The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes.An alternative for the estimation is based on a spa...The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes.An alternative for the estimation is based on a spatially smoothed source model.However,a quantification of differences in the Canadian seismic hazard maps(CanSHMs)obtained based on the delineated seismic source model and spatially smoothed model is unavailable.The quantification is valuable to identify epistemic uncertainty in the estimated seismic hazard and the degree of uncertainty in the CanSHMs.In the present study,we developed seismic source models using spatial smoothing and historical earthquake catalogue.We quantified the differences in the estimated Canadian seismic hazard by considering the delineated source model and spatially smoothed source models.For the development of the spatially smoothed seismic source models,we considered spatial kernel smoothing techniques with or without adaptive bandwidth.The results indicate that the use of the delineated seismic source model could lead to under or over-estimation of the seismic hazard as compared to those estimated based on spatially smoothed seismic source models.This suggests that an epistemic uncertainty caused by the seismic source models should be considered to map the seismic hazard.展开更多
In this study,a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model(HSHM)in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map(NS...In this study,a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model(HSHM)in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map(NSGM)and historical seismic catalogues and integrating with modern ground motion prediction equations(GMPEs).This model incorporates the characteristics of smoothed seismicity and areal sources for regional seismic hazard assessment.The probabilistic seismic hazard for the North China Plain earthquake belt was investigated through sensitivity analysis related to the seismicity model and GMPEs.The analysis results indicate that the Hybrid model can produce a consistent result with the NSGM model in many cases.However,the NSGM model tends to overestimate hazard values in locations where no major events have occurred and underestimate hazard values in locations where major events have occurred.The Hybrid model can mitigate the degree of such biases.Compared to the modern GMPEs,the GMPE with epicentral distance measures significantly underestimate the seismic hazard under near-field and large-magnitude scenarios.In addition,a comparison of the uniform hazard spectra(UHS)obtained by the models,with China's design spectrum,shows that the current design spectrum is more conservative than the calculated UHS.展开更多
基金The support of the Fundamental Research Funds from the Central Universities,CHD(Grant No.300102282103)Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi(Program No.2023-JC-QN-0512)Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen)。
文摘The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes.An alternative for the estimation is based on a spatially smoothed source model.However,a quantification of differences in the Canadian seismic hazard maps(CanSHMs)obtained based on the delineated seismic source model and spatially smoothed model is unavailable.The quantification is valuable to identify epistemic uncertainty in the estimated seismic hazard and the degree of uncertainty in the CanSHMs.In the present study,we developed seismic source models using spatial smoothing and historical earthquake catalogue.We quantified the differences in the estimated Canadian seismic hazard by considering the delineated source model and spatially smoothed source models.For the development of the spatially smoothed seismic source models,we considered spatial kernel smoothing techniques with or without adaptive bandwidth.The results indicate that the use of the delineated seismic source model could lead to under or over-estimation of the seismic hazard as compared to those estimated based on spatially smoothed seismic source models.This suggests that an epistemic uncertainty caused by the seismic source models should be considered to map the seismic hazard.
基金financial support from the Scientific Research Fund of the Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant No.2023B09)。
文摘In this study,a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model(HSHM)in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map(NSGM)and historical seismic catalogues and integrating with modern ground motion prediction equations(GMPEs).This model incorporates the characteristics of smoothed seismicity and areal sources for regional seismic hazard assessment.The probabilistic seismic hazard for the North China Plain earthquake belt was investigated through sensitivity analysis related to the seismicity model and GMPEs.The analysis results indicate that the Hybrid model can produce a consistent result with the NSGM model in many cases.However,the NSGM model tends to overestimate hazard values in locations where no major events have occurred and underestimate hazard values in locations where major events have occurred.The Hybrid model can mitigate the degree of such biases.Compared to the modern GMPEs,the GMPE with epicentral distance measures significantly underestimate the seismic hazard under near-field and large-magnitude scenarios.In addition,a comparison of the uniform hazard spectra(UHS)obtained by the models,with China's design spectrum,shows that the current design spectrum is more conservative than the calculated UHS.
