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信息干预与新业态从业人员养老保险的参保意愿:基于外卖骑手随机实验的实证研究 被引量:4
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作者 申梦晗 苏楚平 申广军 《公共行政评论》 北大核心 2025年第3期119-137,M0006,共20页
新业态从业人员是劳动者队伍的重要组成部分,现行的相关参保政策主要是以“自愿为主”的原则鼓励新业态从业人员参加养老保险,但是实际上,新业态从业人员并未积极参保。论文以外卖骑手为例,通过随机实验方法研究信息干预对新业态劳动者... 新业态从业人员是劳动者队伍的重要组成部分,现行的相关参保政策主要是以“自愿为主”的原则鼓励新业态从业人员参加养老保险,但是实际上,新业态从业人员并未积极参保。论文以外卖骑手为例,通过随机实验方法研究信息干预对新业态劳动者城乡居民养老保险参保意愿的影响。研究发现,关于养老保险的收益信息干预可以显著提升外卖骑手参加养老保险的意愿,并提高他们增加参保年限和缴费金额的意愿。其中,受教育程度较高、收入较高、心理年龄较大、计划长期做骑手、金融素养较高的群体在接受信息干预后,养老保险参保意愿的提升更显著。此外,信息干预也降低了骑手希望“生男孩”的偏好,有助于缓解我国性别比例失衡的情况。论文从行为经济学视角解释了新业态劳动者社会保险参保率低的原因,也为促进新业态劳动者参与社会保险提供了可操作的政策工具。 展开更多
关键词 信息干预 养老保险 参保意愿 新业态 随机实验
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调查失业率与奥肯定律再检验——兼谈自然失业率与青年失业问题 被引量:2
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作者 陈恺 申广军 谭韦珊 《经济学报》 2025年第1期19-37,共19页
以往研究发现奥肯定律在中国失效,其重要原因可能是失业率的统计质量。本文使用国家统计局近年来开始发布的城镇调查失业率数据重新验证奥肯定律在中国的有效性。研究表明,采用调查失业率后,奥肯定律在我国成立,且这一结论对不同的替代... 以往研究发现奥肯定律在中国失效,其重要原因可能是失业率的统计质量。本文使用国家统计局近年来开始发布的城镇调查失业率数据重新验证奥肯定律在中国的有效性。研究表明,采用调查失业率后,奥肯定律在我国成立,且这一结论对不同的替代指标和模型设定均稳健。以奥肯定律为理论基础,本文使用状态空间模型和Kalman滤波方法估计得到我国2017年1月至2023年5月的动态自然失业率。对青年劳动力群体的分析显示,2020年后青年调查失业率不断攀升的根源在于自然失业率居高不下。本文研究结论有助于理解我国劳动力市场的结构性特征,更好地实现“稳就业”的政策目标。 展开更多
关键词 调查失业率 奥肯定律 动态自然失业率 青年失业
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信息技术的增长效应:来自中国制造业企业的证据 被引量:2
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作者 陈宇羡 申广军 邹静娴 《经济学报》 2018年第1期112-130,共19页
现有研究对于信息技术如何促进经济增长尚无定论,本文利用企业层面数据来回答这一问题。研究发现,使用信息技术的企业增长速度更快,并且增长质量更高。我们使用不同的指标,使用新成立企业和匹配企业样本,使用工具变量方法缓解内生性问题... 现有研究对于信息技术如何促进经济增长尚无定论,本文利用企业层面数据来回答这一问题。研究发现,使用信息技术的企业增长速度更快,并且增长质量更高。我们使用不同的指标,使用新成立企业和匹配企业样本,使用工具变量方法缓解内生性问题,上述结果仍十分稳健,但在不同类型的企业间存在异质性。本文在理论上阐述了信息技术的增长效应,并进行实证检验,这对我国当前的新经济发展战略具有明确的政策含义。 展开更多
关键词 信息技术 企业增长 增长质量 新经济
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THE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATOR FOR AN ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESS DRIVEN BY A HERMITE PROCESS WITH A PERIODIC MEAN 被引量:1
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作者 guangjun shen Qian YU Zheng TANG 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第2期517-534,共18页
We consider the least square estimator for the parameters of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes dY_(s)=(∑_(j=1)^(k)μ_(j)φ_(j)(s)-βY_(s))ds+dZ_(s)^(q,H),driven by the Hermite process Z_(s)^(q,H)with order q≥1 and a Hurs... We consider the least square estimator for the parameters of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes dY_(s)=(∑_(j=1)^(k)μ_(j)φ_(j)(s)-βY_(s))ds+dZ_(s)^(q,H),driven by the Hermite process Z_(s)^(q,H)with order q≥1 and a Hurst index H∈(1/2,1),where the periodic functionsφ_(j)(s),,j=1,...,κare bounded,and the real numbersμ_(j),,j=1,...,κtogether withβ>0 are unknown parameters.We establish the consistency of a least squares estimation and obtain the asymptotic behavior for the estimator.We also introduce alternative estimators,which can be looked upon as an application of the least squares estimator.In terms of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with periodic mean,our work can be regarded as its non-Gaussian extension. 展开更多
关键词 Least squares estimator CONSISTENCY asymptotic distribution Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes Hermite processes
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AN AVERAGING PRINCIPLE FOR STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL DELAY EQUATIONS DRIVEN BY TIME-CHANGED LéVY NOISE 被引量:1
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作者 guangjun shen Wentao XU Jiang-Lun WU 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第2期540-550,共11页
In this paper,we aim to derive an averaging principle for stochastic differential equations driven by time-changed Lévy noise with variable delays.Under certain assumptions,we show that the solutions of stochasti... In this paper,we aim to derive an averaging principle for stochastic differential equations driven by time-changed Lévy noise with variable delays.Under certain assumptions,we show that the solutions of stochastic differential equations with time-changed Lévy noise can be approximated by solutions of the associated averaged stochastic differential equations in mean square convergence and in convergence in probability,respectively.The convergence order is also estimated in terms of noise intensity.Finally,an example with numerical simulation is given to illustrate the theoretical result. 展开更多
关键词 Averaging principle stochastic differential equation time-changed Levy noise variable delays
