China＇s economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications ...China＇s economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications of China ＇s growth for other countries have been relatively neglected. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. The paper first presents some facts on China＇s role in the world economy, and then measures the impact of China＇s growth on growth in the rest of the world in both the short term and the long term. Short-run estimates based on vector autoregression and error correction models suggest that spillover effects of China＇s growth have increased in recent decades, Long- term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.展开更多
文摘China＇s economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications of China ＇s growth for other countries have been relatively neglected. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. The paper first presents some facts on China＇s role in the world economy, and then measures the impact of China＇s growth on growth in the rest of the world in both the short term and the long term. Short-run estimates based on vector autoregression and error correction models suggest that spillover effects of China＇s growth have increased in recent decades, Long- term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.
