Community vulnerability to climate change can be conceptualized as an aggregate of three vulnerability components: exposure to climatic stress, sensitivity to climate stress and adaptive capacity. However, even within...Community vulnerability to climate change can be conceptualized as an aggregate of three vulnerability components: exposure to climatic stress, sensitivity to climate stress and adaptive capacity. However, even within similar regions these vulnerability components are spatially differentiated necessitating the understanding of a regions vulnerability pattern before targeting adaptation assistance. This research sought to understand the differentiated vulnerability patterns of communities in Kitui County as well as the existing coping strategies to guide implementation of adaptation assistance. Indicator approach to vulnerability assessment and focus group discussions were used to understand the vulnerability pattern and coping strategies respectively. Results showed a differentiated vulnerability pattern with a west to east gradient across Kitui County. The pattern exhibited less vulnerability scores on the western and central parts and more vulnerability scores on the eastern and northern parts of the County. Existing coping strategies have become inadequate with increasing climate variability, severity and frequency of extreme climate events, which render the communities even more vulnerable. The patterns of vulnerability can guide appropriate targeting of adaptation assistance and in turn lead to improved climate change resilience and community livelihoods.展开更多
River basins in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa have traditionally been utilized for pastoral livelihoods under communal land tenure. Communities in West Pokot in Kenya have continued to experience increased precip...River basins in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa have traditionally been utilized for pastoral livelihoods under communal land tenure. Communities in West Pokot in Kenya have continued to experience increased precipitation and temperature as a result of climate variability and change. This study aimed at assessing the impact of climate variability and change at micro-basin level in order to address research and policy gaps on climate change and food security as policy arena shifts from centralized to decentralized governance in Kenya. Primary quantitative data was collected from 387 households’ perceptions of climate variability and change and its implications on food security were measured. Food security index score was calculated. The annual rainfall trend over Suam river basin for the period (1981-2020), was characterized by a linearly increasing annual rainfall trend. Mann Kendall test Z-statistics and Tau were at 2.3578 and 0.0720 respectively. The basin experienced the highest rainfall variability during the first decade (1981-1990) with the highest coefficient of rainfall variation noted at 11.5%. The highest temperature was recorded in the third decade (2001-2010) and fourth decade (2011-2020) at 27.0 and 28.2 degrees Celsius respectively. However, the overall index score for food security was 55.78 with food availability scoring the highest index, mean (SD) of 63.41 (36.52). This was attributed to households’ practice of both nomadic pastoralism and agro-pastoralism activities. Climate variability and change, have resulted in increased amount of rainfall received providing for opportunity investment in rain water harvesting to support both pastoralism and agro-pastoralism production to enhance food security.展开更多
Charcoal is the main cooking source of energy used by millions of households in Somalia and has been described as “black gold” because of the revenue it produces. The objective of this study was to understand the ex...Charcoal is the main cooking source of energy used by millions of households in Somalia and has been described as “black gold” because of the revenue it produces. The objective of this study was to understand the extent of land cover change, given the widely reported charcoal trade in the South of Somalia. Land cover change analysis was done using remotely data from Landsat imagery. Different images covering all districts in Lower Jubba from 1993/95, 2000 and 2014 were analysed and compared. A survey was conducted in Lower Jubba to determine the divers of deforestation and degradation in the region. Results showed a 50% reduction in forest cover and a 17% reduction in woodlands between 1993/95 and 2014. Results from the survey showed charcoal production as a maladaptive response to climate extremes. If business continues as usual with deforestation, the entire area could completely be deforested in the future. Results from this study can be useful in the development of strategies for reforestation, environmental management and sustainable development for this region.展开更多
