Background:Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023,causing a large number of hospitalizations.While influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,the rel...Background:Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023,causing a large number of hospitalizations.While influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in December 2022 may have contributed to the spread of acute respiratory infections in winter 2022/2023.Methods:Using a mathematical model incorporating influenza activity as measured by influenza-like illness(ILI)data for northern and southern regions of China,we reconstructed the seasonal influenza incidence from October 2015 to September 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.Using this trained model,we predicted influenza activities in northern and southern China from March to September 2023.Results:We estimated the effective reproduction number Re as 1.08[95%confidence interval(CI):0.51,1.65]in northern China and 1.10(95%CI:0.55,1.67)in southern China at the start of the 2022-2023 influenza season.We estimated the infection attack rate of this influenza wave as 18.51%(95%CI:0.00%,37.78%)in northern China and 28.30%(95%CI:14.77%,41.82%)in southern China.Conclusions:The 2023 spring wave of seasonal influenza in China spread until July 2023 and infected a substantial number of people.展开更多
Summary What is already known about this topic?People are likely to engage in collective behaviors online during extreme events,such as the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)crisis,to express awareness,take action,and...Summary What is already known about this topic?People are likely to engage in collective behaviors online during extreme events,such as the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)crisis,to express awareness,take action,and work through concerns.展开更多
Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in China.Risk estimation is essential for cities...Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in China.Risk estimation is essential for cities to conduct before relaxing border control measures.Methods:Informed by the daily number of passengers traveling between 367 prefectures(cities)in China,this study used a stochastic metapopulation model parameterized with COVID-19 epidemic characteristics to estimate the importation and exportation risks.Results:Under the transmission scenario(R0=5.49),this study estimated the cumulative case incidence of Changchun City,Jilin Province as 3,233(95%confidence interval:1,480,4,986)before a lockdown on March 14,2022,which is close to the 3,168 cases reported in real life by March 16,2022.In a total of 367 prefectures(cities),127(35%)had high exportation risks according to the simulation and could transmit the disease to 50%of all other regions within a period from 17 to 94 days.The average time until a new infection arrives in a location in 1 of the 367 prefectures(cities)ranged from 26 to 101 days.Conclusions:Estimating COVID-19 importation and exportation risks is necessary for preparedness,prevention,and control measures of COVID-19—especially when new variants emerge.展开更多
Introduction:The ease of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)non-pharmacological interventions and the increased susceptibility during the past COVID-19 pandemic could be a precursor for the resurgence of influenza,pote...Introduction:The ease of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)non-pharmacological interventions and the increased susceptibility during the past COVID-19 pandemic could be a precursor for the resurgence of influenza,potentially leading to a severe outbreak in the winter of 2022 and future seasons.The recent increased availability of data on Electronic Health Records(EHR)in public health systems,offers new opportunities to monitor individuals to mitigate outbreaks.Methods:We introduced a new methodology to rank individuals for surveillance in temporal networks,which was more practical than the static networks.By targeting previously infected nodes,this method used readily available EHR data instead of the contactnetwork structure.Results:We validated this method qualitatively in a real-world cohort study and evaluated our approach quantitatively by comparing it to other surveillance methods on three temporal and empirical networks.We found that,despite not explicitly exploiting the contacts’network structure,it remained the best or close to the best strategy.We related the performance of the method to the public health goals,the reproduction number of the disease,and the underlying temporal-network structure(e.g.,burstiness).Discussion:The proposed strategy of using historical records for sentinel surveillance selection can be taken as a practical and robust alternative without the knowledge of individual contact behaviors for public health policymakers.展开更多
As we pass the first anniversary of the World Health Organization’s(WHO)declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern(1),we look back at the impact of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in 2020 and...As we pass the first anniversary of the World Health Organization’s(WHO)declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern(1),we look back at the impact of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in 2020 and the prospects for the pandemic in 2021.展开更多
基金Supported by grants from the AIR@InnoHK Programme of the Innovation and Technology Commission of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Theme-based Research Scheme(T11-712/19-N)of the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong SAR Government.
