The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,one of the remaining mountainous tropical forest areas in Timor Island,eastern Indonesia that covers an area of 31,984 ha,tends to decrease gradually.Efforts to secure mountain forest fu...The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,one of the remaining mountainous tropical forest areas in Timor Island,eastern Indonesia that covers an area of 31,984 ha,tends to decrease gradually.Efforts to secure mountain forest functions and counteract the negative impact of declining forest areas are often constrained by data uncertainty on factors contributing to deforestation.For this reason,this study attempts to develop models of deforestation and predict future deforestation in the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex.We constructed models of deforestation that describe the relationship between deforestation and factors contributing to deforestation using spatial statistical models.In this model,we used the deforestation data for the 1987-2017 period obtained from a previous study as dependent variables and the potential causes of deforestation generated from Geographic Information System spatial analysis as independent variables.Using the probability of deforestation derived from the model,we predicted future deforestation under two different scenarios,namely,business-as-usual(as the reference scenario)and reducing emission fromdeforestation and forest degradation.Our findings showed that a positive relationship exists between probability of deforestation,distance to the settlement,and population density variables,whereas a negative relationship exists between likelihood of deforestation,elevation,slope,distance to the road,distance to the savanna,and forest management unit variables.During the 2017-2030 period,under the business-as-usual scenario,the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex will lose 1327.65 ha in forest area with an annual deforestation rate of 0.54%.Meanwhile,under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario,the overall forest loss was estimated to be 1237.11 ha with an annual deforestation rate of 0.50%.The predicted area of avoided deforestation in 2017-2030 under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario was 90.54 ha.Such data and information are important for the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex authority in prioritizing actions for combating deforestation and designing appropriate forest-related policies and supporting data for reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation programme or other incentive schemes in reducing deforestation.展开更多
Bandung, adopted a policy to build Waste to Energy （WTE） systems with a combustion capacity of 500 tons/day. WTE technologies will burn waste that is fed and utilized energy generated to be converted into electrical...Bandung, adopted a policy to build Waste to Energy （WTE） systems with a combustion capacity of 500 tons/day. WTE technologies will burn waste that is fed and utilized energy generated to be converted into electrical energy. This technology has the potential to reduce the volume of waste more effectively, but WTE also emit various harmful contaminants, including Polychlorinated Dibenzofurans （PCDF） and Polychlorinated Dibenzo-p-Dioxins （PCDDs）. WTE equipped with air pollution control, so that the emission of harmful contaminants can be controlled and detected continuously. This study only discusses contaminants PCDF and PCDDs, and the effect of air pollution control work against public health risks. In this study, the efficiency of air pollution control is assumed at 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% and 99%, while the public health risk assessment carried out for the projected 15 years into the future. Public health risk assessment carried out by the calculation of the health risk of carcinogenic （liver cancer）. A causal relationship between the independent variable efficiency of air pollution control with one dependent variable number of liver cancer patients, obtained the simple linear regression equation Y = 76.4592 - 0.7692X.展开更多
基金funded by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry Republic of Indonesia through the research funding assistance program
文摘The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,one of the remaining mountainous tropical forest areas in Timor Island,eastern Indonesia that covers an area of 31,984 ha,tends to decrease gradually.Efforts to secure mountain forest functions and counteract the negative impact of declining forest areas are often constrained by data uncertainty on factors contributing to deforestation.For this reason,this study attempts to develop models of deforestation and predict future deforestation in the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex.We constructed models of deforestation that describe the relationship between deforestation and factors contributing to deforestation using spatial statistical models.In this model,we used the deforestation data for the 1987-2017 period obtained from a previous study as dependent variables and the potential causes of deforestation generated from Geographic Information System spatial analysis as independent variables.Using the probability of deforestation derived from the model,we predicted future deforestation under two different scenarios,namely,business-as-usual(as the reference scenario)and reducing emission fromdeforestation and forest degradation.Our findings showed that a positive relationship exists between probability of deforestation,distance to the settlement,and population density variables,whereas a negative relationship exists between likelihood of deforestation,elevation,slope,distance to the road,distance to the savanna,and forest management unit variables.During the 2017-2030 period,under the business-as-usual scenario,the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex will lose 1327.65 ha in forest area with an annual deforestation rate of 0.54%.Meanwhile,under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario,the overall forest loss was estimated to be 1237.11 ha with an annual deforestation rate of 0.50%.The predicted area of avoided deforestation in 2017-2030 under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario was 90.54 ha.Such data and information are important for the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex authority in prioritizing actions for combating deforestation and designing appropriate forest-related policies and supporting data for reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation programme or other incentive schemes in reducing deforestation.
文摘Bandung, adopted a policy to build Waste to Energy （WTE） systems with a combustion capacity of 500 tons/day. WTE technologies will burn waste that is fed and utilized energy generated to be converted into electrical energy. This technology has the potential to reduce the volume of waste more effectively, but WTE also emit various harmful contaminants, including Polychlorinated Dibenzofurans （PCDF） and Polychlorinated Dibenzo-p-Dioxins （PCDDs）. WTE equipped with air pollution control, so that the emission of harmful contaminants can be controlled and detected continuously. This study only discusses contaminants PCDF and PCDDs, and the effect of air pollution control work against public health risks. In this study, the efficiency of air pollution control is assumed at 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% and 99%, while the public health risk assessment carried out for the projected 15 years into the future. Public health risk assessment carried out by the calculation of the health risk of carcinogenic （liver cancer）. A causal relationship between the independent variable efficiency of air pollution control with one dependent variable number of liver cancer patients, obtained the simple linear regression equation Y = 76.4592 - 0.7692X.