Somalia has faced severe challenges linked to climate variability, which has been exacerbated by conflict and limited governance that persisted for decades. Today climate extremes such as floods, drought, and coastal ...Somalia has faced severe challenges linked to climate variability, which has been exacerbated by conflict and limited governance that persisted for decades. Today climate extremes such as floods, drought, and coastal marine severe systems among others are always associated with the destruction of property and livelihoods;losses of lives lost, migrations, and resource based conflicts among many other miseries. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that climate change is real and requires sound knowledge of local future climate change scenarios. The study attempted to provide projected rainfall and temperature change scenarios over Lower Jubba, Somalia. This was done using the downscaled Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) RCMs data. The simulated temperature and rainfall data derived from the CORDEX RCMs ensemble were compared with the observed data. The study focused on the IPCC projected periods of 2030, 2050 and 2070 benchmarks. Analysis of the projected rainfall indicated a decreasing trend in rainfall leading up to 2030 followed by an increase in rainfall with the 2050 and 2070 scenarios. In the case of temperature, the projections from all the models showed increase in minimum and maximum temperatures in all seasons and sub periods, like being observed by temperature projection over other parts of the world. The 2030, 2050 and 2070 projected rainfall and temperature change scenarios show that Somalia future development and livelihoods will in future face increased threats of climate extremes unless effective climate smart adaptation systems form integral components of national development strategies.展开更多
Due to global land surface warming, severe temperature events are expected to occur more frequently and more extremely causing changes in biodiversity and altering movement and survival of large herbivores. There are ...Due to global land surface warming, severe temperature events are expected to occur more frequently and more extremely causing changes in biodiversity and altering movement and survival of large herbivores. There are increasing observations of escalating wildlife range losses worldwide. In this study, we investigated 15 large wild herbivores (4 migratory, 1 dispersing and 10 residents) and their potential range changes in relation to projected temperatures changes based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Previous studies of Kenyan savannah have shown that increases in temperature can reduce the densities of wildlife significantly and after certain thresholds the species can be lost in those landscapes. The range maps of the 15 species were developed from aerial censuses that have been conducted in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. We analysed temperature changes for the three RCPs for the periods 2030s, 2050s and 2070s. And based on the temperature threshold for each of the 15 species we analysed which wildlife range areas will be lost. Our results project that for the RCP 2.6, 3 out of the 15 species are projected to lose more than 50% of their range by the year 2030s, and 5 out 15 by 2050s and 4 of 15 by 2070s. The second climate scenario of RCP 4.5 projects that by 2030s, 3 species will lose more than 50% of their range, and in 2050s and 2070s 5 species. The RCP 8.5 which is the extreme scenario of temperature changes projects 5 species to lose their range by 50% in 2030s, 7 species by 2050s and 10 species by 2070s. The extent of range loss was different among species but was severe for buffalo, Thomson’s gazelle, waterbuck, and wildebeest which are also water dependent species. However, the elephant, gerenuk, hartebeest, lesser kudu, and oryx are expected to retain most of their range in all the RCPs scenarios. These range contractions raise serious concerns about the future of wildlife in Kenyan savannah based on projected climate changes. And therefore, it is imperative the wildlife sector develops climate policies and plans that take into account the projected climate scenarios.展开更多
Within savanna environments, movements of elephant are influenced by changes in climate especially seasonal rainfall. In this study, we investigated the possible changes in elephant population based on projected rainf...Within savanna environments, movements of elephant are influenced by changes in climate especially seasonal rainfall. In this study, we investigated the possible changes in elephant population based on projected rainfall changes using regional climate models (RCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The relationship between elephant and rainfall was modelled against annual, wet season, dry season rainfall based on various time lags. Future relation between elephant and rainfall was projected based on three RCPs;2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. There was a strong linear relationship between elephant and October-November-December (OND) rains with time lag of 13 years (Y = −4016.43 + 19.11x, r2 = 0.459, P = 0.006). The rainfall trends for RCP 2.6 and 4.5 showed a slight increase in annual rainfall for the period 2006-2100 but driven by OND increases. Rainfall increase for RCP 8.5 was significant and was driven by increase in both March-April-May (MAM) and OND. These rainfall dynamics had influence on the projected elephant population in the Amboseli ecosystem. For RCP 2.6 and 4.5 the elephant population increase was 2455 and 2814 respectively. RCP 8.5 elephant population doubled to an average of 3348 elephants. In all the RCPs there are seasonal and yearly variations and absolute number varies from the average. The range of variation is small in RCPs 2.6 and 4.5 compared to RCP 8.5. Evidently, elephant population will increase based on projected rainfall projections surpassing park capacity. It therefore, requires that the Park authority put in place measures that could contain these numbers including opening of blocked wildlife corridors, maintain the cross border movement of Amboseli elephant with Tanzania in that case ensure there is no poaching. Lastly, work with local communities so that they can benefit from tourism through setting up conservancies through which they could minimize the human elephant conflicts based on the projected elephant population.展开更多
