Understanding the evolutionary trends and driving factors behind extreme hourly precipitation(EHP)in typical urban agglomerations is crucial for predicting and preventing rapid floods.We collected hourly precipitation...Understanding the evolutionary trends and driving factors behind extreme hourly precipitation(EHP)in typical urban agglomerations is crucial for predicting and preventing rapid floods.We collected hourly precipitation datasets from 31 observation stations in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration(CYA)spanning from 2004 to 2020.Urban and rural observations were dynamically classified based on impervious surface fraction.Linear(Granger)and nonlinear causal methods(convergent cross-mapping and Liang–Kleeman information flow)were used to identify the causal impact mechanisms of large-scale circulation,environment and urbanization on EHP.Moreover,geo-detector further reveals the spatial influence of these factors and their interactions on EHP.Our findings revealed that EHP mainly occurred in the afternoon and at midnight.Also,the frequency and intensity of EHP in the CYA significantly(p≤0.05)increased from 2004 to 2020,especially in urban areas.The increasing rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas.However,the duration of EHP/hourly total precipitation exhibited a significant/nonsignificant decreasing trend with no significant difference between urban and rural areas.Causality tests and geo-detector indicated that EHP was impacted by natural variability and urbanization.Large-scale circulation indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,and Indian Ocean Dipole nonlinearly influenced EHP.Additionally,urban landscape layout,vegetation,and population variation may strengthen EHP by changing environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity.Interactions exist between these factors and influence EHP,although large-scale circulation remains the dominant influence.With global climate warming and rapid urbanization in the CYA,the frequency and intensity of EHP may further amplify in the future.展开更多
定量评估可持续发展目标(Sustainable Development Goals,SDGs)的进展和指标间复杂的相互作用对于监测SDGs的实现进度以及指导政策制定和实施至关重要。以国家可持续发展议程创新示范区(临沧市)为研究区,基于统计、遥感和监测等地球大数...定量评估可持续发展目标(Sustainable Development Goals,SDGs)的进展和指标间复杂的相互作用对于监测SDGs的实现进度以及指导政策制定和实施至关重要。以国家可持续发展议程创新示范区(临沧市)为研究区,基于统计、遥感和监测等地球大数据,在SDGs全球指标框架的基础上,通过实地调研,结合临沧市地域特色和数据获取情况,选取70个SDGs指标构建了评估边疆多民族欠发达地区SDGs进程的指标体系。在此基础上,计算了2015—2020年临沧市16个SDGs得分值和可持续发展综合指数,评价了临沧市SDGs进展状况,提出了临沧市可持续发展面临的关键挑战及解决对策。研究表明,2015—2020年临沧市SDG 6、SDG 7和SDG 13基本保持较高的得分值,其余目标和可持续发展综合指数均呈现增大趋势。在SDGs发展进程方面,16个目标均具有较好的发展进程,SDG 5年均增长率最大,SDG 13基本保持不变;此外,有81%的SDGs指标具有较好的发展进程。该研究可为其他典型示范区推进可持续发展建设提供参考,为推进中国乃至全球欠发达山区可持续发展提供良好借鉴。展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42461012Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects,No.202201AU070064。
文摘Understanding the evolutionary trends and driving factors behind extreme hourly precipitation(EHP)in typical urban agglomerations is crucial for predicting and preventing rapid floods.We collected hourly precipitation datasets from 31 observation stations in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration(CYA)spanning from 2004 to 2020.Urban and rural observations were dynamically classified based on impervious surface fraction.Linear(Granger)and nonlinear causal methods(convergent cross-mapping and Liang–Kleeman information flow)were used to identify the causal impact mechanisms of large-scale circulation,environment and urbanization on EHP.Moreover,geo-detector further reveals the spatial influence of these factors and their interactions on EHP.Our findings revealed that EHP mainly occurred in the afternoon and at midnight.Also,the frequency and intensity of EHP in the CYA significantly(p≤0.05)increased from 2004 to 2020,especially in urban areas.The increasing rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas.However,the duration of EHP/hourly total precipitation exhibited a significant/nonsignificant decreasing trend with no significant difference between urban and rural areas.Causality tests and geo-detector indicated that EHP was impacted by natural variability and urbanization.Large-scale circulation indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,and Indian Ocean Dipole nonlinearly influenced EHP.Additionally,urban landscape layout,vegetation,and population variation may strengthen EHP by changing environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity.Interactions exist between these factors and influence EHP,although large-scale circulation remains the dominant influence.With global climate warming and rapid urbanization in the CYA,the frequency and intensity of EHP may further amplify in the future.
