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用于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)研究的海气耦合模式:纯数据驱动的人工智能(AI)模型的最新进展与挑战
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作者 张荣华 周路 +6 位作者 高川 陶灵江 智海 冯立成 杜双盈 徐邦琪 陆波 《海洋与湖沼》 北大核心 2026年第1期1-21,共21页
基于物理驱动的海气耦合模式在过去几十年中经历了长期发展与应用的过程,极大地推动了对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)现象的表征、理论体系的建立以及实时预测的实现。目前,学术界已经开发了复杂程度各... 基于物理驱动的海气耦合模式在过去几十年中经历了长期发展与应用的过程,极大地推动了对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)现象的表征、理论体系的建立以及实时预测的实现。目前,学术界已经开发了复杂程度各异的海气耦合模式,用于ENSO的模拟和预测,包括简化的中间型海气耦合模式(Intermediate Coupled Models,ICMs)、混合型耦合模式(Hybrid Coupled Models,HCMs)以及更加复杂的耦合环流模式(Coupled General Circulation Models,CGCMs)等。尽管这些模式在ENSO研究中取得了显著进展,其在ENSO预测中的表现仍存在明显的误差和不确定性,亟需开发更为有效的实时预测方法,以提高对ENSO预测的准确性和时效性。近年来,基于数据驱动的人工智能(artificial intelligence,AI)技术在地球科学领域取得了广泛而成功的应用。ENSO作为一个涉及复杂海气变量场时空演变及其高度相关性的耦合系统,已成为AI技术的重要研究和应用领域。特别地,AI技术在非线性表征能力上的优势与ENSO所涉及的复杂而高度非线性海气相互作用等特征高度匹配,能够直接从历史数据中学习并表征与ENSO相关的海洋-大气年际异常场的时空演变规律,从而构建出对未来变化的预测模型。尤其是,Transformer架构展示了其在捕捉海气年际异常场间复杂时空相互关联和长时间依赖等方面的强大能力,成为当前ENSO预测中的有效工具。本文以作者研发的基于Transformer架构的3D-Geoformer模型为例,重点阐述其在ENSO表征与预测中的独特优势与应用价值,包括从初始场角度利用3D-Geoformer开展关于ENSO实时预测和可预报性等研究,强调这一纯数据驱动的AI模型能够完成传统物理驱动模式所无法实现的任务。同时,也探讨了当前AI技术在ENSO研究中的应用问题与挑战,并进一步阐明AI模型在ENSO实时预测和长期预测中的潜力,为该领域的未来发展方向提供科学指导。 展开更多
关键词 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO) 海气相互作用 人工智能技术 纯数据驱动 Transformer架构 3D-Geoformer模型
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Differences in Summer Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia During Multi-year La Nina Events
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作者 DU Meng-wen feng li-cheng +3 位作者 LIU Fei TAN Jing SUI Cui-juan HAN Xue 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 2025年第3期249-256,共8页
This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During... This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During Y0,monsoon precipitation surpasses climatological values,presenting a tripole spatial pattern,whereas Y1 is characterized by below-normal precipitation with a dipole pattern.In certain regions,the difference in precipitation between Y0 and Y1 reaches up to 3 mm day–1.This work provides further insight into the key tropical ocean regions driving the precipitation distinction,and elucidates their coupling mechanisms with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies.Influenced by the development of earlier ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns,the Tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific(TIO-WP)warming(cooling)is significant during the summer of Y0(Y1).The elevated sea surface temperature(SST)in Y0 supports an anomalous Western North Pacific(WNP)anticyclone via a Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism.This anomalous anticyclone intensifies the suppressed convection over the WNP,which results in increased divergence in the upper-level troposphere over the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions,thereby boosting convection.Simultaneously,the easterly winds associated with the strengthened equatorial latitude SST anomaly(SSTA)gradient and the anomalous anticyclone intensified,transporting a large amount of water vapor to the west.The combined moisture and dynamic conditions support the enhanced precipitation in the South Asian region. 展开更多
关键词 Multi-year La Nina events the TIO-WP SSTA WNP anticyclone South Asian summer monsoon precipitation
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An Observational Analysis of the Relationship Between Wind and the Expansion of the Changjiang River Diluted Water during Summer 被引量:2
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作者 LIU Bao-Chao feng li-cheng 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2012年第5期384-388,共5页
This paper presents an analysis of the impact of wind on the transport of the Changiiang River Diluted Water (CRDW) in August by using the salinity data col- lected on two zonal sections near Cheju-do. Based on the ... This paper presents an analysis of the impact of wind on the transport of the Changiiang River Diluted Water (CRDW) in August by using the salinity data col- lected on two zonal sections near Cheju-do. Based on the climatological mean conditions and four extreme events, the analysis indicates that wind-induced Ekman transport plays an important role in the extension of the CRDW. The strong northeastward Ekman transport induced by southeasterly wind in 1996, 2003, 2004, and 2006 pushes the core of the CRDW to the sea adjacent to Cheju-do. A comparison of the wind variation before observation among these four extreme events indicates that the expan- sion pattern of the CRDW is primarily changed by synop- tic variation with tirnescales of days to weeks, such as during a typhoon. The weak eastward extension of the CRDW in 2004, accompanied with a relatively strong southerly wind, implies that the oceanographic state (e.g., the depth of halocline) may strongly affect the impact of wind on the extension of the CRDW. 展开更多
关键词 Changjiang River diluted water WIND Ekmantransport
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