Especially for smallholder farmers with limited land and financial resources,farming in arid and semi-arid lands(ASALs),where season-to-season rainfall fluctuation dictates production,is a risky business.Through parti...Especially for smallholder farmers with limited land and financial resources,farming in arid and semi-arid lands(ASALs),where season-to-season rainfall fluctuation dictates production,is a risky business.Through participatory approaches,this study compares deterministic and probabilistic interpretations of climate forecasts and their use by smallholder farmers through a crop-growing season.The study revealed that deterministic advisories are good for smallholder farmers only when formulated from forecasts with higher accuracy than the historical climatological distribution.Otherwise,they cause farm loss in terms of labor and inputs.On the other hand,probabilistic advisories help farmers spread the risk to cater to all the uncertainty and in so doing bring out a balance between confidence and caution.However,farmers must be supported with enough sensitization to comprehend forecast probability,translate it into probabilistic advisories and use that to plan and manage farm activities.The findings support the hypothesis providing packaged climate products in transparent probabilistic terms in place of deterministic form can overcome inherent credibility challenges.The study’s conclusion highlights important takeaways and new understandings of the advantage of using probabilistic advisories among resource-poor smallholder farmers.展开更多
The Paris Agreement’s differentiation architecture is a key feature of the international climate regime,enabling countries to submit climate action plans based on their unique national circumstances.The study is desi...The Paris Agreement’s differentiation architecture is a key feature of the international climate regime,enabling countries to submit climate action plans based on their unique national circumstances.The study is designed to investigate the impact of the Paris Agreement differentiation architecture on LDCs from Africa engagement in the UNFCCC process.The study adopted an exploratory research design and adopted a census approach to get a sample size of 66 negotiators from 33 LDCs in the Africa Group of Negotiators(AGN)for questionnaire administration.This paper presents part of the results of the research focused on how the Paris Agreement differentiation architecture inad vertently prevails over the unity of the developing countries and consequently drives collective ambition.The study notes the divide and rule elements of the Paris Agreement through strategic coordination challenges between AGN and LDCs from Africa;the LDCs from Africa’s divergent interests from AGN and G77 and China;and the LDCs’appropriation of new friends and partnerships.Consequently,LDCs from Africa are covertly and unassumingly redefining the concept of climate justice by transcending the traditional divide between developed and developing countries that characterized the preParis climate regime in calling for accountability for climate action.The study reveals that the Paris Agreement differentiation system contributes to the weakening of the unity of developing nations in their negotiations in the UNFCCC process,as revealed by how LDCs from Africa participate in the climate negotiations un der the current climate regime.The study further found that LDCs from Africa’s positions and tactics differ from those of other developing countries by opting to use nonstate actors and sometimes collaborating with developed countries.LDCs from Africa have tactfully been indifferent to Africa Group of Negotiators(AGN)interests such as the African Special Circumstances Agenda.While most developing countries have opposed the agenda,the position taken by LDCs from Africa is interesting because these parties come from AGN,which originated and owns this position.The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States(CELAC)growing role in climate discussions,with aspirations to become a formal negotiating group,adds to the diplomatic complexity of the developing countries,which is mainly attributable to the Paris Agreement differentiation framework.The Paris Agreement has resulted in fractured solidarity among developing nations,with developing country groups split into subtle selfinterested entities that only use formal coalitions when it suits them.However,the unintended impact of the fissure is that LDCs from Africa and the rest of the LDCs are constantly pushing both developed and emerging economies for enhanced ambition,which is the primary purpose of the Paris Agreement.The deepened