季风亚洲区域集成研究(Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study,简称MAIRS)是国际全球变化研究计划(GEC)和地球系统科学联盟(ESSP)的一个子计划,是全球变化邻域第一个由中国科学家提出,并组织实施的国际计划,历时10余年。MAIRS明确提出...季风亚洲区域集成研究(Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study,简称MAIRS)是国际全球变化研究计划(GEC)和地球系统科学联盟(ESSP)的一个子计划,是全球变化邻域第一个由中国科学家提出,并组织实施的国际计划,历时10余年。MAIRS明确提出:不同于过去和正在进行的任何一个关于季风的研究计划,MAIRS研究的主题是人类与季风系统的相互作用。本文从四个方面回顾了这个计划的历程:(1)2003~2006年的可行性研究。包括区域集成研究概念的提出、亚洲区域全球变化研究的快速评估、以及在此基础上确定MAIRS的总体科学目标和起草MAIRS的科学计划。(2)2006年正式发布的MAIRS科学计划的主要内容。包括季风亚洲区域面临的环境变化和研究挑战、集成研究的科学问题、四个最脆弱区域的确定以及计划执行的方法和手段等。(3)2006~2016年MAIRS计划的执行情况。包括组织结构、科学活动、研究项目和成果、以及国际合作网络的建立。(4)MAIRS的国际影响和未来发展。MAIRS与未来地球国际计划(Future Earth)。展开更多
The role of various mountains in the Asian monsoon system is investigated by AGCM simulations with different mountains. The comparison of the simulation with Asian mountains （MAsia run） with the simulation without m...The role of various mountains in the Asian monsoon system is investigated by AGCM simulations with different mountains. The comparison of the simulation with Asian mountains （MAsia run） with the simulation without mountains （NM run） reveals that the presence of the Asian mountains results in a stronger South Asian summer monsoon （SASM）, characterized by enhanced lower-tropospheric westerly winds, uppertropospheric easterly winds, and stronger water vapor convergence. In East Asia, the southerly winds and water vapor convergence are significantly strengthened in association with the intensified zonal pressure gradient between the East Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean. Both the dynamical and thermodynamic forcing of the Tibetan Plateau play important role in strengthening the Asian summer monsoon. In winter, the presence of Asian mountains significantly strengthens the continental high, which leads to a stronger Asian winter monsoon. The presence of African-Arabian mountains helps to intensify the exchange of mass between the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere by strengthening the cross equatorial flows in the lower and upper troposphere over East Africa. Asian mountains also play a crucial role in the seasonal evolution of Asian monsoons. In comparison with the NM run, the earlier onset and later withdrawal of lower-tropospheric westerly winds can be found over South Asia in the MAsia run, indicating a longer SASM period. The African-Arabian mountains also moderately contribute to the seasonal variation of the South Asian monsoon. In East Asia, the clear southto-north march of the southerly winds and subtropical rainfall starts to occur in early summer when the effects of Asian mountains are considered.展开更多
This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes（CPSs） in the Regional Climate Model（version 4.3）（Reg CM4.3） over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are co...This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes（CPSs） in the Regional Climate Model（version 4.3）（Reg CM4.3） over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean（ELGO） scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS（Grell/Emanuel） over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain（3H） and Tibetan Plateau（TP） regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d^-1and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan（NP）. In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias.展开更多
The effects of vegetation and its seasonal variation on energy and the hydrological cycle were examined using a state-of-the-art Community Atmosphere Model （CAM3）. Three 15-year numerical experiments were completed...The effects of vegetation and its seasonal variation on energy and the hydrological cycle were examined using a state-of-the-art Community Atmosphere Model （CAM3）. Three 15-year numerical experiments were completed： the first with realistic vegetation characteristics varying monthly （VEG run）, the second without vegetation over land （NOVEG run）, and the third with the vegetation characteristics held at their annual mean values （VEGMEAN run）. In these models, the hydrological cycle and land surface energy budget were widely affected by vegetation. Globaland annual-mean evapotranspiration significantly increased compared with the NOVEG by 11.8% in the VEG run run, while runoff decreased by 13.2% when the realistic vegetation is incorporated. Vegetation plays different roles in different regions. In tropical Asia, vegetation-induced cooling of the land surface plays a crucial role in decreasing tropical precipitation. In middle latitudes and the Amazon region, however, the vegetation-induced increase of evapotranspiration plays a more important role in increasing precipitation. The seasonal variation of vegetation also shows clear influences on the hydrological cycle and energy budget. In the boreal mid-high latitudes where vegetation shows a strong seasonal cycle, evapotranspiration and precipitation are higher in the summer in the VEG run than in the VEGMEAN run.展开更多
The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over glob...The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).展开更多
