Background:HepatitisCvirus(HCV)is a bloodborne virus that causes both acute and chronic hepatitis with the severity from a mild illness to liver airrhosis and cancer.As one of the major infectious diseases in China,th...Background:HepatitisCvirus(HCV)is a bloodborne virus that causes both acute and chronic hepatitis with the severity from a mild illness to liver airrhosis and cancer.As one of the major infectious diseases in China,the monthly surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention shows the increasing tendency from 2004 to 2011,the stable tendency from 2012 to 2016,and the dedining tendency from 2017 to 2022.The 2004-2022HCV infectiontendency of Fujian Province is affected by nation-wide main control measures of Chinese government,because no control measures for HCV are modified from 2020 to 2022 during the prevalence of COVID-19 in Fujian Province.Methods:The SEACTR(the susceptible,the exposed,the acutely infected,the chronically infected,the treated,the recovered)models with protection awareness are proposed.The next generation matrix method is used to compute basic reproduction number of toy model and dynamic analysis method is used to produce stochastic reproduction number of modified model.The least squares method and toy model are used to perform the optimal fitting against the monthly surveillance data.The positive preserving truncated Euler-Maruyama method is applied in modified model for the positivity of numerical simulations.Results:The optimal fitting is performed using the monthly surveillancedata provided by the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2004 to 2022.The sensitivities of protection efficiency and conversion rate to basic reproduction number and stochastic reproduction number are analyzed.The reproduction numbers and HCV infec-tion scale with measures(single-measure,double-measure,triple-measure,and none-measure)are compared using toy model and modified model.The impacts of protection efficiency and conversion rate on exposed population,acutely infected population,chronically infectedpopulation,and treated population are analyzed.The tendency predictions for infected population and treated population in Fujian Province from 2023 to 2035 are conducted Conclusions:The HCV infection scale mainly depends on both protection efficiency and conversion rate,in which protection efficiency is the most important contributor.The reproduction numbers show the declining tendendes by phases,which indicate that the prevention and control of HCV in Fujian Province has achieved a remarkable achievement.The 2023-2035tendency predictions of HCV infection scale in Fujian Province grow slowly due to approximately 19-109 monthly infections.The overal HCV growth tendency of Fujian Province is consistent with the nation-wide elimination objective.展开更多
The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).Al...The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).All reported cases in the Putian epidemic(September 8–October 2,2021,Delta variant B.1.617.2)and Fuzhou epidemic(October 22–November 18,2022,Omicron variant BA.5.2)were classified by sex,age group,occupation,and location in this study.Using surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,we established a virus-oriented SVEIR(Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered)model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of NPIs.The optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario investigations.The scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19,and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta variant.Moreover,the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron,such as the basic reproduction number,infection rate,percentage of high-risk cases,and the growth rate.Decreasing tendencies were also identified,such as the average recovery period,the awareness delay,and the percentage of symptomatic cases.This study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two epidemics.Such interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.展开更多
The main epidemiological features such as basic reproduction number,effective reproduction number and sensitivity analysis were extensively discussed for multi-age groups SEIHR model in this study.Firstly,by using of ...The main epidemiological features such as basic reproduction number,effective reproduction number and sensitivity analysis were extensively discussed for multi-age groups SEIHR model in this study.Firstly,by using of the next generation matrix method,basic reproduction number R0 of the total population was estimated as 1.57 using parameter values of four age groups of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave.Given age group k,the values of R_(0k)(age group k to age group k),the values of R_(o)^(k)(an infected of age group k to the total population)and the values of R_(o)^(k)>R_(0k)>R_(o)^(k)(an infected of the total population to age group k)were also estimated,in which the explorations of the impacts of age groups revealed that the relationship was valid.Then,the fluctuating tendencies of effective reproduction number Rt were demonstrated by using two approaches(the surveillance data and the SEIHR model)for Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave,during which high-risk group(G4 group)mainly contributed the infection scale due to high susceptibility to infection and high risks to basic diseases.Further,the sensitivity analysis using two approaches(the sensitivity index and