association with developed countries and nonstate actors,especially civil society organizations,is helping LDCs from Africa to push for ambition through lobbying advocacy and enhancing their capacity in negotiations through the inclusion of nonstate actors.Further,this development has enabled LDCs from Africa and others to reshape and redefine the concept of climate justice by advocating for a combined consideration of both historical responsibility and the current actions which ultimately brings emerging developing countries into the fold of accountability The study draws recommendations for LDCs from Africa to ensure unity of developing countries to keep negotiating as one for climate ambition while maintaining flexibility for individual parties to pursue their interests in alignment with the new climate regime.展开更多
Equity and fairness are fundamental principles in climate negotiations under the UNFCCC,essential for incentivizing active and effective participation of all parties involved.Historically,the principle of Common But D...Equity and fairness are fundamental principles in climate negotiations under the UNFCCC,essential for incentivizing active and effective participation of all parties involved.Historically,the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities(CBDR-RC)has been used to define the fairness and equitability of the international climate process which placed considerable accountability on developed nations on account of their historical responsibility for climate change and their capacity to address the problem.However,the Paris Agreement marked a shift toward a more inclusive global approach,requiring all countries to submit climate action plans tailored to their unique circumstances.Under the Paris Agreement,developing countries which were historically inculpable are also required to take comparable climate action alongside developed countries albeit in accordance with their socio-economic uniqueness.The study examined how Least Developed Countries(LDCs),from Africa,a sub-set of the developing countries within the African Group of Negotiators(AGN)perceive fairness and equity within the Paris Agreement framework.Using exploratory research,focused informant interviews and questionnaire to LDCs negotiators from Africa found that these countries acknowledge the retention of preferential provisions—such as flexible reporting requirements and targeted financial support—in the Paris Agreement as an important element in their consideration of fairness and equitability of the regime given their socio-economic status,vulnerability,and susceptibility to negative impacts to climate change have not improved since 1997.On the other hand,the study found that LDCs from Africa continue to face an avalanche of structural and systematic challenges in international climate negotiations which include inadequate representation,limited access to scientific information,and power imbalances with developed and emerging developing countries which necessitated the retention of the flexibilities and preferential conditions in the current climate regime.About 75% of the LDCs from Africa negotiators think that the retention of flexibilities enables them to participate in climate action in accordance with their abilities while allowing space to participate in their sustainable development and socio-economic pursuits without any restraining obligations.Despite these challenges,African LDCs from Africa,have developed ambitious NDCs,with 80% adopting economywide and long-term low-carbon strategies.Their commitment to implementation of the critical parts of the Paris Agreement relies heavily on targeted and preferential provision of international cooperation,reflecting both their trust in the UNFCCC and the crucial role that perceptions of fairness and equity play in sustaining this trust.To address the structure and system challenges,African LDCs have adopted innovative negotiation strategies to enhance their influence and achieve significant breakthroughs in climate diplomacy.African LDCs hold mixed views on the Paris Agreement’s approach to differentiation.While they acknowledge the Paris Agreement’s efforts to mobilize climate ambition through NDCs and provide flexibilities and preferential support for implementation,many strongly believe it falls short in delivering true fairness and equity.The research identified the Paris Agreement’s Achilles heel as its inability to effectively and practically incentivize climate ambition among parties as anticipated by the objectives of the treaty.Sixty-five percent(65%)of respondents attribute this failure to the lack of enforcement mechanisms and self-differentiation which leaves parties without sufficient motivation to independently and ambitiously determine their contributions.When asked whether the shortcomings of the Paris Agreement could lead to frustration among parties and questioning its effectiveness and pushing for a new treaty,70%of African LDCs viewed this scenario as unlikely.However,Papua New Guinea’s recent decision to boycott climate negotiations in Baku,Azerbaijan,due to unfulfilled climate finance commitments,highlights the growing frustration among parties over the gap between the promise of the Paris Agreement and its actual delivery especially to developing countries.The study found that African LDCs generally view the