The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin(MRB).Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed s...The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin(MRB).Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970 s,climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21 st century over the Western North Pacific,which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB.Yet,how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear.By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized,coupled ocean-atmospheric model,shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081–2100 compared with 1981–2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario,suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity.The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development,disrupt food supply,and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond.展开更多
Mountain glaciers are indispensable suppliers of freshwater for human sustenance in extensive cold and arid areas of the world[1-3].However,due to pronounced climate change over the last decades,the vast majority of t...Mountain glaciers are indispensable suppliers of freshwater for human sustenance in extensive cold and arid areas of the world[1-3].However,due to pronounced climate change over the last decades,the vast majority of the world’s mountains have seen a rapid shrinking of glaciers with profound impacts on streamflow regimes of the mountains themselves,as well as downstream areas[4-6].展开更多
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20060401)the China Scholarship Council+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(91537210)the Swedish STINT(CH2015-6226)the Swedish VR(2017-03780).
文摘The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin(MRB).Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970 s,climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21 st century over the Western North Pacific,which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB.Yet,how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear.By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized,coupled ocean-atmospheric model,shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081–2100 compared with 1981–2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario,suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity.The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development,disrupt food supply,and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41690145 and 41671058)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20060401)the National Foundation of China Scholarship Council(201906040104)。
文摘Mountain glaciers are indispensable suppliers of freshwater for human sustenance in extensive cold and arid areas of the world[1-3].However,due to pronounced climate change over the last decades,the vast majority of the world’s mountains have seen a rapid shrinking of glaciers with profound impacts on streamflow regimes of the mountains themselves,as well as downstream areas[4-6].