the PRCC values)revealed that susceptibility to infection of age groups played the vital roles,while the numerical simulation showed that infection scale varied with the changes of social contacts of age groups.The results of this study claimed that the high-risk group out of the total population was concerned by the local government with the highest susceptibility to infection against COVID-19.Conclusions This study verified that the partition structure of age groups of the total population,the susceptibility to infection of age groups,the social contacts among age groups were the important contributors of infection scale.The less social contacts and adequate hospital beds for high-risk group were profitable to control the spread of COVID-19.To avoid the emergence of medical runs against new variant in the future,the policymakers from local government were suggested to decline social contacts when hospital beds were limited.展开更多
The estimation methods of reproduction numbers and serial intervals are important in the early stages of infectious diseases.During the COVID pandemic,China implemented a dynamic zero-COVID policy on the Chinese mainl...The estimation methods of reproduction numbers and serial intervals are important in the early stages of infectious diseases.During the COVID pandemic,China implemented a dynamic zero-COVID policy on the Chinese mainland until the end of 2022.This study compares three estimation methods of basic repro-duction numbers on small-scale,short-duration COVID-19 epidemics in Fujian Province.Basic reproduc-tion numbers were investigated using a varying-strain model via a next-generation matrix method.Serial intervals were derived using the infector-infectee pairs of two epidemics from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Basic reproduction numbers were estimated using the maxi-mum likelihood estimation method and the exponential growth method.The curves of the effective reproduction numbers of the three epidemics were plotted by utilizing daily cases and the EpiEstim R package.The spatial heterogeneity of infection cases was described using the Gini coefficient.This study provides significant insights on the estimation methods of reproduction numbers for policymakers in the local government.The results reveal that social contacts between infectors and susceptible individuals should be reduced to avoid an increase in deaths and to fight against the spread of infectious diseases.展开更多
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China(2021J01621)supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(12231012)+3 种基金supported by Royal Society of Edinburgh(RSE1832)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council(EP/W522521/1)supported by The Major Health Research Project of Fujian Province(2021ZD01001)Fujian Research and Training Grants for Young and Middle-aged Leaders in Healthcare(202501140018).
文摘Background:HepatitisCvirus(HCV)is a bloodborne virus that causes both acute and chronic hepatitis with the severity from a mild illness to liver airrhosis and cancer.As one of the major infectious diseases in China,the monthly surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention shows the increasing tendency from 2004 to 2011,the stable tendency from 2012 to 2016,and the dedining tendency from 2017 to 2022.The 2004-2022HCV infectiontendency of Fujian Province is affected by nation-wide main control measures of Chinese government,because no control measures for HCV are modified from 2020 to 2022 during the prevalence of COVID-19 in Fujian Province.Methods:The SEACTR(the susceptible,the exposed,the acutely infected,the chronically infected,the treated,the recovered)models with protection awareness are proposed.The next generation matrix method is used to compute basic reproduction number of toy model and dynamic analysis method is used to produce stochastic reproduction number of modified model.The least squares method and toy model are used to perform the optimal fitting against the monthly surveillance data.The positive preserving truncated Euler-Maruyama method is applied in modified model for the positivity of numerical simulations.Results:The optimal fitting is performed using the monthly surveillancedata provided by the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2004 to 2022.The sensitivities of protection efficiency and conversion rate to basic reproduction number and stochastic reproduction number are analyzed.The reproduction numbers and HCV infec-tion scale with measures(single-measure,double-measure,triple-measure,and none-measure)are compared using toy model and modified model.The impacts of protection efficiency and conversion rate on exposed population,acutely infected population,chronically infectedpopulation,and treated population are analyzed.The tendency predictions for infected population and treated population in Fujian Province from 2023 to 2035 are conducted Conclusions:The HCV infection scale mainly depends on both protection efficiency and conversion rate,in which protection efficiency is the most important contributor.The reproduction numbers show the declining tendendes by phases,which indicate that the prevention and control of HCV in Fujian Province has achieved a remarkable achievement.The 2023-2035tendency predictions of HCV infection scale in Fujian Province grow slowly due to approximately 19-109 monthly infections.The overal HCV growth tendency of Fujian Province is consistent with the nation-wide elimination objective.