Paris Agreement as equitable,given its recognition of their vulnerabilities and its emphasis on broadening global climate action to include emerging economies and nonstate actors.Though LDCs from Africa welcome the inclusion of the emerging developing countries to take up enhanced commitments almost comparable to developed countries,though they also feel that treating these countries as developed is equally unfair.The study found that the agreement falls short in critical areas,particularly in failing to mobilize climate ambition particularly mitigation and climate finance to support the achievement of the 1.5℃ temperature goal and efforts to build adaptation and resilience of the most affected.These challenges significantly impede the efforts of LDCs to implement their ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs),particularly in mitigation,which is almost entirely reliant on international cooperation and support.To bridge these gaps,the study is making recommendations for urgent reforms in the UNFCCC process that would ensure meaningful inclusion of LDCs and the successful achievement of global climate goals.展开更多
文摘Community vulnerability to climate change can be conceptualized as an aggregate of three vulnerability components: exposure to climatic stress, sensitivity to climate stress and adaptive capacity. However, even within similar regions these vulnerability components are spatially differentiated necessitating the understanding of a regions vulnerability pattern before targeting adaptation assistance. This research sought to understand the differentiated vulnerability patterns of communities in Kitui County as well as the existing coping strategies to guide implementation of adaptation assistance. Indicator approach to vulnerability assessment and focus group discussions were used to understand the vulnerability pattern and coping strategies respectively. Results showed a differentiated vulnerability pattern with a west to east gradient across Kitui County. The pattern exhibited less vulnerability scores on the western and central parts and more vulnerability scores on the eastern and northern parts of the County. Existing coping strategies have become inadequate with increasing climate variability, severity and frequency of extreme climate events, which render the communities even more vulnerable. The patterns of vulnerability can guide appropriate targeting of adaptation assistance and in turn lead to improved climate change resilience and community livelihoods.
文摘River basins in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa have traditionally been utilized for pastoral livelihoods under communal land tenure. Communities in West Pokot in Kenya have continued to experience increased precipitation and temperature as a result of climate variability and change. This study aimed at assessing the impact of climate variability and change at micro-basin level in order to address research and policy gaps on climate change and food security as policy arena shifts from centralized to decentralized governance in Kenya. Primary quantitative data was collected from 387 households’ perceptions of climate variability and change and its implications on food security were measured. Food security index score was calculated. The annual rainfall trend over Suam river basin for the period (1981-2020), was characterized by a linearly increasing annual rainfall trend. Mann Kendall test Z-statistics and Tau were at 2.3578 and 0.0720 respectively. The basin experienced the highest rainfall variability during the first decade (1981-1990) with the highest coefficient of rainfall variation noted at 11.5%. The highest temperature was recorded in the third decade (2001-2010) and fourth decade (2011-2020) at 27.0 and 28.2 degrees Celsius respectively. However, the overall index score for food security was 55.78 with food availability scoring the highest index, mean (SD) of 63.41 (36.52). This was attributed to households’ practice of both nomadic pastoralism and agro-pastoralism activities. Climate variability and change, have resulted in increased amount of rainfall received providing for opportunity investment in rain water harvesting to support both pastoralism and agro-pastoralism production to enhance food security.
文摘Charcoal is the main cooking source of energy used by millions of households in Somalia and has been described as “black gold” because of the revenue it produces. The objective of this study was to understand the extent of land cover change, given the widely reported charcoal trade in the South of Somalia. Land cover change analysis was done using remotely data from Landsat imagery. Different images covering all districts in Lower Jubba from 1993/95, 2000 and 2014 were analysed and compared. A survey was conducted in Lower Jubba to determine the divers of deforestation and degradation in the region. Results showed a 50% reduction in forest cover and a 17% reduction in woodlands between 1993/95 and 2014. Results from the survey showed charcoal production as a maladaptive response to climate extremes. If business continues as usual with deforestation, the entire area could completely be deforested in the future. Results from this study can be useful in the development of strategies for reforestation, environmental management and sustainable development for this region.
