We investigate global temperature data produced by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (CRU) and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature consortium (BEST). We first fit the 1850-2010 data with po...We investigate global temperature data produced by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (CRU) and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature consortium (BEST). We first fit the 1850-2010 data with polynomials of degrees 1 to 9. A significant ~60-yr oscillation is accounted for as soon as degree 4 is reached. This oscillation is even better modeled as a broken line, more precisely a series of ~30-yr long linear segments, with slope breaks (singularities) in ~1904, ~1940, and ~1974 (±3 yr), and a possible recent occurrence at the turn of the 20th century. Oceanic indices PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) have undergone major changes (respectively of sign and slope) roughly at the same times as the temperature slope breaks. This can be interpreted with a system of oceanic non-linear coupled oscillators with abrupt mode shifts. Thus, the Earth’s climate may have entered a new mode (a new ~30-yr episode) near the turn of the 20th century: no further temperature increase, a dominantly negative PDO index and a decreasing AMO index might be expected for the next decade or two.展开更多
AIM: To detect ophthalmic adverse drug reactions(ADRs), that occurred in Portugal from 2000 to 2009, through the utilization of administrative hospital databases. We also intended to compare the results of this method...AIM: To detect ophthalmic adverse drug reactions(ADRs), that occurred in Portugal from 2000 to 2009, through the utilization of administrative hospital databases. We also intended to compare the results of this methodology with spontaneous reporting.METHODS: We conducted a retrospective nationwide study using hospital administrative databases, which included all inpatients and outpatients in all public hospitals in Portugal, from 2000 to 2009. We used International Classification of Diseases- 9th Revision- Clinical Modification(ICD-9-CM) coding data that allowed the detection of ADRs. We used WHO's definition for ADR. We searched all of ICD-9-CM terms in Ophthalmology for codes that included "drug-induced", "iatrogenic", "toxic" and all other that could signal an ADR, such as "362.55- toxic maculopathy" or "365.03- steroid responders", and also "E" codes(codes from E930 to E949.9, that exclude intoxications and errors).RESULTS: From 11944725 hospitalizations or ambulatory episodes within that period of time, we identified 1524 probable ophthalmic ADRs(corresponding to a frequency of 1.28 per 10000 episodes) and an additional 100 possible ophthalmic ADRs. We used only 4 person-hours in the application of this methodology. A total of 113 spontaneous reports arose from ophthalmic ADRs from 2000 to 2009 in Portugal(frequency of 0.095 per 10000 episodes).To our knowledge, this was the first estimate of the frequency of ophthalmic ADRs through the use of databases, and the first nationwide estimate of ophthalmic ADRs, in Portugal. We identified 1524 probable ADRs and 100 possible ADRs. CONCLUSION: This database methodology adapted for Ophthalmology may represent a new approach for the detection of ophthalmic ADRs, since these codes exist in the ICD-9-CM classification. Its performance was clearly superior to spontaneous reporting.展开更多
基金financial support from IPGP as part of the IEPT RAS-IPGP cooperation.IPGP Contribution NS 3391.
文摘We investigate global temperature data produced by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (CRU) and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature consortium (BEST). We first fit the 1850-2010 data with polynomials of degrees 1 to 9. A significant ~60-yr oscillation is accounted for as soon as degree 4 is reached. This oscillation is even better modeled as a broken line, more precisely a series of ~30-yr long linear segments, with slope breaks (singularities) in ~1904, ~1940, and ~1974 (±3 yr), and a possible recent occurrence at the turn of the 20th century. Oceanic indices PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) have undergone major changes (respectively of sign and slope) roughly at the same times as the temperature slope breaks. This can be interpreted with a system of oceanic non-linear coupled oscillators with abrupt mode shifts. Thus, the Earth’s climate may have entered a new mode (a new ~30-yr episode) near the turn of the 20th century: no further temperature increase, a dominantly negative PDO index and a decreasing AMO index might be expected for the next decade or two.
基金support given by the research project HR-QoD - Quality of data (outliers, inconsistencies and errors) in hospital inpatient databases: methods and implications for data modeling, cleansing and analysis (project PTDC/SAUESA/75660/2006)
文摘AIM: To detect ophthalmic adverse drug reactions(ADRs), that occurred in Portugal from 2000 to 2009, through the utilization of administrative hospital databases. We also intended to compare the results of this methodology with spontaneous reporting.METHODS: We conducted a retrospective nationwide study using hospital administrative databases, which included all inpatients and outpatients in all public hospitals in Portugal, from 2000 to 2009. We used International Classification of Diseases- 9th Revision- Clinical Modification(ICD-9-CM) coding data that allowed the detection of ADRs. We used WHO's definition for ADR. We searched all of ICD-9-CM terms in Ophthalmology for codes that included "drug-induced", "iatrogenic", "toxic" and all other that could signal an ADR, such as "362.55- toxic maculopathy" or "365.03- steroid responders", and also "E" codes(codes from E930 to E949.9, that exclude intoxications and errors).RESULTS: From 11944725 hospitalizations or ambulatory episodes within that period of time, we identified 1524 probable ophthalmic ADRs(corresponding to a frequency of 1.28 per 10000 episodes) and an additional 100 possible ophthalmic ADRs. We used only 4 person-hours in the application of this methodology. A total of 113 spontaneous reports arose from ophthalmic ADRs from 2000 to 2009 in Portugal(frequency of 0.095 per 10000 episodes).To our knowledge, this was the first estimate of the frequency of ophthalmic ADRs through the use of databases, and the first nationwide estimate of ophthalmic ADRs, in Portugal. We identified 1524 probable ADRs and 100 possible ADRs. CONCLUSION: This database methodology adapted for Ophthalmology may represent a new approach for the detection of ophthalmic ADRs, since these codes exist in the ICD-9-CM classification. Its performance was clearly superior to spontaneous reporting.
