With the increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events,particularly over the monsoon regions,the highly dense populations are more vulnerable[1].Research initiatives on observation,modeling,and prediction of monsoon h...With the increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events,particularly over the monsoon regions,the highly dense populations are more vulnerable[1].Research initiatives on observation,modeling,and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall have been promoted actively by World Weather Research Programme's(WWRP)Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research(WGTMR)of the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)since 2010.Series of monsoon-heavy-rainfall workshops were held in Beijing(2011),Petaling Jaya(2012),and New Delhi(2015)to benefit scientists worldwide and forecasters from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.An international Research and Development Project,namely,the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)[2]was established in 2013 to coordinate field campaign experiments and to conduct scientific research on presummer(April-June)heavy rainfall processes in southern China.展开更多
The "WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(TLFDP)" was started in May 2010 in conjunction with the start of the Shanghai World Expo 2010. The project was successful in terms of assisting the lo...The "WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(TLFDP)" was started in May 2010 in conjunction with the start of the Shanghai World Expo 2010. The project was successful in terms of assisting the local forecasters in providing an efficient tropical cyclone(TC) forecast service for World Expo 2010, demonstrating the performance of the most up-to-date techniques in TC forecasting, and enhancing the ability of forecasters to effectively use products based on advanced TC forecasting techniques. The first phase was completed in December 2012 and the second phase was completed in December 2015. The third phase(TLFDP-III) started in 2016.During its first(2010-2012) and second(2013-2015) phases, TLFDP collected real-time TC forecast products from 15 Typhoon Forecast Product Providers(TFPPs). The products include deterministic track and intensity forecasts, ensemble track and intensity forecasts, deterministic wind radii forecasts, wind probability forecasts, and gridded model outputs. The products were disseminated through the project's website and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center.TLFDP has made significant progress in TC forecast verification, including setting up the tools for both realtime and post-season TC forecast verification, developing and integrating several new verification techniques, carrying out a survey on the operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, and contributing to the WMO document "Verification of tropical cyclone forecasts". The post-season forecast verification was reported to the Session of the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since 2013. New consensus methods for TC track and intensity forecasts were also proposed either based on Ensemble Prediction Systems(EPSs) products or multiple deterministic NWP model products. Two training workshops on TC forecasting were organized by the TLFDP and held in Shanghai, China, in May 2010 and June 2012, respectively, and seven research fellowship projects were implemented as jointly supported by the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Hong Kong Observatory.In its third phase(TLFDP-III, 2016-2018), the project will continue its effort on demonstration and evaluation of the newly developed forecasting techniques for TCs, and developing and documenting advanced guidance for the verification of TC forecasts, with special attention to TC intensity and precipitation.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1507400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41775050)+1 种基金the Basic Research&Operation Funding of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2017Z006)supported by the UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘With the increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events,particularly over the monsoon regions,the highly dense populations are more vulnerable[1].Research initiatives on observation,modeling,and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall have been promoted actively by World Weather Research Programme's(WWRP)Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research(WGTMR)of the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)since 2010.Series of monsoon-heavy-rainfall workshops were held in Beijing(2011),Petaling Jaya(2012),and New Delhi(2015)to benefit scientists worldwide and forecasters from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.An international Research and Development Project,namely,the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)[2]was established in 2013 to coordinate field campaign experiments and to conduct scientific research on presummer(April-June)heavy rainfall processes in southern China.
基金supported by WMO,CMA,ECRMC/CMA,STI/CMA,NCAR,HKO,RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center/WMO and all TFPPsProject activities are WMO,UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee,STI/CMA,ECRMC/CMA,HKO+2 种基金National Basic Research Program of China 2015CB452806,2009CB421500National Natural Science Foundation of China 40921160381Projects for Public Welfare(Meteorology)of China GYHY201506007,GYHY201406010,GYHY201006008
文摘The "WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(TLFDP)" was started in May 2010 in conjunction with the start of the Shanghai World Expo 2010. The project was successful in terms of assisting the local forecasters in providing an efficient tropical cyclone(TC) forecast service for World Expo 2010, demonstrating the performance of the most up-to-date techniques in TC forecasting, and enhancing the ability of forecasters to effectively use products based on advanced TC forecasting techniques. The first phase was completed in December 2012 and the second phase was completed in December 2015. The third phase(TLFDP-III) started in 2016.During its first(2010-2012) and second(2013-2015) phases, TLFDP collected real-time TC forecast products from 15 Typhoon Forecast Product Providers(TFPPs). The products include deterministic track and intensity forecasts, ensemble track and intensity forecasts, deterministic wind radii forecasts, wind probability forecasts, and gridded model outputs. The products were disseminated through the project's website and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center.TLFDP has made significant progress in TC forecast verification, including setting up the tools for both realtime and post-season TC forecast verification, developing and integrating several new verification techniques, carrying out a survey on the operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, and contributing to the WMO document "Verification of tropical cyclone forecasts". The post-season forecast verification was reported to the Session of the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since 2013. New consensus methods for TC track and intensity forecasts were also proposed either based on Ensemble Prediction Systems(EPSs) products or multiple deterministic NWP model products. Two training workshops on TC forecasting were organized by the TLFDP and held in Shanghai, China, in May 2010 and June 2012, respectively, and seven research fellowship projects were implemented as jointly supported by the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Hong Kong Observatory.In its third phase(TLFDP-III, 2016-2018), the project will continue its effort on demonstration and evaluation of the newly developed forecasting techniques for TCs, and developing and documenting advanced guidance for the verification of TC forecasts, with special attention to TC intensity and precipitation.
