摘要
本文利用 1 995— 2 0 0 2年我国 1 4城市的中房住宅价格指数与宏观经济基本面相关变量的平行数据 ,运用混合样本回归以及添加城市、年度哑变量等分析方法 ,对住宅价格与经济基本面的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明 ,1 4城市经济基本面的当前信息或历史信息都可以部分解释住宅价格水平或者变化率 ,我国住宅市场并不符合有效市场假说。经济基本面对住宅价格水平的解释模型存在着显著的城市影响特征 ,1 998年后经济基本面对住宅价格的解释能力发生了显著的变化 ,且这种变化在 2 0 0 1— 2 0 0 2年间尤其明显。近年来各城市住宅价格的增长已经无法很好地用经济基本面和住宅价格的历史信息来解释 ,必须引起政府和行业的足够重视。
Using the Panel Data of housing prices and economic fundamentals of 14 cities for 1995—2002, with the Pooled Least Squares and Dummy Variable Regression Model, this paper investigates the city-level interactions of housing prices and economic fundamentals in China. It reveals that, during all the period, past and current information of economic fundamentals could partially explain the level or percentage change rate of housing prices and the city-level housing market in China is not in accordance with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Special effects of cities do exist in the reduced form composed by the level of the variables, and special effects of years are significant in 1998 and later on, especially for 2001—2002. The growth of housing prices could not be well explained by past information of economic fundaments and housing prices in recent years which may need the policy makers and practitioners pay enough attention to.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第6期78-86,共9页
Economic Research Journal
