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论气候变化的社会影响
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作者 J.C.Gaillard Michael Glantz +3 位作者 ilan kelman Ben Wisner Zenaida Delica-Willison Mark Keim 《上海保险》 2015年第5期50-51,共2页
在全球范围内,与气候有关的灾害正在不断增多。灾害流行病学研究中心的EM-DAT数据库(2013)在1981年到1990年间记录了879次重大的气候灾害;1991年至2000年,这一数字为1523次;而从2001年到2010年则达到了2451次。40年前,科学家和政策制... 在全球范围内,与气候有关的灾害正在不断增多。灾害流行病学研究中心的EM-DAT数据库(2013)在1981年到1990年间记录了879次重大的气候灾害;1991年至2000年,这一数字为1523次;而从2001年到2010年则达到了2451次。40年前,科学家和政策制定者都观察到了自然灾害引起的损失逐渐上升这一令人不安的结果。当时一位学者认为, 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 社会影响 气候灾害 2010年 2001年 政策制定者 流行病学 自然灾害
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Editorial Introduction:10 Years After and 5 Years to Go for the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
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作者 ilan kelman 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 2025年第1期1-3,共3页
1 Happy Birthday to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction!Happy 10th birthday to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030(SFDRR)!On 18 March 2015,it was signed,contributing to the wider Ag... 1 Happy Birthday to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction!Happy 10th birthday to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030(SFDRR)!On 18 March 2015,it was signed,contributing to the wider Agenda 2030 that embraces sustainable development,climate change,humanitarianism,development finance,and many others.It focuses on reducing the risk of disasters within the wider aims to do better for ourselves. 展开更多
关键词 disaster risk reduction sustainable development Sendai Framework development finance reducing risk disasters climate change AGENDA HUMANITARIANISM
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Climate Change’s Role in Disaster Risk Reduction’s Future:Beyond Vulnerability and Resilience 被引量:21
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作者 ilan kelman JC Gaillard Jessica Mercer 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第1期21-27,共7页
A seminal policy year for development and sustainability occurs in 2015 due to three parallel processes that seek long-term agreements for climate change, the Sustainable Development Goals, and disaster risk reduction... A seminal policy year for development and sustainability occurs in 2015 due to three parallel processes that seek long-term agreements for climate change, the Sustainable Development Goals, and disaster risk reduction.Little reason exists to separate them, since all three examine and aim to deal with many similar processes, including vulnerability and resilience. This article uses vulnerability and resilience to explore the intersections and overlaps amongst climate change, disaster risk reduction, and sustainability. Critiquing concepts such as 'return to normal'and 'double exposure'demonstrate how separating climate change from wider contexts is counterproductive. Climate change is one contributor to disaster risk and one creeping environmental change amongst many, and not necessarily the most prominent or fundamental contributor. Yet climate change has become politically important, yielding an opportunity to highlight and tackle the deep-rooted vulnerability processes that cause 'multiple exposure'to multiple threats. To enhance resilience processes that deal with the challenges, a prudent place for climate changewould be as a subset within disaster risk reduction. Climate change adaptation therefore becomes one of many processes within disaster risk reduction. In turn, disaster risk reduction should sit within development and sustainability to avoid isolation from topics wider than disaster risk. Integration of the topics in this way moves beyond expressions of vulnerability and resilience towards a vision of disaster risk reduction’s future that ends tribalism and separation in order to work together to achieve common goals for humanity. 展开更多
关键词 ADAPTATION Climate change Disaster risk reduction MITIGATION RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY
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Climate Change and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 被引量:16
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作者 ilan kelman 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第2期117-127,共11页
This article reviews climate change within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), analyzing how climate change is mentioned in the framework’s text and the potential implications for deal... This article reviews climate change within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), analyzing how climate change is mentioned in the framework’s text and the potential implications for dealing with climate change within the context of disaster risk reduction. Three main categories are examined. First,climate change affecting disaster risk and disasters,demonstrating too much emphasis on the single hazard driver and diminisher of climate change. Second, crosssectoral approaches, for which the SFDRR treads carefully,thereby unfortunately entrenching artificial differences and divisions, although appropriately offering plenty of support to other sectors from disaster risk reduction. Third,implementation, for which climate change plays a suitable role without being overbearing, but for which other hazard influencers should have been treated similarly. Overall, the mentions of climate change within the SFDRR put too much emphasis on the hazard part of disaster risk. Instead,within the context of the three global sustainable development processes that seek agreements in 2015, climate change could have been used to further support an allvulnerabilities and all-resiliences approach. That could be achieved by placing climate change adaptation as one subset within disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation as one subset within sustainable development. 展开更多
关键词 Climate change Climate change adaptation Climate change mitigation Climate variability Disaster mitigation Disaster risk reduction
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Analyzing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 被引量:2
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作者 ilan kelman Michael HGlantz 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第2期105-106,共2页
