摘要
城乡融合发展与农业高质量发展相辅相成,优化协同发展能有效破解城乡二元结构难题、激发农村发展活力,释放“1+1>2”的巨大潜能。基于新发展理念,选取2011—2023年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,构建多维指标体系,综合运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、核密度估计、莫兰指数、障碍度模型、地理探测器和灰色关联分析方法,系统探究城乡融合与农业高质量发展的耦合演进特征、分布格局以及核心影响因子。研究发现:(1)研究期内,全国耦合协调水平总体提升,但区域分异明显,呈现东、中、西三级梯度格局。(2)空间集聚总体呈弱化趋势,但受疫情影响略有回升,东部沿海为稳定的“高-高”集聚区,西部“低-低”集聚区逐步收缩,中东部交界区存在“高-低”孤岛现象。(3)制约因素总体稳定,但也存在部分地区差异,其中农业高质量发展为主要制约因素,关键障碍因子为农产品出口依存度、城乡非农就业比和科研创新成果。(4)通过障碍度模型和地理探测器交叉探索,发现城乡非农就业比、科研创新成果兼具“障碍性”与“驱动性”双重属性,蕴含强大的协同驱动潜力;核心驱动因子为经济发展水平、城镇化率和城乡最低生活保障人数占比,且各驱动因子间存在显著的交互增强效应。最后,针对全国耦合发展的区域差异、制约与驱动因素等方面提出科学的对策建议。
Urban-rural integration and high-quality agricultural development complement each other and are mutually reinforcing.Optimizing their coordinated development can effectively tackle the challenge of the urbanrural dual structure,stimulate the vitality of rural development,and unleash the enormous potential of"1+1>2"synergy.Guided by the new development philosophy,this study focuses on 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2023.It constructs a multidimensional indicator system and comprehensively employs a suite of quantitative research methods—including the entropy weight method,coupling coordination model,kernel density estimation,Moran's I,obstacle degree model,geodetector,and grey relational analysis—to systematically explore the coupled evolution characteristics,spatial distribution patterns,and core influencing factors of urban-rural integration and high-quality agricultural development.The main findings are as follows:①During the study period,the national level of coupling coordination generally improved,but significant regional differentiation was observed,presenting a three-tier gradient pattern across eastern,central,and western China.Specifically,the eastern regions maintained a relatively high level of coupling coordination due to their advanced economic foundation and mature urban-rural interaction mechanisms,while the central regions showed steady growth but lagged behind the east,and the western regions remained at a relatively low level,reflecting the unbalanced development of urban-rural integration and high-quality agriculture across different regions.②The overall trend of spatial agglomeration showed a weakening tendency,though it experienced a slight rebound during the epidemic.The eastern coastal areas remained stable"high-high"agglomeration zones,where the high level of urban-rural integration and high-quality agricultural development mutually promoted each other,forming a positive development cycle.In contrast,the"low-low"−agglomeration zones in the western regions gradually shrank,indicating that the western regions had made certain progress in narrowing the development gap.Additionally,there existed a"high-low"isolated island phenomenon in the border areas between the central and eastern regions,where some areas with high development levels coexisted with neighboring low-level areas,failing to generate effective spillover or driving effects.3 The restrictive factors were generally stable,though differences existed among some regions.Among these,high-quality agricultural development was identified as the primary restrictive factor.The key obstacle factors included agricultural product export dependence,non-agricultural employment ratio,and domestic patent application acceptance volume.Specifically,the low export dependence of agricultural products in some regions limited the integration of local agriculture into the global market;the unreasonable nonagricultural employment ratio affected the optimal allocation of rural labor resources;and the insufficient number of domestic patent applications restricted the technological innovation drive for high-quality agricultural development.④Through the cross-exploration of the obstacle degree model and geodetector,it was found that the nonagricultural employment ratio and domestic patent application acceptance volume possessed the dual attributes of"obstructiveness"and"driving force",implying strong potential for synergistic driving.When these factors were reasonably regulated and optimized,they could transform from obstacle factors into important driving forces for coordinated development.The core driving factors included per capita GDP,urbanization rate,and the proportion of people covered by the minimum living security system in urban and rural areas.Furthermore,there was a significant interactive enhancement effect among these driving factors—their combined action had a more prominent impact on the coupled development of urban-rural integration and high-quality agricultural than their individual effects.Finally,in response to the regional differences,restrictive factors,and driving factors in the national coupled development,this study puts forward scientifically countermeasures and suggestions to further promote the coordinated and high-quality development of urban and rural areas in China.
作者
付钟雄
FU Zhongxiong(School of Economics and Management,Yan'an University,Yan'an 716000,Shaanxi China)
出处
《河南科学》
2026年第1期213-227,共15页
Henan Science
基金
延安大学2025年研究生科研创新计划项目(YKY2025059)。
关键词
城乡融合
农业高质量发展
耦合协调
障碍度模型
地理探测器
双属性潜力因子
urban-ruralintegration
high-quality agricultural development
coupling coordination
obstacle degree model
geodetector
dual attribute potential factor
