Modelling land-use/landcover(LULC)change is vital for addressing global environmental and sustainability issues and evaluating various land system scenarios.However,existing geosimulation methodologies for global LULC...Modelling land-use/landcover(LULC)change is vital for addressing global environmental and sustainability issues and evaluating various land system scenarios.However,existing geosimulation methodologies for global LULC change fail to account for spatial distortions caused by the Earth’s curvature and do not consider multiple LULC change processes.Thus,this research study proposes an enhanced spherical geosimulation modelling approach that integrates deep learning(DL)to simulate change of multiple classes of LULC process under the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP)at the global level.Based on the simulation results,the frontiers of urbanization,cropland expansion,and deforestation are indicated to be in developing countries particularly in Asia and Africa.The simulation outputs also reveal 42.5%-63.2%of new urban development would occur on croplands.The proposed modelling approach can serve as a valuable tool for spatial decision-making and environmental policy formulation at the global level.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada[RGPIN-2023-04052].
文摘Modelling land-use/landcover(LULC)change is vital for addressing global environmental and sustainability issues and evaluating various land system scenarios.However,existing geosimulation methodologies for global LULC change fail to account for spatial distortions caused by the Earth’s curvature and do not consider multiple LULC change processes.Thus,this research study proposes an enhanced spherical geosimulation modelling approach that integrates deep learning(DL)to simulate change of multiple classes of LULC process under the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP)at the global level.Based on the simulation results,the frontiers of urbanization,cropland expansion,and deforestation are indicated to be in developing countries particularly in Asia and Africa.The simulation outputs also reveal 42.5%-63.2%of new urban development would occur on croplands.The proposed modelling approach can serve as a valuable tool for spatial decision-making and environmental policy formulation at the global level.
