摘要
从2000年到2022年,东北地区的人口负增长趋势明显先于全国其他地区。人口自然增长率逐年下降、人口净流出严重、老龄化程度加深等均是东北地区产生人口负增长的原因。以东北地区2020年第七次全国人口普查数据为基期数据,预测2025—2050年东北地区的人口规模。结果表明,高中低方案中东北地区的人口规模均呈现负增长的情况。人口负增长将导致劳动适龄人口减少、消费需求下降、社会养老医疗需求增加,退休职工增多等情况。在人口负增长不可逆转的背景下,应打造特色养老服务体系,提升全民人口高质量发展;强化生育服务支持,人力资源优化配置;壮大本土优势产业,加快东北经济圈形成。
From 2000 to 2022,the population negative growth trend in Northeast China was more pronounced than in other regions of the country.The reasons for the population negative growth in Northeast China include the continuous decline in the natural population growth rate,severe net population outflow,and deepening of the aging problem.Based on the data from the 2020 Seventh National Population Census as the base period data,the population size of Northeast China from 2025 to 2050 was predicted.The results show that the population size in Northeast China will continue to decline under the high,medium,and low scenarios.Population negative growth will lead to a reduction in the working-age population,a decline in consumer demand,an increase in the demand for social elderly care and medical services,and an increase in the number of retired workers.Against the backdrop of the irreversible population negative growth,it is necessary to build a characteristic elderly care service system,promote high-quality population development for all;strengthen support for fertility services,optimize the allocation of human resources;strengthen local advantageous industries,and accelerate the formation of the Northeast Economic Circle.
作者
侯建明
李淞
HOU Jianming;LI Song
出处
《商业经济》
2026年第4期1-7,49,共8页
Business & Economy
基金
2024年国家社科基金重大项目:以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化的理论与政策研究(24&ZD157)。
关键词
人口负增长
东北地区
人口高质量发展
人口预测
population negative growth
Northeast China
high-quality population development
population prediction
