The contemporary carbon balance over the Tibetan Plateau is highly uncertain with a ten-fold difference between various estimates.In a warming world,the potential exists for a large carbon release from its permafrost ...The contemporary carbon balance over the Tibetan Plateau is highly uncertain with a ten-fold difference between various estimates.In a warming world,the potential exists for a large carbon release from its permafrost which could compromise China’s 2060 carbon-neutral goal.Here,we used a satellite-and inventory-based approach,ecosystem models,and atmospheric inversions to estimate that the carbon sink was 33.12–37.84 TgC yr^(–1)during 2000–2015.The carbon sink induced by climate change and increasing CO_(2)levels largely overcompensated for a livestock grazing-induced carbon source of 0.38TgC yr^(-1).By 2060,the carbon sink is projected to increase by 38.3–74.5%under moderate to high emissions scenarios,with the enhanced vegetation carbon uptake outweighing the warming-induced permafrost carbon release.The restoration of degraded grassland could sequestrate an additional 9.06 TgC yr^(-1),leading to a total carbon sink of 57.78–70.52 TgC yr^(-1).We conclude that the Tibetan Plateau’s ecosystems absorbed two-and-a-half times the amount of its cumulative fossil CO_(2)emissions during 2000–2015 and that their carbon sinks will almost double in strength in the future,helping to achieve China’s pledge to become carbon neutral by 2060.展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Programme(Grant Nos.2019QZKK0606,2022QZKK0101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41901136,41922004,41871104)the Science and Technology Major Project of Tibetan Autonomous Region of China(Grant No.XZ202201ZD0005G01)。
文摘The contemporary carbon balance over the Tibetan Plateau is highly uncertain with a ten-fold difference between various estimates.In a warming world,the potential exists for a large carbon release from its permafrost which could compromise China’s 2060 carbon-neutral goal.Here,we used a satellite-and inventory-based approach,ecosystem models,and atmospheric inversions to estimate that the carbon sink was 33.12–37.84 TgC yr^(–1)during 2000–2015.The carbon sink induced by climate change and increasing CO_(2)levels largely overcompensated for a livestock grazing-induced carbon source of 0.38TgC yr^(-1).By 2060,the carbon sink is projected to increase by 38.3–74.5%under moderate to high emissions scenarios,with the enhanced vegetation carbon uptake outweighing the warming-induced permafrost carbon release.The restoration of degraded grassland could sequestrate an additional 9.06 TgC yr^(-1),leading to a total carbon sink of 57.78–70.52 TgC yr^(-1).We conclude that the Tibetan Plateau’s ecosystems absorbed two-and-a-half times the amount of its cumulative fossil CO_(2)emissions during 2000–2015 and that their carbon sinks will almost double in strength in the future,helping to achieve China’s pledge to become carbon neutral by 2060.
