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融合了BN分析的SITRM方法及其在产业关键技术创新模式选择上的应用研究 被引量:2
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作者 李剑敏 李从东 +2 位作者 汤勇力 胡欣悦 claudio petti 《管理工程学报》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2018年第3期226-233,共8页
将情景规划融合在技术路线图的设计过程中,可以较好解决单一线性预测的技术路线图由于缺乏鲁棒性而在动态不稳定环境下难以实施的问题。针对目前基于情景的技术路线图研究现处于定性化理论探索阶段,以关键技术创新等管理规划为目的的技... 将情景规划融合在技术路线图的设计过程中,可以较好解决单一线性预测的技术路线图由于缺乏鲁棒性而在动态不稳定环境下难以实施的问题。针对目前基于情景的技术路线图研究现处于定性化理论探索阶段,以关键技术创新等管理规划为目的的技术路线图设计缺乏定量化分析方法的决策支持,且基于情景的技术路线图研究大都处于企业层面,鲜有产业层面的分析等问题,提出一种通过在产业层次的情景技术路线图设计中融合贝叶斯网络分析,指导产业关键技术创新模式选择的方法。首先,通过基于情景的产业技术路线图设计框架分析并构建相对应的贝叶斯网络拓扑结构模型,并结合领域专家知识构造体现产业环境及产业目标和关键技术创新模式间的逻辑关系的条件概率表;其次,基于贝叶斯网络概率推理方法,提出了产业关键技术创新模式选择和路径选择等的分析及计算模型;最后,基于广东省LED产业的案例研究对所提方法进行了验证。 展开更多
关键词 产业技术路线图 基于情景的技术路线图 贝叶斯网络 产业技术创新模式 创新路径
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State-of-the-Art Research on Technology Innovation Management in China
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作者 claudio petti 《Frontiers of Business Research in China》 2013年第3期402-432,共31页
The two latest Five-Year Plans of China call for an increasing focus of the whole country on technology-based innovation. Moreover, China's ambition to become an innovation-oriented nation has attracted widespread in... The two latest Five-Year Plans of China call for an increasing focus of the whole country on technology-based innovation. Moreover, China's ambition to become an innovation-oriented nation has attracted widespread international interest and academic studies in technology and innovation management. However by now, there is still not a rigorous amount of the research in this field as regards to China. This paper reports a comprehensive review of the research published between 2002 and 2011 in twelve top technology and innovation management international journals. Overall, a sample of 241 relevant articles in 780 issues is used as the basis for the study. The result is a map of the main research topics, their influence, and the availability of tested empirical data, which traces a state-of-the-art research on technology innovation management in China. Discussion on the map draws avenues for further research and insights for both researchers and policy makers on why, where and how to advance knowledge in the field, with a particular focus on implications for developing cooperation at the enterprise level. 展开更多
关键词 technological innovation technology innovation management China
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