文摘Background:Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023,causing a large number of hospitalizations.While influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in December 2022 may have contributed to the spread of acute respiratory infections in winter 2022/2023.Methods:Using a mathematical model incorporating influenza activity as measured by influenza-like illness(ILI)data for northern and southern regions of China,we reconstructed the seasonal influenza incidence from October 2015 to September 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.Using this trained model,we predicted influenza activities in northern and southern China from March to September 2023.Results:We estimated the effective reproduction number Re as 1.08[95%confidence interval(CI):0.51,1.65]in northern China and 1.10(95%CI:0.55,1.67)in southern China at the start of the 2022-2023 influenza season.We estimated the infection attack rate of this influenza wave as 18.51%(95%CI:0.00%,37.78%)in northern China and 28.30%(95%CI:14.77%,41.82%)in southern China.Conclusions:The 2023 spring wave of seasonal influenza in China spread until July 2023 and infected a substantial number of people.
文摘Summary What is already known about this topic?People are likely to engage in collective behaviors online during extreme events,such as the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)crisis,to express awareness,take action,and work through concerns.
基金Supported by AIR@InnoHK programme from The Innovation and Technology Commission of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,National Natural Science Foundation of China(72104208)JSPS KAKENHI(JP21H04595)National Nature Science Foundation of China(72025405,91846301,72088101,and 71790615).
文摘Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in China.Risk estimation is essential for cities to conduct before relaxing border control measures.Methods:Informed by the daily number of passengers traveling between 367 prefectures(cities)in China,this study used a stochastic metapopulation model parameterized with COVID-19 epidemic characteristics to estimate the importation and exportation risks.Results:Under the transmission scenario(R0=5.49),this study estimated the cumulative case incidence of Changchun City,Jilin Province as 3,233(95%confidence interval:1,480,4,986)before a lockdown on March 14,2022,which is close to the 3,168 cases reported in real life by March 16,2022.In a total of 367 prefectures(cities),127(35%)had high exportation risks according to the simulation and could transmit the disease to 50%of all other regions within a period from 17 to 94 days.The average time until a new infection arrives in a location in 1 of the 367 prefectures(cities)ranged from 26 to 101 days.Conclusions:Estimating COVID-19 importation and exportation risks is necessary for preparedness,prevention,and control measures of COVID-19—especially when new variants emerge.
基金Supported by Key Projects of Intergovernmental International Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation of National Key R&D Programs(No.2022YFE0112300)AIR@InnoHK administered by Innovation and Technology Commission of the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong SAR Government。
文摘Introduction:The ease of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)non-pharmacological interventions and the increased susceptibility during the past COVID-19 pandemic could be a precursor for the resurgence of influenza,potentially leading to a severe outbreak in the winter of 2022 and future seasons.The recent increased availability of data on Electronic Health Records(EHR)in public health systems,offers new opportunities to monitor individuals to mitigate outbreaks.Methods:We introduced a new methodology to rank individuals for surveillance in temporal networks,which was more practical than the static networks.By targeting previously infected nodes,this method used readily available EHR data instead of the contactnetwork structure.Results:We validated this method qualitatively in a real-world cohort study and evaluated our approach quantitatively by comparing it to other surveillance methods on three temporal and empirical networks.We found that,despite not explicitly exploiting the contacts’network structure,it remained the best or close to the best strategy.We related the performance of the method to the public health goals,the reproduction number of the disease,and the underlying temporal-network structure(e.g.,burstiness).Discussion:The proposed strategy of using historical records for sentinel surveillance selection can be taken as a practical and robust alternative without the knowledge of individual contact behaviors for public health policymakers.
文摘As we pass the first anniversary of the World Health Organization’s(WHO)declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern(1),we look back at the impact of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in 2020 and the prospects for the pandemic in 2021.
