This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the world.These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical mo...This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the world.These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity.In addition,several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood.Realtime Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018.Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018.Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins.A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal(e.g.,multi-year)timescales is included.Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.展开更多
This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientific community has been in understanding the sources of...This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientific community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).In particular,the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Pacific by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation(BSISO)has been documented.Progress has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal forecasts.In addition,several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of TCs.Analyses of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)and Subseasonal Experiment(SubX)have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its impacts.The skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).More extensive verification studies have been published over the last four years,but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific.展开更多
Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s.However,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society a...Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s.However,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making.To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting.In particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC predictions.We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations.New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.展开更多
基金supported by the G.Unger Vetlesen Foundationfinancial support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme(EUCP+5 种基金grant agreement no.776613)from the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad(MINECO)as part of the CLINSA(CGL2017-85791-R)and HIATUS(CGL2015-70353-R)projectssupport of JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers JP17K14395 and JP17K01223financial support from the National Typhoon Center at the Korea Meteorological Administration("Research and Development for Numerical Weather Prediction and Earthquake Services"project)support from the UK Public Weather Service research programmesupported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China Grant E-CityU101/16.
文摘This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the world.These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity.In addition,several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood.Realtime Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018.Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018.Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins.A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal(e.g.,multi-year)timescales is included.Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.
基金NOAA through the Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies under Cooperative Agreement NA19NES4320002.Janiga acknowledges the support of the Chief of Naval Research through the NRL Base Program PE 62435N.Camargo and Lee acknowledge support from the NASA MAP program(80NSSC21K1495)Camargo also acknowledges support from NOAA(NA22OAR4310610)the Vetlesen Foundation.Wang was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No.2116804。
文摘This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientific community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).In particular,the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Pacific by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation(BSISO)has been documented.Progress has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal forecasts.In addition,several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of TCs.Analyses of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)and Subseasonal Experiment(SubX)have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its impacts.The skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).More extensive verification studies have been published over the last four years,but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific.
基金support of the MEXT program for the advanced studies of climate change projection(SENTAN),Grant Numbers JPMXD0722680395 and JPMXD0722680734Julia Lockwood would like to acknowledge funding from the C3S_34c contract(number:ECMWF/COPERNICUS/2019/C3S_34c_DWD)of the Copernicus Climate Change Service operated by ECMWF.
文摘Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s.However,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making.To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting.In particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC predictions.We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations.New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.