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Large and Moderate Deviation Principles for Path-Distribution Dependent SDEs Driven by Mixed Fractional Brownian Motion
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作者 guangjun shen Huan Zhou Jiang-Lun Wu 《Acta Mathematica Sinica,English Series》 2025年第12期2959-2989,共31页
In this paper,we study asymptotic behavior of small perturbation for path-distribution dependent stochastic differential equations driven simultaneously by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H∈(1/2,1)a... In this paper,we study asymptotic behavior of small perturbation for path-distribution dependent stochastic differential equations driven simultaneously by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H∈(1/2,1)and a standard Brownian motion.We establish large and moderate deviation principles by utilising the weak convergence approach. 展开更多
关键词 Fractional brownian motion large deviation principle moderate deviation principle weak convergence approach
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Stochastic Averaging Principle for Two-Time-Scale SDEs with Distribution-Dependent Coefficients Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion
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作者 guangjun shen Jiayuan Yin Jiang-Lun Wu 《Communications in Mathematics and Statistics》 2025年第6期1445-1479,共35页
In this paper,we derive an averaging principle for a fast–slow system of stochastic differential equations(SDEs)involving distribution-dependent coefficients driven by both fractional Brownian motion(fBm)and standard... In this paper,we derive an averaging principle for a fast–slow system of stochastic differential equations(SDEs)involving distribution-dependent coefficients driven by both fractional Brownian motion(fBm)and standard Brownian motion(Bm).We first establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the fast–slow system and the corresponding averaging equation.Then,we show that the slow component strongly converges to the solution of the associated averaged equation. 展开更多
关键词 Averaging principle Fast-slow systems Fractional Brownian motion Standard Brownian motion
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去杠杆的分配效应——来自中国工业部门的证据 被引量:21
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作者 董丰 申广军 焦阳 《经济学(季刊)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第2期451-472,共22页
高杠杆是我国经济当前面临的主要挑战。本文构建模型说明,企业策略性负债能提升企业在劳资谈判中的筹码,进而压低劳动收入份额。实证分析发现,企业负债显著地降低了劳动收入份额,而且企业负债和劳动收入份额的关系随企业所有制、劳动密... 高杠杆是我国经济当前面临的主要挑战。本文构建模型说明,企业策略性负债能提升企业在劳资谈判中的筹码,进而压低劳动收入份额。实证分析发现,企业负债显著地降低了劳动收入份额,而且企业负债和劳动收入份额的关系随企业所有制、劳动密集度、工会力量和债务类型而变动。本文研究有助于理解劳动收入份额下降的原因,并进一步阐明了高杠杆对收入分配的危害,为我国经济去杠杆和缩小收入差距的经济政策提供了理论支持。 展开更多
关键词 企业杠杆 收入分配 劳动收入份额
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Economic Development and Social Integration of Migrants in China 被引量:2
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作者 guangjun shen Chuanchuan Zhang 《China & World Economy》 2024年第1期1-20,共20页
Migrants often face challenges in social integration.Using a nationally representative sample of migrant workers and employing the epidemiological approach,this paper examines the determinants of social integration.It... Migrants often face challenges in social integration.Using a nationally representative sample of migrant workers and employing the epidemiological approach,this paper examines the determinants of social integration.It finds that,conditional on a set of individual features,the migrants from less-developed provinces have greater difficulty in integrating into local communities.These results still demonstrate robustness across alternative variables,samples,and various specifications.Mechanism analysis shows that educational and employment factors account for over 40 percent of the variance in social integration levels,suggesting their significant influence.Additionally,the analysis suggests that native bias against migrants,along with misunderstandings between them,may account for part of the remaining variation in social integration levels.Importantly,the ability to speak local dialects has been identified as a crucial factor that can significantly improve migrants'subjective experience of integrating into a new city.By identifying one specific cause of social integration,this paper provides information to individuals and governments and assists them to improve social integration. 展开更多
关键词 economic development epidemiologic approach MIGRANT social integration
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Least squares estimator of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by fractional Levy processes with periodic mean 被引量:1
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作者 guangjun shen Qian YU Yunineng LI 《Frontiers of Mathematics in China》 SCIE CSCD 2019年第6期1281-1302,共22页