文摘Somalia has faced severe challenges linked to climate variability, which has been exacerbated by conflict and limited governance that persisted for decades. Today climate extremes such as floods, drought, and coastal marine severe systems among others are always associated with the destruction of property and livelihoods;losses of lives lost, migrations, and resource based conflicts among many other miseries. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that climate change is real and requires sound knowledge of local future climate change scenarios. The study attempted to provide projected rainfall and temperature change scenarios over Lower Jubba, Somalia. This was done using the downscaled Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) RCMs data. The simulated temperature and rainfall data derived from the CORDEX RCMs ensemble were compared with the observed data. The study focused on the IPCC projected periods of 2030, 2050 and 2070 benchmarks. Analysis of the projected rainfall indicated a decreasing trend in rainfall leading up to 2030 followed by an increase in rainfall with the 2050 and 2070 scenarios. In the case of temperature, the projections from all the models showed increase in minimum and maximum temperatures in all seasons and sub periods, like being observed by temperature projection over other parts of the world. The 2030, 2050 and 2070 projected rainfall and temperature change scenarios show that Somalia future development and livelihoods will in future face increased threats of climate extremes unless effective climate smart adaptation systems form integral components of national development strategies.
文摘Due to global land surface warming, severe temperature events are expected to occur more frequently and more extremely causing changes in biodiversity and altering movement and survival of large herbivores. There are increasing observations of escalating wildlife range losses worldwide. In this study, we investigated 15 large wild herbivores (4 migratory, 1 dispersing and 10 residents) and their potential range changes in relation to projected temperatures changes based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Previous studies of Kenyan savannah have shown that increases in temperature can reduce the densities of wildlife significantly and after certain thresholds the species can be lost in those landscapes. The range maps of the 15 species were developed from aerial censuses that have been conducted in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. We analysed temperature changes for the three RCPs for the periods 2030s, 2050s and 2070s. And based on the temperature threshold for each of the 15 species we analysed which wildlife range areas will be lost. Our results project that for the RCP 2.6, 3 out of the 15 species are projected to lose more than 50% of their range by the year 2030s, and 5 out 15 by 2050s and 4 of 15 by 2070s. The second climate scenario of RCP 4.5 projects that by 2030s, 3 species will lose more than 50% of their range, and in 2050s and 2070s 5 species. The RCP 8.5 which is the extreme scenario of temperature changes projects 5 species to lose their range by 50% in 2030s, 7 species by 2050s and 10 species by 2070s. The extent of range loss was different among species but was severe for buffalo, Thomson’s gazelle, waterbuck, and wildebeest which are also water dependent species. However, the elephant, gerenuk, hartebeest, lesser kudu, and oryx are expected to retain most of their range in all the RCPs scenarios. These range contractions raise serious concerns about the future of wildlife in Kenyan savannah based on projected climate changes. And therefore, it is imperative the wildlife sector develops climate policies and plans that take into account the projected climate scenarios.
文摘Within savanna environments, movements of elephant are influenced by changes in climate especially seasonal rainfall. In this study, we investigated the possible changes in elephant population based on projected rainfall changes using regional climate models (RCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The relationship between elephant and rainfall was modelled against annual, wet season, dry season rainfall based on various time lags. Future relation between elephant and rainfall was projected based on three RCPs;2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. There was a strong linear relationship between elephant and October-November-December (OND) rains with time lag of 13 years (Y = −4016.43 + 19.11x, r2 = 0.459, P = 0.006). The rainfall trends for RCP 2.6 and 4.5 showed a slight increase in annual rainfall for the period 2006-2100 but driven by OND increases. Rainfall increase for RCP 8.5 was significant and was driven by increase in both March-April-May (MAM) and OND. These rainfall dynamics had influence on the projected elephant population in the Amboseli ecosystem. For RCP 2.6 and 4.5 the elephant population increase was 2455 and 2814 respectively. RCP 8.5 elephant population doubled to an average of 3348 elephants. In all the RCPs there are seasonal and yearly variations and absolute number varies from the average. The range of variation is small in RCPs 2.6 and 4.5 compared to RCP 8.5. Evidently, elephant population will increase based on projected rainfall projections surpassing park capacity. It therefore, requires that the Park authority put in place measures that could contain these numbers including opening of blocked wildlife corridors, maintain the cross border movement of Amboseli elephant with Tanzania in that case ensure there is no poaching. Lastly, work with local communities so that they can benefit from tourism through setting up conservancies through which they could minimize the human elephant conflicts based on the projected elephant population.
