This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal...This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal factors and their performance changes in hazardous chemical operational accidents, along with determining the functional failure link relationships. Subsequently, FERM was employed to elucidate both qualitative and quantitative operational accident information within a unified framework, which could be regarded as the input of information fusion to obtain the fuzzy belief distribution of each cause factor. Finally, the derived risk values of the causal factors were ranked while constructing multi-level accident causation chains to unveil the weak links in system functionality and the primary roots of operational accidents. Using the specific case of the “1·15” major explosion and fire accident at Liaoning Panjin Haoye Chemical Co., Ltd., seven causal factors and their corresponding performance changes were identified. Additionally, five accident causation chains were uncovered based on the fuzzy joint distribution of the functional assessment level(FAL) and reliability distribution(RD),revealing an overall increase in risk along the accident evolution path. The research findings demonstrated that FERM enabled the effective characterization, rational quantification and accurate analysis of the inherent uncertainties in hazardous chemical operational accident risks from a systemic perspective.展开更多
Refined risk prediction must be achieved to guarantee the safe and steady operation of chemical production processes.However,there is high nonlinearity and association coupling among massive,complicated multisource pr...Refined risk prediction must be achieved to guarantee the safe and steady operation of chemical production processes.However,there is high nonlinearity and association coupling among massive,complicated multisource process data,resulting in a low accuracy of existing prediction technology.For that reason,a real-time risk prediction method for chemical processes based on the attention-based bidirectional long short-term memory(Attention-based Bi-LSTM)is proposed in this study.First,multisource process data,such as temperature,pressure,flow rate,and liquid level,are preprocessed for denoising.Data correlation is analyzed in time windows by setting time windows and moving step lengths to explore correlations,thus establishing a complex network model oriented to the chemical production process.Second,network structure entropy is introduced to reduce the dimensions of the multisource process data.Moreover,a 1D relative risk sequence is acquired by maxemin deviation standardization to judge whether the chemical process is in a steady state.Finally,an Attention-based Bi-LSTM algorithm is established by integrating the attention mechanism and the Bi-LSTM network to fit and train 1D relative risk sequences.In that way,the proposed algorithm achieves real-time prediction and intelligent perception of risk states during chemical production.A case study based on the Tennessee Eastman process(TEP)is conducted.The validity and reasonability of the proposed method are verified by analyzing distribution laws of relative risks under normal and fault conditions.Also,the proposed algorithm importantly improves the prediction accuracy of chemical process risks relative to that of existing prediction technologies.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(2021YFB3301100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52004014)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(ZY2406).
文摘This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal factors and their performance changes in hazardous chemical operational accidents, along with determining the functional failure link relationships. Subsequently, FERM was employed to elucidate both qualitative and quantitative operational accident information within a unified framework, which could be regarded as the input of information fusion to obtain the fuzzy belief distribution of each cause factor. Finally, the derived risk values of the causal factors were ranked while constructing multi-level accident causation chains to unveil the weak links in system functionality and the primary roots of operational accidents. Using the specific case of the “1·15” major explosion and fire accident at Liaoning Panjin Haoye Chemical Co., Ltd., seven causal factors and their corresponding performance changes were identified. Additionally, five accident causation chains were uncovered based on the fuzzy joint distribution of the functional assessment level(FAL) and reliability distribution(RD),revealing an overall increase in risk along the accident evolution path. The research findings demonstrated that FERM enabled the effective characterization, rational quantification and accurate analysis of the inherent uncertainties in hazardous chemical operational accident risks from a systemic perspective.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52004014)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(ZY2406)the National Key Research&Development Program of China(2021YFB3301100).
文摘Refined risk prediction must be achieved to guarantee the safe and steady operation of chemical production processes.However,there is high nonlinearity and association coupling among massive,complicated multisource process data,resulting in a low accuracy of existing prediction technology.For that reason,a real-time risk prediction method for chemical processes based on the attention-based bidirectional long short-term memory(Attention-based Bi-LSTM)is proposed in this study.First,multisource process data,such as temperature,pressure,flow rate,and liquid level,are preprocessed for denoising.Data correlation is analyzed in time windows by setting time windows and moving step lengths to explore correlations,thus establishing a complex network model oriented to the chemical production process.Second,network structure entropy is introduced to reduce the dimensions of the multisource process data.Moreover,a 1D relative risk sequence is acquired by maxemin deviation standardization to judge whether the chemical process is in a steady state.Finally,an Attention-based Bi-LSTM algorithm is established by integrating the attention mechanism and the Bi-LSTM network to fit and train 1D relative risk sequences.In that way,the proposed algorithm achieves real-time prediction and intelligent perception of risk states during chemical production.A case study based on the Tennessee Eastman process(TEP)is conducted.The validity and reasonability of the proposed method are verified by analyzing distribution laws of relative risks under normal and fault conditions.Also,the proposed algorithm importantly improves the prediction accuracy of chemical process risks relative to that of existing prediction technologies.
