摘要
该文以小波诊断技术为基础,对建国以来江苏省粮食产量变化进行了多时间尺度的分析。研究结果表明,建国以来江苏省粮食产量变化具有明显的5年、13年和25年的特征时间尺度和相应的周期性变化特征,并且特征时间尺度有逐步增加的趋势,即江苏省的粮食产量变化渐趋稳定;此外,根据小波方差分析发现江苏省粮食产量变化具有显著的13年和25年的主要周期,并以25年的周期尤为显著;最后综合3个时间尺度上小波系数的演变趋势发现,无论是大尺度还是小尺度上,在未来几年内,江苏省将走出粮食增产时期,而进入粮食减产时期。同时,该文还在此基础上,对影响江苏省粮食产量变化的因子进行了灰色关联分析,并确定了各个影响因子对粮食产量变化的关联程度和主次地位,以期能为缓解未来几年内江苏省粮食减产情况和保障江苏省粮食生产可持续发展提供一定的参考。
The wavelet analysis has been used to analyze the grain output in Jiangsu province after the founding of our People's Republic at multiple time scales. The results show : 1) The grain output has 3 years,13 years and 25 years characteristic time scales and corresponding changes from the figures of the wavelet coefficents. At the meantime, the time scales tend to become longer and it indicates that the changes of the grain output of Jiangsu province become steady step by step ; 2) the grain output has the 13 years and the 25 years main periods from the wavelet variances analysis, and the 25 years period is especially outstanding; So the grain output has 13 years and 25 years main periond from wavelet coefficients and wavelet varience analysis; 3) Whether at the bigger scale or at the smaller scale, the grain output in Jiangsu province seems to be decreasing in the recent years from the analysis of the figures of the wavelet coefficients. On the base of the multiple time scales analysis , we have further studied the factors affecting the grain output of Jiangsu province by means of the grey relevance analysis, and we have quantitatively measured the correlative degree between factors and the grain output. The results show that per unit area grain yield, grain sown area and the effective irrigated area are the most important factors that affect the grain output in Jiangsu province. The effects on the grain output from mechanization of farming and fertilizerring become more and more obvious, and the effects from grain procurement price and electrization have minished. Moreover, on the base of the grey relevance analysis , the countermeasures to guarantee the grain output security of Jiangsu province have been proposed. This paper provides a scientific basis for sustainable grain production development in Jiangsu province.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第1期107-112,共6页
Resources Science
基金
国家"211"二期工程重大项目"不同时空尺度的环境演变和生态建设"。
关键词
江苏
粮食产量
多时间尺度
小波诊断
关灰色关联分析
Jiangsu province
Grain output
Wavelet analysis
Multiple time scales
Grey relevance analysis