The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coher...The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coherent decrease of trace precipitation despite different reduction magnitudes among the regions. For measurable precipitation, significant regional and seasonal characteristics are observed. In autumn, the whole measurable precipitation decreased over Eastern China (east of 98°E). In summer and winter, a significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light precipitation are detected south of Eastern China. In Western China, measurable precipitation is found to have increased in all four seasons. Composite analysis reveals a quasi-linear relationship between increasing surface temperature and precipitation on a global scale. The responses of precipitation at different intensities to the increased temperature are distinct, with a significant spectra-shifting from light to heavy precipitation. Compared with precipitation over the ocean, the amplification of heavy precipitation over land is relatively less, most likely constrained by the limited water supply. The response of regional precipitation to global warming shows greater uncertainties compared with those on the global scale, perhaps due to interference by more complex topography and land cover, as well as human activities, among other factors.展开更多
Scientific issues relevant to interactions between aerosols and the Asian monsoon climate were discussed and evaluated at the 33 rd "Forum of Science and Technology Frontiers" sponsored by the Department of ...Scientific issues relevant to interactions between aerosols and the Asian monsoon climate were discussed and evaluated at the 33 rd "Forum of Science and Technology Frontiers" sponsored by the Department of Earth Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Major results are summarized in this paper. The East Asian monsoon directly affects aerosol transport and provides a favorable background circulation for the occurrence and development of persistent fog-haze weather. Spatial features of aerosol transport and distribution are also influenced by the East Asian monsoon on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales. High moisture levels in monsoon regions also affect aerosol optical and radiative properties. Observation analyses indicate that cloud physical properties and precipitation are significantly affected by aerosols in China with aerosols likely suppressing local light and moderate rainfall, and intensifying heavy rainfall in southeast coastal regions. However, the detailed mechanisms behind this pattern still need further exploration. The decadal variation in the East Asian monsoon strongly affects aerosol concentrations and their spatial patterns. The weakening monsoon circulation in recent decades has likely helped to increase regional aerosol concentrations. The substantial increase in Chinese air pollutants has likely decreased the temperature difference between land and sea, which favors intensification of the weakening monsoon circulation. Constructive suggestions regarding future studies on aerosols and monsoons were proposed in this forum and key uncertain issues were also discussed.展开更多
The temperature thresholds and timings of the 24 climatic Solar Terms in China are determined from a homogenized dataset of the surface air temperature recorded at 549 meteorological stations for the period 1960-2008 ...The temperature thresholds and timings of the 24 climatic Solar Terms in China are determined from a homogenized dataset of the surface air temperature recorded at 549 meteorological stations for the period 1960-2008 employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method.Changes in the mean temperature and timing of the climatic solar terms are illustrated.The results show that in terms of the mean situation over China,the number of cold days such as those of Slight Cold and Great Cold has decreased,especially by 56.8% for Great Cold in the last 10 years(1998-2007) compared with in the 1960s.The number of hot days like those of Great Heat has increased by 81.4% in the last 10 years compared with in the 1960s.The timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming period(around spring) in the seasonal cycle have advanced significantly by more than 6 d,especially by 15 d for Rain Water,while those during the cooling period(around autumn) have delayed significantly by 5-6 d.These characteristics are mainly due to a warming shift of the whole seasonal cycle under global warming.However,the warming shift affects the different Solar Terms to various extents,more prominently in the spring than in the autumn.The warming tendencies for Rain Water,the Beginning of Spring,and the Waking of Insects are the largest,2.43?C,2.37?C,and 2.21?C,respectively,for the period 1961-2007 in China as a whole.Four particular phenology-related climatic Solar Terms,namely the Waking of Insects,Pure Brightness,Grain Full,and Grain in Ear,are found to have advanced almost everywhere.In semi-arid zones in northern China,advances of the timings of these four climatic Solar Terms are significant,12-16,4-8,4-8,and 8-12 d,respectively,for the period 1961-2007.These quantitative results provide a scientific base for climate change adaptation,especially in terms of agricultural planning and energy-saving management throughout a year.展开更多
The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credib...The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the multi-decadal variability (MDV), have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future cli mate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean tempera ture. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an al ternative approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011–2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection.展开更多
基金Acknowledgements. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions. This research is supported jointly by the ＂National Key Developing Programme for Basic Science＂ project 2006CB400500, National Natural Science Foundation of China General Program Grant Nos. 40905042 and 40675042, and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Grant No. 20070410133.