基金supported by Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering(2022-JB-06)supported by Special Projects of the Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development(2021L3018)+2 种基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian ProvinceProvince of China(2021J01621)supported by Fujian Science and Technology Innovation Platform Construction Project(2019Y2001)Health Science and Technology Project of Fujian Province(2020GGB019).
文摘The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).All reported cases in the Putian epidemic(September 8–October 2,2021,Delta variant B.1.617.2)and Fuzhou epidemic(October 22–November 18,2022,Omicron variant BA.5.2)were classified by sex,age group,occupation,and location in this study.Using surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,we established a virus-oriented SVEIR(Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered)model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of NPIs.The optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario investigations.The scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19,and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta variant.Moreover,the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron,such as the basic reproduction number,infection rate,percentage of high-risk cases,and the growth rate.Decreasing tendencies were also identified,such as the average recovery period,the awareness delay,and the percentage of symptomatic cases.This study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two epidemics.Such interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.
基金This study received the supports from Special Projects of the Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development(2021L3018)Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China(2021J01621)+3 种基金Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering(2022-JB-06)National Natural Science Foundation of China(12231012)Royal Society of Edinburgh(RSE1832)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council(EP/W522521/1).
文摘The main epidemiological features such as basic reproduction number,effective reproduction number and sensitivity analysis were extensively discussed for multi-age groups SEIHR model in this study.Firstly,by using of the next generation matrix method,basic reproduction number R0 of the total population was estimated as 1.57 using parameter values of four age groups of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave.Given age group k,the values of R_(0k)(age group k to age group k),the values of R_(o)^(k)(an infected of age group k to the total population)and the values of R_(o)^(k)>R_(0k)>R_(o)^(k)(an infected of the total population to age group k)were also estimated,in which the explorations of the impacts of age groups revealed that the relationship was valid.Then,the fluctuating tendencies of effective reproduction number Rt were demonstrated by using two approaches(the surveillance data and the SEIHR model)for Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave,during which high-risk group(G4 group)mainly contributed the infection scale due to high susceptibility to infection and high risks to basic diseases.Further,the sensitivity analysis using two approaches(the sensitivity index and the PRCC values)revealed that susceptibility to infection of age groups played the vital roles,while the numerical simulation showed that infection scale varied with the changes of social contacts of age groups.The results of this study claimed that the high-risk group out of the total population was concerned by the local government with the highest susceptibility to infection against COVID-19.Conclusions This study verified that the partition structure of age groups of the total population,the susceptibility to infection of age groups,the social contacts among age groups were the important contributors of infection scale.The less social contacts and adequate hospital beds for high-risk group were profitable to control the spread of COVID-19.To avoid the emergence of medical runs against new variant in the future,the policymakers from local government were suggested to decline social contacts when hospital beds were limited.
基金supported by the Special Projects of the Central(2021L3018)the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province ported by the Major Health Research Project of Fujian Province KCZ and GMC were supported by the Fujian Science and Technol-the Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development of China(2021J01621)+2 种基金the Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering(2022-JB-06,2023-JB-12)JFX was sup-(2021ZD01001).We would like to thank Fujian Research and Training Grants for Young and Middle-aged Leaders in Healthcare.ogy Innovation Platform Construction Project(2019Y2001)Health Science and Technology Project of Fujian Province(2020GGB019).
文摘The estimation methods of reproduction numbers and serial intervals are important in the early stages of infectious diseases.During the COVID pandemic,China implemented a dynamic zero-COVID policy on the Chinese mainland until the end of 2022.This study compares three estimation methods of basic repro-duction numbers on small-scale,short-duration COVID-19 epidemics in Fujian Province.Basic reproduc-tion numbers were investigated using a varying-strain model via a next-generation matrix method.Serial intervals were derived using the infector-infectee pairs of two epidemics from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Basic reproduction numbers were estimated using the maxi-mum likelihood estimation method and the exponential growth method.The curves of the effective reproduction numbers of the three epidemics were plotted by utilizing daily cases and the EpiEstim R package.The spatial heterogeneity of infection cases was described using the Gini coefficient.This study provides significant insights on the estimation methods of reproduction numbers for policymakers in the local government.The results reveal that social contacts between infectors and susceptible individuals should be reduced to avoid an increase in deaths and to fight against the spread of infectious diseases.
