摘要
【目的】分析1992—2022年我国林业有害生物发生的时空特征,从多尺度探究自然气候因素、经济社会因素对其的影响,为我国林业有害生物防控决策提供理论依据。【方法】基于1992—2022年我国31个省份的林业有害生物发生面积,运用STEM聚类分析对省份发生特征进行分类;结合自然气候因素和经济社会因素,采用随机森林、皮尔逊相关及耦合协调度模型,从多尺度解析林业有害生物发生的影响因素。【结果】1)1992—2022年,我国林业有害生物发生面积总体呈上升趋势,在时间上2018年后病害增速最快,在空间上31个省份呈现为3类11种增长模型。2)全国尺度上,铁路里程率、高速公路里程率、气温、苗木产量对林业有害生物发生率变化的重要性显著(P<0.05)。在时间维度,气温、降水、铁路里程率、高速公路里程率、苗木产量、人均GDP、进出口总额7个因素均与林业有害生物发生率显著相关(P<0.05);在空间维度,仅铁路里程率、高速公路里程率和人均GDP与林业有害生物发生率显著相关(P<0.05)。3)省份尺度上,气温、降水与林业有害生物发生率的耦合协调度在广东、广西、海南较低,在山东、天津、上海较高;铁路里程率、高速公路里程率与林业有害生物发生率的耦合协调度在山东、天津、上海等东部地区较高,在云南、青海、西藏等西部地区较低。4)进一步分析自然气候因素、经济社会因素对本土和入侵林业有害生物发生率的差异影响特征,本土林业有害生物发生率在北方地区较高,与降水呈显著负相关(P<0.05),与铁路里程率呈显著正相关(P<0.05);入侵林业有害生物发生率在沿海地区较高,与铁路里程率(P<0.001)、高速公路里程率(P<0.01)呈极显著正相关。【结论】1992—2022年我国林业有害生物发生面积在时间上总体呈上升趋势,在空间上呈现多种变化模型。全国、省份尺度上,自然气候因素、经济社会因素对林业有害生物发生率的相对重要性、相关性、耦合协调度存在显著差异。本土和入侵林业有害生物发生率的空间分布及与各因素的相关性特征存在显著差异。基于多尺度分析结果,应构建因素分级管理、时空协同防控、分区防控、本土和入侵林业有害生物差异防控的多级防控体系。
【Objective】This study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of forestry pest occurrence in China(1992—2022),and examine the multiscale impacts of natural climatic and socioeconomic factors on pest dynamics,providing a theoretical basis for prevention and control strategies.【Method】Based on the occurrence area of forest pests in 31 provinces of China's mainland from 1992 to 2022,STEM clustering analysis was used to classify the occurrence characteristics of the provinces.Combined with natural climatic factors and socioeconomic factors,the random forest,Pearson correlation,and coupling coordination degree models were employed to systematically analyze the influencing factors of forestry pest occurrence at multiple scales.【Result】1)From 1992 to 2022,forestry pest occurrence area in China showed an overall increasing trend.Temporally,plant diseases exhibited the most rapid growth after 2018,and spatially,the 31 provinces demonstrated 3 categories comprising 11 distinct growth models.2)At the national scale,railway density,expressway density,temperature,and seedling production showed statistically significant importance(P<0.05)in driving forestry pest incidence changes.Temporally,all seven factors exhibited significant correlations with forestry pest incidence(P<0.05).Spatially,however,only railway density,expressway density and per capita GDP were significantly correlated with forestry pest incidence(P<0.05).3)At the provincial scale,the coupling coordination degree between temperature and precipitation and forestry pest incidence was relatively low in Guangdong,Guangxi,and Hainan,while significantly higher in Shandong,Tianjin,and Shanghai.The coupling coordination degree between railway density,expressway density and forest pest occurrence was significantly higher in eastern regions including Shandong,Tianjin,and Shanghai compared to western regions such as Yunnan,Qinghai,and Xizang.4)Further analysis was conducted to characterize the differential impacts of natural climatic and socioeconomic factors on native and invasive forestry pest incidence.Native forestry pest incidence showed higher prevalence in northern regions,demonstrating significant negative correlation with precipitation(P<0.05)but positive correlation with railway density(P<0.05).Invasive forestry pest incidence was higher in coastal areas,exhibiting highly significant positive correlations with both railway density(P<0.001)and expressway density(P<0.01).【Conclusion】From 1992 to 2022,forestry pest occurrence area in China has an overall increasing trend temporally and displays multiple variation models spatially.At national and provincial scales,there are significant differences in the relative importance,correlation,and coupling coordination degree of natural climatic and socioeconomic factors on forestry pest incidence.There are significant differences in the spatial distribution of the incidence of native and invasive forestry pests and their correlation characteristics with various factors.Based on these multi-scale analysis results,a multi-level prevention and control system should be constructed,including factor-level prioritization,spatiotemporal synergy controls,regionalized prevention,and differentiated strategies for native versus invasive forest pests.Key words:forestry pests;spatial and temporal characteristics;natural climatic factors;economic and social factors;invasive forestry pests;native forestry pests.
作者
孙钰高
季英超
王德辉
李水坤
郑永明
何少华
张宾
张艳芬
Sun Yugao;Ji Yingchao;Wang Dehui;Li Shuikun;Zheng Yongming;He Shaohua;Zhang Bin;Zhang Yanfen(State Key Laboratory of Animal Biodiversity Conservation and Integrated Pest Management Institute of Zoology,Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101;Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Biotic Interactions University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;College of Life Sciences,Hebei University,Baoding 071002;Shanxi Fenhe Plain Farmland Shelterbelt Ecosystem Research Station for Long-Term Observation,Jinzhong 030801;College of Plant Protection,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018;Jianchang County Forestry and Grassland Development and Protection Center,Huludao 125300;Jiande City Forestry and Ecological Service Center,Hangzhou 311600;Lin’an District Plant Quarantine Station,Hangzhou 311300;Macheng City Forestry Pest Control and Quarantine Station,Huanggang 438300)
出处
《林业科学》
2026年第3期122-132,共11页
Scientia Silvae Sinicae
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(32230066)
国家重点研发计划项目(2025YFC2609102)
国家自然科学基金联合项目(U24A20432)
国家林业和草原局揭榜挂帅项目(202401-10)
中国科学院动物研究所自主部署项目(2023IOZ0103,2023IOZ0203,2023IOZ0204)。
关键词
林业有害生物
时空特征
自然气候因素
经济社会因素
本土林业有害生物
入侵林业有害生物
forestry pests
spatial and temporal characteristics
natural climatic factors
economic and social factors
invasive forestry pests
native forestry pests
