摘要
彭家港水库作为区域重要水利基础设施,其安全性对工程稳定运行具有关键意义。本文基于现场勘察和室内土工试验,获取了水库区不同土层的物理力学参数数据,统计分析了主要土性指标的分布特征及相关性。在此基础上引入蒙特卡洛方法,依据土体参数的概率分布,生成大量随机样本,分别代入承载力与沉降计算模型,开展安全性能概率评价。结果显示:地基极限承载力的均值为317.5 kPa,标准差为23.7 kPa, 95%置信区间为271.1~363.9 kPa,设计值260 kPa位于分布左侧尾部,仅约5%的样本结果低于该值;地基沉降量的均值为0.065 m, 95%置信区间为0.056~0.075 m,未超过常规沉降限值。通过模拟结果,获得了承载力与沉降的概率密度函数、均值、置信区间以及失效概率等统计指标,揭示了地基工程性能的潜在风险区间。基于土性参数分布特征的概率模拟方法能够有效表征地基承载力与变形的不确定性,为类似水利工程的地基安全评价与设计优化提供了科学支持。
As an important regional water conservancy infrastructure,the safety of Pengjiagang Reservoir is of crucial significance to the stable operation of the project.Based on on-site investigation and indoor geotechnical tests,this paper obtained the physical and mechanical parameter data of different soil layers in the reservoir area,and statistically analyzed the distribution characteristics and correlations of the main soil property indicators.On this basis,the Monte Carlo method is introduced.According to the probability distribution of soil parameters,a large number of random samples are generated and substituted into the bearing capacity and settlement calculation models respectively to carry out the probability evaluation of safety performance.The results show that through the simulation results,statistical indicators such as the probability density function,mean value,confidence interval and failure probability of bearing capacity and settlement were obtained,revealing the potential risk interval of foundation engineering performance.Further,taking typical parts such as the dam foundation,slope and spillway as the analysis objects,zonal safety assessment was carried out,and reliability grade classification was conducted in accordance with the"Code for Foundation Design".Studies show that the probability simulation method based on the distribution characteristics of soil parameters can effectively characterize the uncertainty of foundation bearing capacity and deformation,providing scientific support for the foundation safety evaluation and design optimization of similar water conservancy projects.
作者
王浩
樊刘洋
仲闯
WANG Hao;FAN Liu-yang;ZHONG Chuang(Huai’an Water Conservancy Survey and Design Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Huai’an 223005,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《水利科技与经济》
2026年第2期132-140,共9页
Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy
关键词
土体性质
安全评价
蒙特卡洛
彭家港水库
Pengjiagang reservoir
soil properties
safety evaluation
Monte Carlo method