文摘Especially for smallholder farmers with limited land and financial resources,farming in arid and semi-arid lands(ASALs),where season-to-season rainfall fluctuation dictates production,is a risky business.Through participatory approaches,this study compares deterministic and probabilistic interpretations of climate forecasts and their use by smallholder farmers through a crop-growing season.The study revealed that deterministic advisories are good for smallholder farmers only when formulated from forecasts with higher accuracy than the historical climatological distribution.Otherwise,they cause farm loss in terms of labor and inputs.On the other hand,probabilistic advisories help farmers spread the risk to cater to all the uncertainty and in so doing bring out a balance between confidence and caution.However,farmers must be supported with enough sensitization to comprehend forecast probability,translate it into probabilistic advisories and use that to plan and manage farm activities.The findings support the hypothesis providing packaged climate products in transparent probabilistic terms in place of deterministic form can overcome inherent credibility challenges.The study’s conclusion highlights important takeaways and new understandings of the advantage of using probabilistic advisories among resource-poor smallholder farmers.
文摘The Paris Agreement’s differentiation architecture is a key feature of the international climate regime,enabling countries to submit climate action plans based on their unique national circumstances.The study is designed to investigate the impact of the Paris Agreement differentiation architecture on LDCs from Africa engagement in the UNFCCC process.The study adopted an exploratory research design and adopted a census approach to get a sample size of 66 negotiators from 33 LDCs in the Africa Group of Negotiators(AGN)for questionnaire administration.This paper presents part of the results of the research focused on how the Paris Agreement differentiation architecture inad vertently prevails over the unity of the developing countries and consequently drives collective ambition.The study notes the divide and rule elements of the Paris Agreement through strategic coordination challenges between AGN and LDCs from Africa;the LDCs from Africa’s divergent interests from AGN and G77 and China;and the LDCs’appropriation of new friends and partnerships.Consequently,LDCs from Africa are covertly and unassumingly redefining the concept of climate justice by transcending the traditional divide between developed and developing countries that characterized the preParis climate regime in calling for accountability for climate action.The study reveals that the Paris Agreement differentiation system contributes to the weakening of the unity of developing nations in their negotiations in the UNFCCC process,as revealed by how LDCs from Africa participate in the climate negotiations un der the current climate regime.The study further found that LDCs from Africa’s positions and tactics differ from those of other developing countries by opting to use nonstate actors and sometimes collaborating with developed countries.LDCs from Africa have tactfully been indifferent to Africa Group of Negotiators(AGN)interests such as the African Special Circumstances Agenda.While most developing countries have opposed the agenda,the position taken by LDCs from Africa is interesting because these parties come from AGN,which originated and owns this position.The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States(CELAC)growing role in climate discussions,with aspirations to become a formal negotiating group,adds to the diplomatic complexity of the developing countries,which is mainly attributable to the Paris Agreement differentiation framework.The Paris Agreement has resulted in fractured solidarity among developing nations,with developing country groups split into subtle selfinterested entities that only use formal coalitions when it suits them.However,the unintended impact of the fissure is that LDCs from Africa and the rest of the LDCs are constantly pushing both developed and emerging economies for enhanced ambition,which is the primary purpose of the Paris Agreement.The deepened association with developed countries and nonstate actors,especially civil society organizations,is helping LDCs from Africa to push for ambition through lobbying advocacy and enhancing their capacity in negotiations through the inclusion of nonstate actors.Further,this development has enabled LDCs from Africa and others to reshape and redefine the concept of climate justice by advocating for a combined consideration of both historical responsibility and the current actions which ultimately brings emerging developing countries into the fold of accountability The study draws recommendations for LDCs from Africa to ensure unity of developing countries to keep negotiating as one for climate ambition while maintaining flexibility for individual parties to pursue their interests in alignment with the new climate regime.