文摘The role of various mountains in the Asian monsoon system is investigated by AGCM simulations with different mountains. The comparison of the simulation with Asian mountains （MAsia run） with the simulation without mountains （NM run） reveals that the presence of the Asian mountains results in a stronger South Asian summer monsoon （SASM）, characterized by enhanced lower-tropospheric westerly winds, uppertropospheric easterly winds, and stronger water vapor convergence. In East Asia, the southerly winds and water vapor convergence are significantly strengthened in association with the intensified zonal pressure gradient between the East Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean. Both the dynamical and thermodynamic forcing of the Tibetan Plateau play important role in strengthening the Asian summer monsoon. In winter, the presence of Asian mountains significantly strengthens the continental high, which leads to a stronger Asian winter monsoon. The presence of African-Arabian mountains helps to intensify the exchange of mass between the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere by strengthening the cross equatorial flows in the lower and upper troposphere over East Africa. Asian mountains also play a crucial role in the seasonal evolution of Asian monsoons. In comparison with the NM run, the earlier onset and later withdrawal of lower-tropospheric westerly winds can be found over South Asia in the MAsia run, indicating a longer SASM period. The African-Arabian mountains also moderately contribute to the seasonal variation of the South Asian monsoon. In East Asia, the clear southto-north march of the southerly winds and subtropical rainfall starts to occur in early summer when the effects of Asian mountains are considered.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2EW-QN208)a project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41275082)+1 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB428502 and 2011CB952003)the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology) of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology (GYHY201006014-04)
文摘This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes（CPSs） in the Regional Climate Model（version 4.3）（Reg CM4.3） over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean（ELGO） scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS（Grell/Emanuel） over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain（3H） and Tibetan Plateau（TP） regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d^-1and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan（NP）. In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias.
基金supported jointly by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB400502)the Foundation of the Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster KLME0704the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation 20070410133
文摘The effects of vegetation and its seasonal variation on energy and the hydrological cycle were examined using a state-of-the-art Community Atmosphere Model （CAM3）. Three 15-year numerical experiments were completed： the first with realistic vegetation characteristics varying monthly （VEG run）, the second without vegetation over land （NOVEG run）, and the third with the vegetation characteristics held at their annual mean values （VEGMEAN run）. In these models, the hydrological cycle and land surface energy budget were widely affected by vegetation. Globaland annual-mean evapotranspiration significantly increased compared with the NOVEG by 11.8% in the VEG run run, while runoff decreased by 13.2% when the realistic vegetation is incorporated. Vegetation plays different roles in different regions. In tropical Asia, vegetation-induced cooling of the land surface plays a crucial role in decreasing tropical precipitation. In middle latitudes and the Amazon region, however, the vegetation-induced increase of evapotranspiration plays a more important role in increasing precipitation. The seasonal variation of vegetation also shows clear influences on the hydrological cycle and energy budget. In the boreal mid-high latitudes where vegetation shows a strong seasonal cycle, evapotranspiration and precipitation are higher in the summer in the VEG run than in the VEGMEAN run.
