This review paper focuses on the application of the Granger causality technique to the study of the causes of recent global warming (a case of climatic attribution). A concise but comprehensive review is performed and...This review paper focuses on the application of the Granger causality technique to the study of the causes of recent global warming (a case of climatic attribution). A concise but comprehensive review is performed and particular attention is paid to the direct role of anthropogenic and natural forcings, and to the influence of patterns of natural variability. By analyzing both in-sample and out-of-sample results, clear evidences are obtained (e.g., the major role of greenhousegases radiative forcing in driving temperature, a recent causal decoupling between solar irradiance and temperature itself) together with interesting prospects of further research.展开更多
One of the most important problems of clustering is to define the number of classes. In fact, it is not easy to find an appropriate method to measure whether the cluster configuration is acceptable or not. In this pap...One of the most important problems of clustering is to define the number of classes. In fact, it is not easy to find an appropriate method to measure whether the cluster configuration is acceptable or not. In this paper we propose a possible and non-automatic solution considering different criteria of clustering and comparing their results. In this way robust structures of an analyzed dataset can be often caught （or established） and an optimal cluster configuration, which presents a meaningful association, may be defined. In particular, we also focus on the variables which may be used in cluster analysis. In fact, variables which contain little clustering information can cause misleading and not-robustness results. Therefore, three algorithms are employed in this study： K-means partitioning methods, Partitioning Around Medoids （PAM） and the Heuristic Identification of Noisy Variables （HINoV）. The results are compared with robust methods ones.展开更多
文摘This review paper focuses on the application of the Granger causality technique to the study of the causes of recent global warming (a case of climatic attribution). A concise but comprehensive review is performed and particular attention is paid to the direct role of anthropogenic and natural forcings, and to the influence of patterns of natural variability. By analyzing both in-sample and out-of-sample results, clear evidences are obtained (e.g., the major role of greenhousegases radiative forcing in driving temperature, a recent causal decoupling between solar irradiance and temperature itself) together with interesting prospects of further research.
文摘One of the most important problems of clustering is to define the number of classes. In fact, it is not easy to find an appropriate method to measure whether the cluster configuration is acceptable or not. In this paper we propose a possible and non-automatic solution considering different criteria of clustering and comparing their results. In this way robust structures of an analyzed dataset can be often caught （or established） and an optimal cluster configuration, which presents a meaningful association, may be defined. In particular, we also focus on the variables which may be used in cluster analysis. In fact, variables which contain little clustering information can cause misleading and not-robustness results. Therefore, three algorithms are employed in this study： K-means partitioning methods, Partitioning Around Medoids （PAM） and the Heuristic Identification of Noisy Variables （HINoV）. The results are compared with robust methods ones.