文摘Equity and fairness are fundamental principles in climate negotiations under the UNFCCC,essential for incentivizing active and effective participation of all parties involved.Historically,the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities(CBDR-RC)has been used to define the fairness and equitability of the international climate process which placed considerable accountability on developed nations on account of their historical responsibility for climate change and their capacity to address the problem.However,the Paris Agreement marked a shift toward a more inclusive global approach,requiring all countries to submit climate action plans tailored to their unique circumstances.Under the Paris Agreement,developing countries which were historically inculpable are also required to take comparable climate action alongside developed countries albeit in accordance with their socio-economic uniqueness.The study examined how Least Developed Countries(LDCs),from Africa,a sub-set of the developing countries within the African Group of Negotiators(AGN)perceive fairness and equity within the Paris Agreement framework.Using exploratory research,focused informant interviews and questionnaire to LDCs negotiators from Africa found that these countries acknowledge the retention of preferential provisions—such as flexible reporting requirements and targeted financial support—in the Paris Agreement as an important element in their consideration of fairness and equitability of the regime given their socio-economic status,vulnerability,and susceptibility to negative impacts to climate change have not improved since 1997.On the other hand,the study found that LDCs from Africa continue to face an avalanche of structural and systematic challenges in international climate negotiations which include inadequate representation,limited access to scientific information,and power imbalances with developed and emerging developing countries which necessitated the retention of the flexibilities and preferential conditions in the current climate regime.About 75% of the LDCs from Africa negotiators think that the retention of flexibilities enables them to participate in climate action in accordance with their abilities while allowing space to participate in their sustainable development and socio-economic pursuits without any restraining obligations.Despite these challenges,African LDCs from Africa,have developed ambitious NDCs,with 80% adopting economywide and long-term low-carbon strategies.Their commitment to implementation of the critical parts of the Paris Agreement relies heavily on targeted and preferential provision of international cooperation,reflecting both their trust in the UNFCCC and the crucial role that perceptions of fairness and equity play in sustaining this trust.To address the structure and system challenges,African LDCs have adopted innovative negotiation strategies to enhance their influence and achieve significant breakthroughs in climate diplomacy.African LDCs hold mixed views on the Paris Agreement’s approach to differentiation.While they acknowledge the Paris Agreement’s efforts to mobilize climate ambition through NDCs and provide flexibilities and preferential support for implementation,many strongly believe it falls short in delivering true fairness and equity.The research identified the Paris Agreement’s Achilles heel as its inability to effectively and practically incentivize climate ambition among parties as anticipated by the objectives of the treaty.Sixty-five percent(65%)of respondents attribute this failure to the lack of enforcement mechanisms and self-differentiation which leaves parties without sufficient motivation to independently and ambitiously determine their contributions.When asked whether the shortcomings of the Paris Agreement could lead to frustration among parties and questioning its effectiveness and pushing for a new treaty,70%of African LDCs viewed this scenario as unlikely.However,Papua New Guinea’s recent decision to boycott climate negotiations in Baku,Azerbaijan,due to unfulfilled climate finance commitments,highlights the growing frustration among parties over the gap between the promise of the Paris Agreement and its actual delivery especially to developing countries.The study found that African LDCs generally view the Paris Agreement as equitable,given its recognition of their vulnerabilities and its emphasis on broadening global climate action to include emerging economies and nonstate actors.Though LDCs from Africa welcome the inclusion of the emerging developing countries to take up enhanced commitments almost comparable to developed countries,though they also feel that treating these countries as developed is equally unfair.The study found that the agreement falls short in critical areas,particularly in failing to mobilize climate ambition particularly mitigation and climate finance to support the achievement of the 1.5℃ temperature goal and efforts to build adaptation and resilience of the most affected.These challenges significantly impede the efforts of LDCs to implement their ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs),particularly in mitigation,which is almost entirely reliant on international cooperation and support.To bridge these gaps,the study is making recommendations for urgent reforms in the UNFCCC process that would ensure meaningful inclusion of LDCs and the successful achievement of global climate goals.