On 11 March 2011,a massive,shallow earthquake off the east coast of Japan demonstrated the remarkable successes which that country has achieved in earthquake engineering.Building collapses tended to be mainly older st... On 11 March 2011,a massive,shallow earthquake off the east coast of Japan demonstrated the remarkable successes which that country has achieved in earthquake engineering.Building collapses tended to be mainly older structures while comparatively few deaths resulted from the shaking(including from landslides),illustrating how decades of initiatives and efforts in disaster risk reduction can reduce vulnerability,ensuring that a hazard does not 展开更多
关键词 for IS WORK from of in
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Lost for Words Amongst Disaster Risk Science Vocabulary? 被引量:2
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作者 ilan kelman 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第3期281-291,共11页
Like other subjects, disaster risk science has developed its own vocabulary with glossaries. Some keywords, such as resilience, have an extensive literature on definitions, meanings, and interpretations. Other terms h... Like other subjects, disaster risk science has developed its own vocabulary with glossaries. Some keywords, such as resilience, have an extensive literature on definitions, meanings, and interpretations. Other terms have been less explored. This article investigates core disaster risk science vocabulary that has not received extensive attention in terms of examining the meanings,interpretations, and connotations based on key United Nations glossaries. The terms covered are hazard, vulnerability, disaster risk, and the linked concepts of disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management. Following a presentation and analysis of the glossary-based definitions,discussion draws out understandings of disasters and disaster risk science, which the glossaries do not fully provide in depth, especially vulnerability and disasters as processes. Application of the results leads to considering the possibility of a focus on risk rather than disaster risk while simplifying vocabulary by moving away from disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management. 展开更多
关键词 DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK management(DRM) DISASTER RISK reduction(DRR) HAZARD Vulnerability
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Thoughts on Dealing with Climate Change…As if the Future Matters 被引量:3
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作者 Michael H.Glantz ilan kelman 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2013年第1期1-8,共8页
This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of inte... This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of interpreting what is often presented on climate change without considering how the audience receives that information and might or might not be inspired to take action based on it. Different meanings of “change” are examined in the context of “climate change.” The term “adaptation” is similarly analyzed. Based on the understanding of those terms, four notions are defined and outlined in relation to decision-making for climate change adaptation: Ignorance versus “Ignore-ance,” surprise, foreseeability, and forecasting by analogy. The conclusions explore the interlinkages between society and the environment as well as how to turn lessons identified into lessons that are actually learned in order to be implemented. Achieving inspiration is not straightforward, but without it, the future will be bleak under a changing society and environment. 展开更多
关键词 forecasting ANALOGY STRAIGHT
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Critiquing and Joining Intersections of Disaster,Conflict,and Peace Research 被引量:1
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作者 Laura E.R.Peters ilan kelman 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第5期555-567,共13页
Disaster research,conflict research,and peace research have rich and deep histories,yet they do not always fully intersect or learn from each other,even when they investigate if and how disasters lead to conflict or p... Disaster research,conflict research,and peace research have rich and deep histories,yet they do not always fully intersect or learn from each other,even when they investigate if and how disasters lead to conflict or peace.Scholarship has tended to focus on investigating causal linkages between disaster(including those associated with climate change)and conflict,and disaster diplomacy emerged as a thread of explanatory research that investigates how and why disaster-related activities do and do not in fluence peace and conflict.However,definitive conclusions on the disaster-conflict-peace nexus have evaded scientific consensus,in part due to conceptual,methodological,and interpretive differences among studies.This article highlights that this nexus would benefit from a more robust engagement with each field's foundational research that explores beyond binary and crude distinctions.Examples are concepts of destructive and constructive conflict;direct,structural,and cultural violence,and their relationships to vulnerability;negative and positive peace;and the ideals and realities of peacebuilding and conflict transformation.This article demonstrates how integrated scholarship could open up and advance new lines of questioning,with implications for developing cohere nt research,policy,and practice.The article concludes by offering recommendations for how to better connect disaster,conflict,and peace research. 展开更多
关键词 Climate change Conflict research Disaster diplomacy Disaster risk reduction Peace research
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Introduction to “Five Years of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction” 被引量:1
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作者 ilan kelman 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第2期145-146,共2页
Are birthdays important, especially for documents? While some might use the candles on the cake as an excuse to burn the offending paper, they also offer a chance to reflect on any milestones or achievements that were... Are birthdays important, especially for documents? While some might use the candles on the cake as an excuse to burn the offending paper, they also offer a chance to reflect on any milestones or achievements that were hoped for while examining possible futures based on guidance from the document. Thus was born the idea of this special issue on "Five Years of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction." 展开更多
关键词 FRAMEWORK REDUCTION hoped
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