Extreme precipitation events pose significant challenges to water resources,ag-riculture,infrastructure,public health,ecosystems,energy production,fishing,timber production,and other rain-dependent socioeconomic secto...Extreme precipitation events pose significant challenges to water resources,ag-riculture,infrastructure,public health,ecosystems,energy production,fishing,timber production,and other rain-dependent socioeconomic sectors across Eastern Africa,threatening the environment and regional livelihoods.This study analyzes spatial and temporal trends of extreme precipitation in Eastern Africa from January 1981 to 2023,using high-resolution CHIRPS data.Key ex-treme precipitation indices,including R10mm,R75p,and SDII,were calculated to assess variations in the frequency,intensity,and contribution of extreme rainfall events.The temporal analysis reveals a statistically significant increas-ing trend in January precipitation(0.844 mm/year,p=0.0191),confirmed by Sen’s Slope(0.74 mm/year).R10mm increased by 0.036 days/year(p=0.0079),with Sen’s Slope estimating 0.04 days/year.R75p showed a rise of 0.025 days/year(p=0.0113),with Sen’s Slope at 0.02 days/year.SDII exhibited the most significant trend,increasing by 0.056 mm/day per year(p=0.0002),with Sen’s Slope at 0.06 mm/day per year.These results indicate a rise in extreme precipitation in Eastern Africa,increasing the risk of flooding and other cli-mate-related hazards.Spatial analysis shows distinct regional variations,with Southern Tanzania,Mozambique,Malawi,Zambia,Zimbabwe,and Madagas-car exhibiting statistically significant increasing trends in January precipitation and extreme precipitation indices.These regions are becoming more vulnera-ble to flooding and other climate-related hazards.Moreover,correlation anal-ysis identifies significant links between global SST anomalies and extreme pre-cipitation trends,demonstrating the influence of large-scale climate drivers.The study indicates the growing intensity and frequency of extreme precipita-tion in parts of Eastern Africa,significantly influenced by the South Pacific Convergence Zone(SPCZ).This necessitates a deeper understanding of SPCZ dynamics and their impacts on precipitation patterns to enhance climate pre-diction and develop adaptive strategies for mitigating extreme weather events.Such efforts will contribute to safeguarding water resources,agriculture,infra-structure,public health,energy production,fisheries,transportation,and live-lihoods across the region.展开更多
文摘Extreme precipitation events pose significant challenges to water resources,ag-riculture,infrastructure,public health,ecosystems,energy production,fishing,timber production,and other rain-dependent socioeconomic sectors across Eastern Africa,threatening the environment and regional livelihoods.This study analyzes spatial and temporal trends of extreme precipitation in Eastern Africa from January 1981 to 2023,using high-resolution CHIRPS data.Key ex-treme precipitation indices,including R10mm,R75p,and SDII,were calculated to assess variations in the frequency,intensity,and contribution of extreme rainfall events.The temporal analysis reveals a statistically significant increas-ing trend in January precipitation(0.844 mm/year,p=0.0191),confirmed by Sen’s Slope(0.74 mm/year).R10mm increased by 0.036 days/year(p=0.0079),with Sen’s Slope estimating 0.04 days/year.R75p showed a rise of 0.025 days/year(p=0.0113),with Sen’s Slope at 0.02 days/year.SDII exhibited the most significant trend,increasing by 0.056 mm/day per year(p=0.0002),with Sen’s Slope at 0.06 mm/day per year.These results indicate a rise in extreme precipitation in Eastern Africa,increasing the risk of flooding and other cli-mate-related hazards.Spatial analysis shows distinct regional variations,with Southern Tanzania,Mozambique,Malawi,Zambia,Zimbabwe,and Madagas-car exhibiting statistically significant increasing trends in January precipitation and extreme precipitation indices.These regions are becoming more vulnera-ble to flooding and other climate-related hazards.Moreover,correlation anal-ysis identifies significant links between global SST anomalies and extreme pre-cipitation trends,demonstrating the influence of large-scale climate drivers.The study indicates the growing intensity and frequency of extreme precipita-tion in parts of Eastern Africa,significantly influenced by the South Pacific Convergence Zone(SPCZ).This necessitates a deeper understanding of SPCZ dynamics and their impacts on precipitation patterns to enhance climate pre-diction and develop adaptive strategies for mitigating extreme weather events.Such efforts will contribute to safeguarding water resources,agriculture,infra-structure,public health,energy production,fisheries,transportation,and live-lihoods across the region.
