Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) events can take a catastrophic toll on human life, the environment,and the economy. This article first presents the beginnings of a framework for the analysis of ...Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) events can take a catastrophic toll on human life, the environment,and the economy. This article first presents the beginnings of a framework for the analysis of behavioral aspects of population mobility in the aftermath of a CBRN event in terms of four phases:quarantine, evacuation, resettlement, and return.Population movements are often omitted from economic consequence analyses because of the difculty of conceptualizing and estimating them. Through a synthesis of the literature in the context of our analytical framework, we provide estimates of the drivers of important dimensions of population mobility relating to compliance, geography, and timing for each major threat type. We also provide an assessment of error bounds on these estimates. Our findings indicate that omission of various dimensions of population mobility can lead to the underestimation of economic consequences of CBRN events by one or two orders of magnitude. The analysis is intended to point out the relative sensitivities of bottom-line economic impacts to the various population mobility dimensions, so as to guide researchers undertaking this estimation and to help prioritize future research on reducing uncertainties in the direction of drivers that are the most impactful.展开更多
Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral...Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public.We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects.We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case study.We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context.We found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results.The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.展开更多
Modeling the economic consequences of disasters has reached a high level of maturity and accuracy in recent years. Methods for providing reasonably accurate rapid estimates of economic losses, however, are still limit...Modeling the economic consequences of disasters has reached a high level of maturity and accuracy in recent years. Methods for providing reasonably accurate rapid estimates of economic losses, however, are still limited. This article presents the case for “reduced-form” models for rapid economic consequence estimation for disasters, and specifies and statistically estimates a regression equation for property damage from significant U.S. earthquakes. Explanatory variables are of two categories:(1) hazard-related variables pertaining to earthquake characteristics;and(2) exposure-related variables pertaining to socioeconomic conditions. Comparisons to other available earthquake damage estimates indicate that our Reduced-Form Model yields reasonably good results, including several statistically significant variables that are consistent with a priori hypotheses. The article concludes with a discussion of how the research can be enhanced through the collection of data on additional variables, and of the potential for the extension of the reduced-form modeling approach to other hazard types.展开更多
Most policy analyses of both short-term and long-term disasters focus on aggregate impacts of their costs and the benefits of policy remedies. Distributional considerations relating to the costs of these disasters and...Most policy analyses of both short-term and long-term disasters focus on aggregate impacts of their costs and the benefits of policy remedies. Distributional considerations relating to the costs of these disasters and the benefits of their risk management, however, are very important in many cases. This article examines two broad categories of cases in terms of distributional considerations. The first category is where transboundary considerations strongly affect risk governance, as in the case of climate change. The second relates to ordinary, short-term disasters, which include fewer, but still important, transboundary issues. Climate change policy requires information regarding the distribution of impacts and policy responses across countries because it is a global problem.Conventional disasters involve transboundary considerations much less frequently, so the attention typically shifts to the distribution of benefits and costs within a jurisdiction. In both cases distributional information is needed to evaluate the equity of policies and to provide information for public participation in the policy process. This article offers modeling and policy approaches to address these issues.展开更多
基金funded by the U.S.Defense Threat Reduction Agency(DTRA)under contract number CWMD2101-001.
文摘Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) events can take a catastrophic toll on human life, the environment,and the economy. This article first presents the beginnings of a framework for the analysis of behavioral aspects of population mobility in the aftermath of a CBRN event in terms of four phases:quarantine, evacuation, resettlement, and return.Population movements are often omitted from economic consequence analyses because of the difculty of conceptualizing and estimating them. Through a synthesis of the literature in the context of our analytical framework, we provide estimates of the drivers of important dimensions of population mobility relating to compliance, geography, and timing for each major threat type. We also provide an assessment of error bounds on these estimates. Our findings indicate that omission of various dimensions of population mobility can lead to the underestimation of economic consequences of CBRN events by one or two orders of magnitude. The analysis is intended to point out the relative sensitivities of bottom-line economic impacts to the various population mobility dimensions, so as to guide researchers undertaking this estimation and to help prioritize future research on reducing uncertainties in the direction of drivers that are the most impactful.
基金funded by the NASA Disasters Program grant#NH18ZDA001N001N.
文摘Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public.We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects.We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case study.We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context.We found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results.The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.
文摘Modeling the economic consequences of disasters has reached a high level of maturity and accuracy in recent years. Methods for providing reasonably accurate rapid estimates of economic losses, however, are still limited. This article presents the case for “reduced-form” models for rapid economic consequence estimation for disasters, and specifies and statistically estimates a regression equation for property damage from significant U.S. earthquakes. Explanatory variables are of two categories:(1) hazard-related variables pertaining to earthquake characteristics;and(2) exposure-related variables pertaining to socioeconomic conditions. Comparisons to other available earthquake damage estimates indicate that our Reduced-Form Model yields reasonably good results, including several statistically significant variables that are consistent with a priori hypotheses. The article concludes with a discussion of how the research can be enhanced through the collection of data on additional variables, and of the potential for the extension of the reduced-form modeling approach to other hazard types.
文摘Most policy analyses of both short-term and long-term disasters focus on aggregate impacts of their costs and the benefits of policy remedies. Distributional considerations relating to the costs of these disasters and the benefits of their risk management, however, are very important in many cases. This article examines two broad categories of cases in terms of distributional considerations. The first category is where transboundary considerations strongly affect risk governance, as in the case of climate change. The second relates to ordinary, short-term disasters, which include fewer, but still important, transboundary issues. Climate change policy requires information regarding the distribution of impacts and policy responses across countries because it is a global problem.Conventional disasters involve transboundary considerations much less frequently, so the attention typically shifts to the distribution of benefits and costs within a jurisdiction. In both cases distributional information is needed to evaluate the equity of policies and to provide information for public participation in the policy process. This article offers modeling and policy approaches to address these issues.
