This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9...This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.The accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects:real-time observations,TC dynamical model forecast guidance,and techniques and methods used by forecasters.The rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years(2018–2021)in all three aspects.This review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.The companion paper(Part II)summarizes the advance from operational centers.The dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity forecasts.Here,we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance,including HWRF,HMON,COAMPS-TC,Met Office Regional Model,CMA-TYM,and newly developed HAFS.The performance of global dynamical models,including NOAA's GFS,Met Office Global Model(MOGM),JMA's GSM,and IFS(ECMWF),has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation systems.Recent challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed.展开更多
The HWRF-POM-TC coupled model is run operationally at India Meteorological Department(IMD).This study is first attempt to assess the IMD’s operational HWRF-POM-TC(Atmosphere-Ocean)coupled model forecast performance o...The HWRF-POM-TC coupled model is run operationally at India Meteorological Department(IMD).This study is first attempt to assess the IMD’s operational HWRF-POM-TC(Atmosphere-Ocean)coupled model forecast performance over North Indian Ocean(NIO).The two cyclonic storms one each in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal were examined.Among them,VSCS LUBAN formed over Arabian Sea(AS)and was followed by the formation of VSCS TITLI over Bay of Bengal(Bo B).It constituted a rare case whereby two VSCS have formed in the north Indian Ocean(NIO)simultaneously.The HWRF-POM-TC modeling system,which was developed at National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)based on Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model(NMM)dynamic core,was customized for NIO conditions.For the two storms,VSCS LUBAN&VSCS TITLI,28 and 15 consecutive 6-hourly HWRF model runs were performed.The HWRF-POM-TC coupled model showed great skill in forecasting of Track and Intensity for examined cyclones.The result shows that the model predicted the intensification and landfall of VSCS Luban&Titli in agreement with the best track data as made available by Cyclone Warning Division(CWD),India Meteorological Department which is also recognized as Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)by WMO for NIO.展开更多
文摘This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.The accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects:real-time observations,TC dynamical model forecast guidance,and techniques and methods used by forecasters.The rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years(2018–2021)in all three aspects.This review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.The companion paper(Part II)summarizes the advance from operational centers.The dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity forecasts.Here,we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance,including HWRF,HMON,COAMPS-TC,Met Office Regional Model,CMA-TYM,and newly developed HAFS.The performance of global dynamical models,including NOAA's GFS,Met Office Global Model(MOGM),JMA's GSM,and IFS(ECMWF),has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation systems.Recent challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed.
基金K Banerjee Center for Atmospheric and Ocean Science(KBCAOS)University of Allahabad for the support to complete this study
文摘The HWRF-POM-TC coupled model is run operationally at India Meteorological Department(IMD).This study is first attempt to assess the IMD’s operational HWRF-POM-TC(Atmosphere-Ocean)coupled model forecast performance over North Indian Ocean(NIO).The two cyclonic storms one each in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal were examined.Among them,VSCS LUBAN formed over Arabian Sea(AS)and was followed by the formation of VSCS TITLI over Bay of Bengal(Bo B).It constituted a rare case whereby two VSCS have formed in the north Indian Ocean(NIO)simultaneously.The HWRF-POM-TC modeling system,which was developed at National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)based on Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model(NMM)dynamic core,was customized for NIO conditions.For the two storms,VSCS LUBAN&VSCS TITLI,28 and 15 consecutive 6-hourly HWRF model runs were performed.The HWRF-POM-TC coupled model showed great skill in forecasting of Track and Intensity for examined cyclones.The result shows that the model predicted the intensification and landfall of VSCS Luban&Titli in agreement with the best track data as made available by Cyclone Warning Division(CWD),India Meteorological Department which is also recognized as Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)by WMO for NIO.
