As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia,Indo-nesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices arou...As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia,Indo-nesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation.This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition(SDT)theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility,marriage and family change in Indonesia.Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998,we found emerging demographic fea-tures typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition.These include fertility below replacement in some regions;increasing age at first marriage,non-marriage,and divorce rates;and growing diversity in household/family forms.As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically,culturally,and demographically heterogeneous,these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner.Further,these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multi-ple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change per-taining to marriage and the family.We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage,fertility,and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature.Emerging ideational change embodying individual-ism,secularism,and post-materialism-originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe-can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions.As a demographic framework,the SDT theory is an important and use-ful starting point.But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition,as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.展开更多
This paper contributes to the first calculation of marital status transition probabilities in Indonesia using the Indonesian Family Life Survey(IFLS),a longitudinal survey conducted since 1993.The sample consists of i...This paper contributes to the first calculation of marital status transition probabilities in Indonesia using the Indonesian Family Life Survey(IFLS),a longitudinal survey conducted since 1993.The sample consists of individuals aged 15 and over in Wave-4(2007)who were re-interviewed in Wave-5(2014).The study calculates transition probabilities for five marital status changes:from never married to married,married to widowed,married to divorced,widowed to remarried,and divorced to remarried.The analysis is conducted based on age,education,geography(urban-rural residence and islands),and key social markers(ethnicity and religion),with sex as a control variable across all dimensions.Among others,it concludes that the transition probability from never married to married is consistently higher among females than males,regardless of education,geography,and social markers,with an exception among the group—aged 35 years old and over.Once married,most individuals remain married,though some experience a shift in marital status,transitioning to either widowed or divorced.The transition probability from married to widowed increases with age,making it significantly more common than divorce among individuals aged 50 years and over.This pattern—that transition probability is higher to widowed than to divorced-is consistent across both sexes,all education levels,geography,and social markers.After becoming widowed or divorced,some individuals remarry.However,the likelihood of remarrying differs importantly depending on the previous marital status,with the transition probability from divorced to remarried consistently higher than from widowed to remarried,irrespective of sex,age,education,geography,and social markers.展开更多
文摘As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia,Indo-nesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation.This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition(SDT)theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility,marriage and family change in Indonesia.Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998,we found emerging demographic fea-tures typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition.These include fertility below replacement in some regions;increasing age at first marriage,non-marriage,and divorce rates;and growing diversity in household/family forms.As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically,culturally,and demographically heterogeneous,these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner.Further,these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multi-ple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change per-taining to marriage and the family.We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage,fertility,and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature.Emerging ideational change embodying individual-ism,secularism,and post-materialism-originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe-can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions.As a demographic framework,the SDT theory is an important and use-ful starting point.But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition,as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.
基金supported by the MOE Tier-2 grant from Singapore(MOE-T2EP40222-0002).
文摘This paper contributes to the first calculation of marital status transition probabilities in Indonesia using the Indonesian Family Life Survey(IFLS),a longitudinal survey conducted since 1993.The sample consists of individuals aged 15 and over in Wave-4(2007)who were re-interviewed in Wave-5(2014).The study calculates transition probabilities for five marital status changes:from never married to married,married to widowed,married to divorced,widowed to remarried,and divorced to remarried.The analysis is conducted based on age,education,geography(urban-rural residence and islands),and key social markers(ethnicity and religion),with sex as a control variable across all dimensions.Among others,it concludes that the transition probability from never married to married is consistently higher among females than males,regardless of education,geography,and social markers,with an exception among the group—aged 35 years old and over.Once married,most individuals remain married,though some experience a shift in marital status,transitioning to either widowed or divorced.The transition probability from married to widowed increases with age,making it significantly more common than divorce among individuals aged 50 years and over.This pattern—that transition probability is higher to widowed than to divorced-is consistent across both sexes,all education levels,geography,and social markers.After becoming widowed or divorced,some individuals remarry.However,the likelihood of remarrying differs importantly depending on the previous marital status,with the transition probability from divorced to remarried consistently higher than from widowed to remarried,irrespective of sex,age,education,geography,and social markers.
