences in a real-world decision problem, it is applied to a Canadian dispute over proposed water exports.
文摘The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.
基金support received from a strategic grant entitled"Systems Engineering Approaches for Brownfield Redevelopment"from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council(NSERC) of Canada,from the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI),and from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council(SSHRC) of Canada
文摘A formal policy development framework, based on a system of systems （SOS） approach, is synthesized to systematically address, in an integrative and adaptive fashion, major global challenges, such as the current food and fjnancial crises, and their interactions with other key natural, societal, and technological systems. A SoS approach seeks to respect the different value systems of multiple participants, to harness complexity through effective integration, and to engage the world of uncertainty and unpredictability with an adaptive response. Faced with the present global challenges, what is needed are strategic and operational methods which lead to ethical policies, enhance integrative and adaptive management practices, and are able to direct conflict resolution in a positive direction. Policy makers need tools to model and analyze complex systems which they are trying to responsibly govern, taking into account values and risks to design and evaluate different policies. A preliminary investigation into the global food system is undertaken to understand the SoS and to provide insights on how to carry out policy development using the proposed framework.
文摘The strategic decisions and resulting consequences surrounding the conflict between the United States of America (US) and Iran regarding the Iranian nuclear program are formally investigated using a flexible decision methodology called the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). This highly controversial dispute caught the world's attention as concerns were growing that Iran would reach a position where it would be able to build nuclear weapons, thereby posing a risk to world security. While Iran insisted on its rights for the peaceful use of nuclear technology;the international community;led by the US, tried to discourage the nuclear activities of Iran to ensure its obligations to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. This led to an escalation of tension on both sides, with an extension of the nuclear program by Iran and an increase in sanctions by the US, before it was possible to arrive at a negotiated agreement. As demonstrated in this paper, a systematic GMCR investigation provides valuable strategic insights into this important conflict. Further, it illustrates ways in which the conflict could have evolved, as well as mechanisms for stopping an escalation like this in the future.
文摘A multiple criteria decision analysis （MCDA） approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in ＇a conflict. More specifically, an MCDA approach based on the outranking method, ELECTRE III, is employed for ranking states or possible scenarios in the conflict from most to least preferred, where ties are allowed, for a decision maker according to his or her value system. To demonstrate how this preference elicitation methodology can be conveniently implemented in practice within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, it is applied to a real world water supply crisis which occurred in the town of North Battleford, located in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan.
文摘The key objective of this special issue of the Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering (JSSSE) is to assess papers con? taining leading-edge ideas on the theory and practice of conflict resolution and group decision making. Earlier versions of these fine papers were originally delivered by the authors at the 18th International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation (GDN) which was held in Nanjing, China, from June 9 to 13,2018 (GDN 2018), and which appeared as extended abstracts in a conference proceedings ed让ed by Jiang et al.
