An observation-based Galactic Cosmic Ray(GCR)spectral model for heavy nuclei is developed.Zhao and Qin[J.Geophys.Res.Space Phys.118,1837(2013)]proposed an empirical elemental GCR spectra model for nuclear charge 5≤z...An observation-based Galactic Cosmic Ray(GCR)spectral model for heavy nuclei is developed.Zhao and Qin[J.Geophys.Res.Space Phys.118,1837(2013)]proposed an empirical elemental GCR spectra model for nuclear charge 5≤z≤28 over the energy range^30 to 500 Me V/nuc,which is proved to be successful in predicting yearly averaged GCR heavy nuclei spectra.Based on the latest highly statistically precise measurements from ACE/CRIS,a further elemental GCR model with monthly averaged spectra is presented.The model can reproduce the past and predict the future GCR intensity monthly by correlating model parameters with the continuous sunspot number(SSN)record.The effects of solar activity on GCR modulation are considered separately for odd and even solar cycles.Compared with other comprehensive GCR models,our modeling results are satisfyingly consistent with the GCR spectral measurements from ACE/SIS and IMP-8,and have comparable prediction accuracy as the Badhwar&O’Neill 2014 model.A detailed error analysis is also provided.Finally,the GCR carbon and iron nuclei fluxes for the subsequent two solar cycles(SC 25 and 26)are predicted and they show a potential trend in reduced flux amplitude,which is suspected to be relevant to possible weak solar cycles.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41174165,and 41504133)the partial support of the National Science Foundation of USA(Grant Nos.EPSCo R RII-Track-1 Cooperative Agreement OIA-1655280,NASA grants NNX08AJ33G,Subaward 37gvfv102-2,NNX14AC08G,NNX14AJ53G,A99132BT,RR185-447/4944336 and NNX12AB30G)+1 种基金partial support of National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFC1407304,and 2018YFF01013706)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory(Grant Nos.201801003,and 315030409)
文摘An observation-based Galactic Cosmic Ray(GCR)spectral model for heavy nuclei is developed.Zhao and Qin[J.Geophys.Res.Space Phys.118,1837(2013)]proposed an empirical elemental GCR spectra model for nuclear charge 5≤z≤28 over the energy range^30 to 500 Me V/nuc,which is proved to be successful in predicting yearly averaged GCR heavy nuclei spectra.Based on the latest highly statistically precise measurements from ACE/CRIS,a further elemental GCR model with monthly averaged spectra is presented.The model can reproduce the past and predict the future GCR intensity monthly by correlating model parameters with the continuous sunspot number(SSN)record.The effects of solar activity on GCR modulation are considered separately for odd and even solar cycles.Compared with other comprehensive GCR models,our modeling results are satisfyingly consistent with the GCR spectral measurements from ACE/SIS and IMP-8,and have comparable prediction accuracy as the Badhwar&O’Neill 2014 model.A detailed error analysis is also provided.Finally,the GCR carbon and iron nuclei fluxes for the subsequent two solar cycles(SC 25 and 26)are predicted and they show a potential trend in reduced flux amplitude,which is suspected to be relevant to possible weak solar cycles.
