摘要
为探究不同降水年型下降水量、氮肥与秸秆覆盖耦合变化对旱地春小麦产量的影响机制,利用2013-2018年免耕及免耕秸秆覆盖下的春小麦产量、土壤及气象数据校验APSIM模型。结合1970-2022年历史数据驱动校验后的模型,模拟5×5×5组降水变化量(±20%、±10%、0%)、施氮量(0.0、52.5、105.0、157.5和210.0 kg/hm^(2))和秸秆覆盖量(0、1125、2250、3375和4500 kg/hm^(2))组合下的产量,分析不同单因素下各年型产量变异系数,并采用二次正交多项式逐步回归、单因素分析和交互效应研究各因素对产量的影响。结果表明,APSIM模型模拟效果良好,2种耕作方式下实测与模拟产量R2均大于0.8,NRMSE均小于10%,ME均大于0.8。欠水年、平水年和丰水年下,三因素单独及交互作用均正向影响产量,效应强度为降水变化量>施氮量>秸秆覆盖量。在当年自然降水基础上,各年型最优产量及耕作措施为:欠水年实现最优产量2203.65 kg/hm^(2),需增加20%降水量、施用153.13 kg/hm^(2)氮肥、覆盖4500 kg/hm^(2)秸秆;平水年实现最优产量2838.77 kg/hm^(2),需增加20%降水量、施用170.76 kg/hm^(2)氮肥、覆盖4500 kg/hm^(2)秸秆;丰水年实现最优产量3447.11 kg/hm^(2),需增加20%降水量、施用188.58 kg/hm^(2)氮肥、覆盖4500 kg/hm^(2)秸秆。综上,在模拟试验设置范围内,免耕覆盖下增加降水量、施氮量和秸秆覆盖量均可提升春小麦模拟产量,但影响程度因降水年型而异,当地春小麦宜按年型制定水肥覆盖方案以实现高产与稳产。
To investigate the mechanism of the coupled effects of precipitation,nitrogen(N)fertilizer,and straw mulching on dryland spring wheat yield under different precipitation year types,the APSIM model was calibrated using spring wheat yield,soil,and meteorological data under no-tillage and no-tillage with straw mulching from 2013 to 2018.Combined with historical data from 1970 to 2022 to drive the calibrated model,yields were simulated under 5×5×5 combinations of precipitation changes(±20%,±10%and 0%),nitrogen application rates(0.0,52.5,105.0,157.5,and 210.0 kg/ha),and straw mulching rates(0,1125,2250,3375,and 4500 kg/ha).The coefficient of variation of yield under single-factor was analyzed for each year type,and quadratic orthogonal polynomial stepwise regression,single-factor analysis,and interaction effects were employed to study the impacts of various factors on yield.The results showed that the APSIM model performed well,with R^(2)>0.8,NRMSE<10%,and ME>0.8 for both tillage practices.In dry,normal,and wet years,the individual and interactive effects of the three factors all positively influenced yield,with the order of effect intensity being:precipitation change>nitrogen application rate>straw mulching rate.Based on the natural precipitation of the current year,the optimal yields and cultivation measures for each year type were as follows:in dry years,an optimal yield of 2203.65 kg/ha was achieved by increasing precipitation by 20%,applying 153.13 kg/ha of nitrogen,and mulching with 4500 kg/ha of straw;in normal years,an optimal yield of 2838.77 kg/ha required a 20%increase in precipitation,170.76 kg/ha of nitrogen,and 4500 kg/ha of straw mulching;in wet years,an optimal yield of 3447.11 kg/ha required a 20%increase in precipitation,188.58 kg/ha of nitrogen,and 4500 kg/ha of straw mulching.In conclusion,within the simulated experimental range,increasing precipitation,nitrogen application rate,and straw mulching amount under no-tillage conditions can enhance the simulated yield of spring wheat,but the degree of impact varies with precipitation year types.For local spring wheat,water,fertilizer,and mulching strategies should be formulated according to the specific year type to achieve high and stable yields.
作者
叶晓娟
刘强
Ye Xiaojuan;Liu Qiang(College of Science,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China;College of Information Science and Technology,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)
出处
《作物杂志》
2026年第1期217-224,共8页
Crops
基金
国家自然科学基金(32360438)
甘肃省拔尖领军人才项目(GSBJLJ-2023-09)
甘肃省重点研究发展计划(22YF7FA116)。
关键词
APSIM
春小麦
降水
氮肥
秸秆覆盖
产量
APSIM
Spring wheat
Precipitation
Nitrogen fertilizer
Straw mulching
Yield
