针对降水具有混沌性和随机性,准确进行长期降水预报难度高的问题,提出时变海温多极指数和因子预报意见指数,基于大气环流和海温场构建长期降水组合预报模型,以三峡水库流域为例进行了验证。结果表明:组合预报模型在三峡水库流域1961—2...针对降水具有混沌性和随机性,准确进行长期降水预报难度高的问题,提出时变海温多极指数和因子预报意见指数,基于大气环流和海温场构建长期降水组合预报模型,以三峡水库流域为例进行了验证。结果表明:组合预报模型在三峡水库流域1961—2020年汛期的月降水预报中有较好的适用性,特别在6月和9月降水预报上表现优异;与多因子回归、随机森林数理统计模型和CFSv2、ECMWF system 4动力数值模型相比,该模型更为稳健、预报精度提高显著。展开更多
To improve the performance of the supply chain with one supplier and multiple retailers under deterministic price-sensitive customer demand, an optimal strategy is proposed based on knowledge discovery. First the dece...To improve the performance of the supply chain with one supplier and multiple retailers under deterministic price-sensitive customer demand, an optimal strategy is proposed based on knowledge discovery. First the decentralized system in which the supplier and the retailers are independent, profit-maximizing participants with the supplier acting as a Stackelberg game leader is studied. Numerical examples illustrate the importance of the coordination. The conventional quantity discount mechanism needs to be modified to coordinate the supply chain, so a revenue-sharing contract is proposed to coordinate such supply chain. Lastly, a special decision under certain demand rates is studied. The pricing and replenishment policies can be decided sequentially, which yields much less loss comparing with optimal decision when the demand rates are sufficiently large.展开更多
文摘针对降水具有混沌性和随机性,准确进行长期降水预报难度高的问题,提出时变海温多极指数和因子预报意见指数,基于大气环流和海温场构建长期降水组合预报模型,以三峡水库流域为例进行了验证。结果表明:组合预报模型在三峡水库流域1961—2020年汛期的月降水预报中有较好的适用性,特别在6月和9月降水预报上表现优异;与多因子回归、随机森林数理统计模型和CFSv2、ECMWF system 4动力数值模型相比,该模型更为稳健、预报精度提高显著。
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70471034)the Talent Foundation of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (s0670-082).
文摘To improve the performance of the supply chain with one supplier and multiple retailers under deterministic price-sensitive customer demand, an optimal strategy is proposed based on knowledge discovery. First the decentralized system in which the supplier and the retailers are independent, profit-maximizing participants with the supplier acting as a Stackelberg game leader is studied. Numerical examples illustrate the importance of the coordination. The conventional quantity discount mechanism needs to be modified to coordinate the supply chain, so a revenue-sharing contract is proposed to coordinate such supply chain. Lastly, a special decision under certain demand rates is studied. The pricing and replenishment policies can be decided sequentially, which yields much less loss comparing with optimal decision when the demand rates are sufficiently large.
