Public involvement in Ebola Virus Disease(EVD)prevention efforts is key to reducing disease outbreaks.Targeted education through practical health information to particular groups and sub-populations is crucial to cont...Public involvement in Ebola Virus Disease(EVD)prevention efforts is key to reducing disease outbreaks.Targeted education through practical health information to particular groups and sub-populations is crucial to controlling the disease.In this paper,we study the dynamics of Ebola virus disease in the presence of public health education with the aim of assessing the role of behavior change induced by health education to the dynamics of an outbreak.The power of behavior change is evident in two outbreaks of EVD that took place in Sudan only 3 years apart.The first occurrence was the first documented outbreak of EVD and produced a significant number of infections.The second outbreak produced far fewer cases,presumably because the population in the region learned from the first outbreak.We derive a system of ordinary differential equations to model these two contrasting behaviors.Since the population in Sudan learned from the first outbreak of EVD and changed their behavior prior to the second outbreak,we use data from these two instances of EVD to estimate parameters relevant to two contrasting behaviors.We then simulate a future outbreak of EVD in Sudan using our model that contains two susceptible populations,one being more informed about EVD.Our finding show how a more educated population results in fewer cases of EVD and highlights the importance of ongoing public health education.展开更多
The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to explore the impact of government mandates on movement restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions on a novel infection,and we investigate these strategies in earl...The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to explore the impact of government mandates on movement restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions on a novel infection,and we investigate these strategies in early-stage outbreak dynamics.The rate of disease spread in South Africa varied over time as individuals changed behavior in response to the ongoing pandemic and to changing government policies.Using a system of ordinary differential equations,we model the outbreak in the province of Gauteng,assuming that several parameters vary over time.Analyzing data from the time period before vaccination gives the approximate dates of parameter changes,and those dates are linked to government policies.Unknown parameters are then estimated from available case data and used to assess the impact of each policy.Looking forward in time,possible scenarios give projections involving the implementation of two different vaccines at varying times.Our results quantify the impact of different government policies and demonstrate how vaccinations can alter infection spread.展开更多
基金This research was conducted as part of the Masamu Advanced Study Institute(MASI),which is funded by NSF grant number 1343651.
文摘Public involvement in Ebola Virus Disease(EVD)prevention efforts is key to reducing disease outbreaks.Targeted education through practical health information to particular groups and sub-populations is crucial to controlling the disease.In this paper,we study the dynamics of Ebola virus disease in the presence of public health education with the aim of assessing the role of behavior change induced by health education to the dynamics of an outbreak.The power of behavior change is evident in two outbreaks of EVD that took place in Sudan only 3 years apart.The first occurrence was the first documented outbreak of EVD and produced a significant number of infections.The second outbreak produced far fewer cases,presumably because the population in the region learned from the first outbreak.We derive a system of ordinary differential equations to model these two contrasting behaviors.Since the population in Sudan learned from the first outbreak of EVD and changed their behavior prior to the second outbreak,we use data from these two instances of EVD to estimate parameters relevant to two contrasting behaviors.We then simulate a future outbreak of EVD in Sudan using our model that contains two susceptible populations,one being more informed about EVD.Our finding show how a more educated population results in fewer cases of EVD and highlights the importance of ongoing public health education.
基金This research was funded in part by the National Science Foundation,grant number 134651,to the MASAMU Advanced Study Institute.FBAwas supported by the National Science Foundation under grant number DMS 2028297CJEwas supported by the AMS-Simons Travel Grants,which are administered by the American Mathematical Society with support from the Simons Foundation.FC was supported by the University of Johanneburg URC Grant。
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to explore the impact of government mandates on movement restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions on a novel infection,and we investigate these strategies in early-stage outbreak dynamics.The rate of disease spread in South Africa varied over time as individuals changed behavior in response to the ongoing pandemic and to changing government policies.Using a system of ordinary differential equations,we model the outbreak in the province of Gauteng,assuming that several parameters vary over time.Analyzing data from the time period before vaccination gives the approximate dates of parameter changes,and those dates are linked to government policies.Unknown parameters are then estimated from available case data and used to assess the impact of each policy.Looking forward in time,possible scenarios give projections involving the implementation of two different vaccines at varying times.Our results quantify the impact of different government policies and demonstrate how vaccinations can alter infection spread.
