Heating in the ocean has continued in 2024 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,despite the transition from an El Ni?o to neutral conditions. In 2024, both global sea surface temper...Heating in the ocean has continued in 2024 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,despite the transition from an El Ni?o to neutral conditions. In 2024, both global sea surface temperature(SST) and upper2000 m ocean heat content(OHC) reached unprecedented highs in the historical record. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2024exceeded that of 2023 by 16 ± 8 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules, with a 95% confidence interval)(IAP/CAS data), which is confirmed by two other data products: 18 ± 7 ZJ(CIGAR-RT reanalysis data) and 40 ± 31 ZJ(Copernicus Marine data,updated to November 2024). The Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Ocean also experienced record-high OHC values in 2024. The global SST continued its record-high values from2023 into the first half of 2024, and declined slightly in the second half of 2024, resulting in an annual mean of 0.61°C ±0.02°C(IAP/CAS data) above the 1981–2010 baseline, slightly higher than the 2023 annual-mean value(by 0.07°C ±0.02°C for IAP/CAS, 0.05°C ± 0.02°C for NOAA/NCEI, and 0.06°C ± 0.11°C for Copernicus Marine). The record-high values of 2024 SST and OHC continue to indicate unabated trends of global heating.展开更多
Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse...Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules = 1021Joules);and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins(the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier–fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022,implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Ni?a event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.展开更多
The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content(OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC cha...The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content(OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2021 from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than last year’s record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ(1 zetta J = 1021 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans,and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2021. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.展开更多
Human-emitted greenhouse gases(GHGs)have resulted in a long-term and unequivocal warming of the planet(IPCC,2019).More than 90%of the excess heat is stored within the world's oceans,where it accumulates and causes...Human-emitted greenhouse gases(GHGs)have resulted in a long-term and unequivocal warming of the planet(IPCC,2019).More than 90%of the excess heat is stored within the world's oceans,where it accumulates and causes increases in ocean temperature(Rhein et al.,2013;Abram et al.,2019).展开更多
The long-term warming of the ocean is a critical indicator of both the past and present state of the climate system. It also provides insights about the changes to come, owing to the persistence of both decadal variat...The long-term warming of the ocean is a critical indicator of both the past and present state of the climate system. It also provides insights about the changes to come, owing to the persistence of both decadal variations and secular trends,which the ocean records extremely well(Hansen et al., 2011;IPCC, 2013;Rhein et al., 2013;Trenberth et al., 2016;Abram et al., 2019).展开更多
The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m oc...The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record highs.The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s.Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.展开更多
The increasing heat-trapping gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere produce an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation that leads to global heating(Rhein et al....The increasing heat-trapping gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere produce an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation that leads to global heating(Rhein et al.,2013;Trenberth et al.,2014;von Schuckmann et al.,2016).The vast majority of global warming heat ends up deposited in the world’s oceans,and ocean heat content(OHC)change is one of the best—if not the best—metric for climate change(Cheng et al.,2019).In 2018,continued record heat was measured in the Earth’s climate system.In fact,2018 has set a new record of ocean heating,surpassing 2017,which was the previous warmest year ever recorded(Cheng et al.,2018)(Fig.1).展开更多
The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges.The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm s...The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges.The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm surges.A hydrodynamic model,which is operational at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,is applied to conduct surge simulations for South China coastal areas using the best track data with parametric wind and pressure models.The results agree well with tidal gauge observations.To improve the calculation efficiency,the hydrodynamic model is modified using CUDA Fortran.The calculation results are almost the same as those from the original model,but the calculation time is reduced by more than 99%.A total of 150 typhoon cases are generated by combining 50 typhoon tracks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with three possible typhoon intensity forecasts.The surge ensembles are computed by the improved hydrodynamic model.Based on the simulated storm surges for the different typhoon cases,ensemble and probability forecast products can be provided.The mean ensemble results and probability forecast products are shown to agree well with the observed storm surge caused by Typhoon Mangkhut.The improved model is highly suitable for ensemble numerical forecasts,providing better forecast products for decision-making,and can be easily implemented to run on regular workstations.展开更多
The tsunami was a sudden marine disasters. Tsunami waves can quickly spread to near-shore and cause the disaster after the tsunami. So it is very important of timely monitoring and early warning of the tsunami. After ...The tsunami was a sudden marine disasters. Tsunami waves can quickly spread to near-shore and cause the disaster after the tsunami. So it is very important of timely monitoring and early warning of the tsunami. After several unsuccessful tsunami forecasting, the United States developed tsunami buoy specifically for the early detection of tsunami waves. Tsunami buoy can not only be able to display occurrence of the tsunami, it is real time data but also be assimilated into the tsunami warning system, to improve the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting. Several tsunami events in the recent few years have proven the important role of the tsunami buoys. Subsequently, the tsunami warning system based on tsunami buoys was into regular operation. The system accurately predicted the results on March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami event. State Oceanic Administration （SOA）, China also deployed 2 tsunami buoys in the South China Sea （SCS）, which also played an important role in the warning process of Japan tsunami on March 11, 2011. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center/State Oceanic Administration （NMEFC/SOA） will collaborate with Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （PMEL/NOAA） to develop assimilation method making use of real time data of tsunami buoy and build a forecasting system in SCS in the future.展开更多