基金Supported by the State Key Basic Development Planning Project (Grant No. 2006CB400504)the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-229)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40375028)
文摘The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB952002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40810059003)the project funded by the Priority Academy Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coherent decrease of trace precipitation despite different reduction magnitudes among the regions. For measurable precipitation, significant regional and seasonal characteristics are observed. In autumn, the whole measurable precipitation decreased over Eastern China (east of 98°E). In summer and winter, a significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light precipitation are detected south of Eastern China. In Western China, measurable precipitation is found to have increased in all four seasons. Composite analysis reveals a quasi-linear relationship between increasing surface temperature and precipitation on a global scale. The responses of precipitation at different intensities to the increased temperature are distinct, with a significant spectra-shifting from light to heavy precipitation. Compared with precipitation over the ocean, the amplification of heavy precipitation over land is relatively less, most likely constrained by the limited water supply. The response of regional precipitation to global warming shows greater uncertainties compared with those on the global scale, perhaps due to interference by more complex topography and land cover, as well as human activities, among other factors.
基金the“33rd Frontier Science and Technology Forum”sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.L12220036)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB955803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41205055)
文摘Scientific issues relevant to interactions between aerosols and the Asian monsoon climate were discussed and evaluated at the 33 rd "Forum of Science and Technology Frontiers" sponsored by the Department of Earth Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Major results are summarized in this paper. The East Asian monsoon directly affects aerosol transport and provides a favorable background circulation for the occurrence and development of persistent fog-haze weather. Spatial features of aerosol transport and distribution are also influenced by the East Asian monsoon on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales. High moisture levels in monsoon regions also affect aerosol optical and radiative properties. Observation analyses indicate that cloud physical properties and precipitation are significantly affected by aerosols in China with aerosols likely suppressing local light and moderate rainfall, and intensifying heavy rainfall in southeast coastal regions. However, the detailed mechanisms behind this pattern still need further exploration. The decadal variation in the East Asian monsoon strongly affects aerosol concentrations and their spatial patterns. The weakening monsoon circulation in recent decades has likely helped to increase regional aerosol concentrations. The substantial increase in Chinese air pollutants has likely decreased the temperature difference between land and sea, which favors intensification of the weakening monsoon circulation. Constructive suggestions regarding future studies on aerosols and monsoons were proposed in this forum and key uncertain issues were also discussed.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB952000 and 2009CB421401)the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05090100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41005039 and 40810059003)
文摘The temperature thresholds and timings of the 24 climatic Solar Terms in China are determined from a homogenized dataset of the surface air temperature recorded at 549 meteorological stations for the period 1960-2008 employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method.Changes in the mean temperature and timing of the climatic solar terms are illustrated.The results show that in terms of the mean situation over China,the number of cold days such as those of Slight Cold and Great Cold has decreased,especially by 56.8% for Great Cold in the last 10 years(1998-2007) compared with in the 1960s.The number of hot days like those of Great Heat has increased by 81.4% in the last 10 years compared with in the 1960s.The timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming period(around spring) in the seasonal cycle have advanced significantly by more than 6 d,especially by 15 d for Rain Water,while those during the cooling period(around autumn) have delayed significantly by 5-6 d.These characteristics are mainly due to a warming shift of the whole seasonal cycle under global warming.However,the warming shift affects the different Solar Terms to various extents,more prominently in the spring than in the autumn.The warming tendencies for Rain Water,the Beginning of Spring,and the Waking of Insects are the largest,2.43?C,2.37?C,and 2.21?C,respectively,for the period 1961-2007 in China as a whole.Four particular phenology-related climatic Solar Terms,namely the Waking of Insects,Pure Brightness,Grain Full,and Grain in Ear,are found to have advanced almost everywhere.In semi-arid zones in northern China,advances of the timings of these four climatic Solar Terms are significant,12-16,4-8,4-8,and 8-12 d,respectively,for the period 1961-2007.These quantitative results provide a scientific base for climate change adaptation,especially in terms of agricultural planning and energy-saving management throughout a year.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of Chi-na (Grant No. 2011CB952000)the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China (Grant No. 40810059003)+1 种基金Qian Cheng was partly supported by the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090103)Wu Zhaohua was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of USA (Grant No. ATM-0917743)
文摘The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the multi-decadal variability (MDV), have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future cli mate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean tempera ture. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an al ternative approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011–2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection.
