摘要
随着国内铁路运输模式由生产导向转向需求导向,候补购票已成为旅客在票源紧张时获取出行机会的重要途径。本文围绕候补购票引发的运力调配问题,通过分析旅客购票行为与客流动态预测方法,提出一套基于候补数据的铁路运力资源动态调配策略。重点研究了在既有运行图基础上增开旅客列车的开行方案优化方法,构建了以旅客需求响应为核心的运力调整机制。研究表明,通过实时追踪候补需求、灵活调整票额与列车开行方案,可显著提升候补购票兑现率,增强铁路运输服务的市场吸引力,在满足旅客出行需求的同时提高铁路运营效益。
With the shift in China's railway transportation model from production-oriented to demand-oriented,standby ticket purchasing has become an important means for passengers to secure travel options when tickets are in short supply.Focusing on the transport capacity allocation problem triggered by standby ticketing,this paper analyzes passenger ticket purchasing behavior and methods for dynamic passenger flow forecasting,and proposes a dynamic allocation strategy for railway transport capacity resources based on standby ticket data.Emphasis is placed on optimizing the additional train operation plan on the basis of the existing timetable,constructing a demand-responsive mechanism for capacity adjustment.The study demonstrates that by tracking standby demand in real time and flexibly adjusting ticket quotas and train operation plans,the fulfillment rate of standby tickets can be significantly improved,enhancing the market appeal of railway transportation services,meeting passenger travel needs,and increasing railway operational efficiency.
作者
张嘉敏
张嘉锐
ZHANG Jiamin;ZHANG Jiarui(College of Transportation,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China;Qingdao locomotive depot,Jinan railway bureau,Qingdao 266041,China)
出处
《综合运输》
2026年第1期53-57,共5页
China Transportation Review
关键词
铁路旅客运输
候补购票
运力资源
动态调配
列车开行方案
Passenger railway transportation
Standby ticket
Transport resource
Dynamic deployment
Train operation plan