The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase(LNP)were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel,Chile by examining the wave characteristics ...The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase(LNP)were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel,Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami(DART)sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations.The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min(approximately 1.7%of the total travel time)relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami.The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time.It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise,but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean.We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min,which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source.Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40%,with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude.We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model,which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility,self-attraction and loading(SAL)of the earth,and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms.We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP,and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event.The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model.Taking all of these effects into consideration,our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms.We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP,which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently.The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to<8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished.The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78%of the travel time delay correction,with seawater density stratification,SAL,and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39%,21%,and 18%,respectively.The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event.In contrast,the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed,whereas the earth’s elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations.This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival,and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami.These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies.展开更多
Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important me...Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.展开更多
This paper presents an efficient algorithm for generating a spherical multiple-cell(SMC)grid.The algorithm adopts a recursive loop structure and provides two refinement methods:(1)an arbitrary area refinement method a...This paper presents an efficient algorithm for generating a spherical multiple-cell(SMC)grid.The algorithm adopts a recursive loop structure and provides two refinement methods:(1)an arbitrary area refinement method and(2)a nearshore refinement method.Numerical experiments are carried out,and the results show that compared with the existing grid generation algorithm,this algorithm is more flexible and operable.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2023YFF0806500)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.060GJHZ2024064MI)+10 种基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Research Council of Italy Scientific Cooperative Programmethe new Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZEthe National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” (Earth Lab), and Ocean Negative Carbon Emissions (ONCE)sponsored by the US National Science Foundationsupported by the Young Talent Support Project of Guangzhou Association for Science and Technologythe Open Research Cruise NORC2022-10+NORC2022-303 supported by NSFC shiptime Sharing Projects 42149910supported by NASA Awards 80NSSC17K0565, 80NSSC21K1191, and 80NSSC22K0046by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S.Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1947282supported by NOAA (Grant No.NA19NES4320002 to CISESS-MD at the University of Maryland)supported by the Austrian Science Fund (P33177)ESA (contract ref.4000145298/24/I-LR)。
文摘Heating in the ocean has continued in 2024 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,despite the transition from an El Ni?o to neutral conditions. In 2024, both global sea surface temperature(SST) and upper2000 m ocean heat content(OHC) reached unprecedented highs in the historical record. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2024exceeded that of 2023 by 16 ± 8 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules, with a 95% confidence interval)(IAP/CAS data), which is confirmed by two other data products: 18 ± 7 ZJ(CIGAR-RT reanalysis data) and 40 ± 31 ZJ(Copernicus Marine data,updated to November 2024). The Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Ocean also experienced record-high OHC values in 2024. The global SST continued its record-high values from2023 into the first half of 2024, and declined slightly in the second half of 2024, resulting in an annual mean of 0.61°C ±0.02°C(IAP/CAS data) above the 1981–2010 baseline, slightly higher than the 2023 annual-mean value(by 0.07°C ±0.02°C for IAP/CAS, 0.05°C ± 0.02°C for NOAA/NCEI, and 0.06°C ± 0.11°C for Copernicus Marine). The record-high values of 2024 SST and OHC continue to indicate unabated trends of global heating.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42122046 and 42076202)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDB42040402)+4 种基金sponsored by the US National Science Foundationsupported by NASA Awards 80NSSC17K0565 and 80NSSC22K0046by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1947282supported by NOAA (Grant No. NA19NES4320002 to CISESS-MD at the University of Maryland)supported by the Young Talent Support Project of Guangzhou Association for Science and Technology。
文摘Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules = 1021Joules);and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins(the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier–fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022,implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Ni?a event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42122046,42076202)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB42040402)+5 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42076202)National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0603202)Key Deployment Project of Centre for Ocean Mega-Research of Science,CAS(Grant Nos.COMS2019Q01 and COMS2019Q07)NCAR is sponsored by the US National Science Foundationsupported by NASA Award 80NSSC17K0565the Regional and Global Model Analysis(RGMA)component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S.Department of Energy’s Office of Biological&Environmental Research(BER)via National Science Foundation IA 1844590。
文摘The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content(OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2021 from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than last year’s record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ(1 zetta J = 1021 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans,and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2021. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2016YFC1401806 and 2017YFA0603202)sponsored by the US National Science Foundation+2 种基金funded in partnership with the NOAA OAR Ocean Observing and Monitoring Divisionpartially supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590supported in part by NSF Award #AGS-1419571
文摘Human-emitted greenhouse gases(GHGs)have resulted in a long-term and unequivocal warming of the planet(IPCC,2019).More than 90%of the excess heat is stored within the world's oceans,where it accumulates and causes increases in ocean temperature(Rhein et al.,2013;Abram et al.,2019).