VVc deal with the least squares estimator for the drift parameters of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with periodic mean function driven by fractional Levy process.For this estimator,we obtain consistency and the asympt... VVc deal with the least squares estimator for the drift parameters of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with periodic mean function driven by fractional Levy process.For this estimator,we obtain consistency and the asymptotic distribution.Compared with fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck driven by Levy process,they can be regarded both as a Levy generalization of fractional Brownian motion and a fractional generalization of Levy process. 展开更多
关键词 Least squares estimator Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes fractional Levy processes asymptotic distribution
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Limit theorems for functionals of Gaussian vectors
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作者 Hongshuai DAI guangjun shen Lingtao KONG 《Frontiers of Mathematics in China》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第4期821-842,共22页
Operator self-similar processes, as an extension of self-similar processes, have been studied extensively. In this work, we study limit theorems for functionals of Gaussian vectors. Under some conditions, we determine... Operator self-similar processes, as an extension of self-similar processes, have been studied extensively. In this work, we study limit theorems for functionals of Gaussian vectors. Under some conditions, we determine that the limit of partial sums of functionals of a stationary Gaussian sequence of random vectors is an operator self-similar process. 展开更多
关键词 Gaussian vector operator self-similar process operator fractional Brownian motion scaling limit
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Total Factor Productivity in China's Manufacturing Sector in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis
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作者 guangjun shen Jingxian Zou 《China & World Economy》 2023年第2期1-25,共25页
This paper improves the estimation of firm-level total factor productivity(TFP)by considering energy use and including small-and medium-sized enterprises using data from the Chinese National Tax Survey Database(2008-2... This paper improves the estimation of firm-level total factor productivity(TFP)by considering energy use and including small-and medium-sized enterprises using data from the Chinese National Tax Survey Database(2008-2011).It analyzes the production efficiency of Chinese manufacturing firms using the improved TFP data and finds that(i)the TFP data frequently used in previous studies overestimated firms'real production efficiency;(i)the TFP of manufacturing firms decreased from 2008 to 2011 due to declines in both technical efficiency and allocation efficiency,(ii)the lower capacity utilization of production factors led to lower technical efficiency;and(iv)allocation efficiency decreased more in provinces and industries with higher shares of state-owned enterprises.The findings have policy implications for enhancing growth potential in the long run. 展开更多
关键词 allocative efficiency energy use small and medium-sized enterprises technical efficiency total factor productivity
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Asymptotic behavior for bi-fractional regression models via Malliavin calculus
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作者 guangjun shen Litan YAN 《Frontiers of Mathematics in China》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第1期151-179,共29页
Let B^H1,K1 and BH2,K2 be two independent bi-fractional Brownian motions. In this paper, as a natural extension to the fractional regression model, we consider the asymptotic behavior of the sequence Sn:=∑i=0^n-1K... Let B^H1,K1 and BH2,K2 be two independent bi-fractional Brownian motions. In this paper, as a natural extension to the fractional regression model, we consider the asymptotic behavior of the sequence Sn:=∑i=0^n-1K(n^αBi^H,K1)(Bi+1^H2,K2-Bi^H2,K2)where K is a standard Gaussian kernel function and the bandwidth parameter α satisfies certain hypotheses. We show that its limiting distribution is a mixed normal law involving the local time of the bi-fractional Brownian motion B^H1,K1. We also give the stable convergence of the sequence Sn by using the techniques of the Malliavin calculus. 展开更多
关键词 Bi-fractional Brownian motion (bi-fBm) Malliavin calculus regression model
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