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFA0603202)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDB42040402)+4 种基金Key Deployment Project of Centre for Ocean Mega-Research of Science, CAS (Grant No. COMS2019Q01)sponsored by the US National Science Foundationsupported by NASA Award 80NSSC17K0565the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590partially supported by NOAA (grant NA14NES4320003 to CISESS-MD at the University of Maryland)。
文摘The long-term warming of the ocean is a critical indicator of both the past and present state of the climate system. It also provides insights about the changes to come, owing to the persistence of both decadal variations and secular trends,which the ocean records extremely well(Hansen et al., 2011;IPCC, 2013;Rhein et al., 2013;Trenberth et al., 2016;Abram et al., 2019).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42076202, 42122046, 42206208 and 42261134536)the Open Research Cruise NORC2022-10+NORC2022-303 supported by NSFC shiptime Sharing Projects 42149910+7 种基金the new Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE, DAMO Academy Young Fellow, Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” (EarthLab)sponsored by the US National Science Foundationsupported by NASA Awards 80NSSC17K0565, 80NSSC21K1191, and 80NSSC22K0046by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1947282supported by NOAA (Grant No. NA19NES4320002 to CISESS-MD at the University of Maryland)supported by the Young Talent Support Project of Guangzhou Association for Science and Technologyfunded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in agreement between INGV, ENEA, and GNV SpA shipping company that provides hospitality on its commercial vessels
文摘The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record highs.The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s.Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2017YFA0603202 and 2016YFC1401705)
文摘The increasing heat-trapping gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere produce an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation that leads to global heating(Rhein et al.,2013;Trenberth et al.,2014;von Schuckmann et al.,2016).The vast majority of global warming heat ends up deposited in the world’s oceans,and ocean heat content(OHC)change is one of the best—if not the best—metric for climate change(Cheng et al.,2019).In 2018,continued record heat was measured in the Earth’s climate system.In fact,2018 has set a new record of ocean heating,surpassing 2017,which was the previous warmest year ever recorded(Cheng et al.,2018)(Fig.1).
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2016YFC14015032018YFC140066 and 2018YFC1407001。
文摘The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges.The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm surges.A hydrodynamic model,which is operational at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,is applied to conduct surge simulations for South China coastal areas using the best track data with parametric wind and pressure models.The results agree well with tidal gauge observations.To improve the calculation efficiency,the hydrodynamic model is modified using CUDA Fortran.The calculation results are almost the same as those from the original model,but the calculation time is reduced by more than 99%.A total of 150 typhoon cases are generated by combining 50 typhoon tracks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with three possible typhoon intensity forecasts.The surge ensembles are computed by the improved hydrodynamic model.Based on the simulated storm surges for the different typhoon cases,ensemble and probability forecast products can be provided.The mean ensemble results and probability forecast products are shown to agree well with the observed storm surge caused by Typhoon Mangkhut.The improved model is highly suitable for ensemble numerical forecasts,providing better forecast products for decision-making,and can be easily implemented to run on regular workstations.
文摘The tsunami was a sudden marine disasters. Tsunami waves can quickly spread to near-shore and cause the disaster after the tsunami. So it is very important of timely monitoring and early warning of the tsunami. After several unsuccessful tsunami forecasting, the United States developed tsunami buoy specifically for the early detection of tsunami waves. Tsunami buoy can not only be able to display occurrence of the tsunami, it is real time data but also be assimilated into the tsunami warning system, to improve the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting. Several tsunami events in the recent few years have proven the important role of the tsunami buoys. Subsequently, the tsunami warning system based on tsunami buoys was into regular operation. The system accurately predicted the results on March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami event. State Oceanic Administration （SOA）, China also deployed 2 tsunami buoys in the South China Sea （SCS）, which also played an important role in the warning process of Japan tsunami on March 11, 2011. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center/State Oceanic Administration （NMEFC/SOA） will collaborate with Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （PMEL/NOAA） to develop assimilation method making use of real time data of tsunami buoy and build a forecasting system in SCS in the future.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2018YFC1407000 and2016YFC1401500the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41806045 and 51579090。
文摘The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase(LNP)were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel,Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami(DART)sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations.The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min(approximately 1.7%of the total travel time)relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami.The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time.It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise,but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean.We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min,which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source.Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40%,with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude.We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model,which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility,self-attraction and loading(SAL)of the earth,and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms.We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP,and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event.The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model.Taking all of these effects into consideration,our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms.We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP,which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently.The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to<8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished.The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78%of the travel time delay correction,with seawater density stratification,SAL,and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39%,21%,and 18%,respectively.The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event.In contrast,the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed,whereas the earth’s elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations.This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival,and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami.These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42076214.
文摘Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2018YFC1407000.
文摘This paper presents an efficient algorithm for generating a spherical multiple-cell(SMC)grid.The algorithm adopts a recursive loop structure and provides two refinement methods:(1)an arbitrary area refinement method and(2)a nearshore refinement method.Numerical experiments are carried out,and the results show that compared with the existing grid generation algorithm,this algorithm is more flexible and operable.
