摘要
土地利用变化是陆地生态系统碳储量演变的核心驱动力,然而当前针对丘陵向平原地貌过渡区域城市的碳储量预测研究较少。鉴于此,本研究选取位于江淮丘陵向长江平原过渡地带的巢湖市为研究区,通过耦合lnVEST和PLUS模型,分析巢湖市2000—2020年土地利用变化特征,探究碳储量的演变趋势,同时对未来多情景下的土地利用格局及碳储量变化进行模拟。结果表明:(1)研究期间,巢湖市各类用地变化显著,北部平原区耕地与城区周边丘陵林地面积均有减少;碳储量年际变化呈现先增后减趋势,累计减少0.278 Mt,碳损失主要集中在东部与东南部丘陵地带。(2)2035年多情景下土地利用有明显变化,自然发展与城镇发展情景下,建设用地扩张增量显著;生态保护情景下,城市周边丘陵地貌得到有效保护,林地面积增加;耕地保有量在耕地保护情景下稳中有升。(3)2035年4种情景的碳储量差异显著,其中自然发展情景降幅最大,耕地保护情景减少量最少。巢湖市土地利用与碳储量变化具有高度一致性,因此通过优化土地利用格局、协同多情景制定政策保护林地与耕地,可有效提升区域碳储量,推动城市可持续发展。研究结果可为处于丘陵向平原地貌过渡区域的城市未来土地利用提供借鉴。
Land use change is the core driving force for the evolution of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems.However,there are few studies on the prediction of carbon storage in cities in the transition region from hills to plains.In view of this,this study selected Chaohu City,which is located in the transition zone from the Yangtze Huaihe River hilly region to the Yangtze River Plain,as the research area.By coupling the lnVEST and PLUS models,this paper analyzed the characteristics of land use change in Chaohu City from 2000 to 2020,explored the evolution trend of carbon storage,and simulated the land use pattern and carbon storage changes in the future.The results showed that:(1)during the study period,all kinds of land use in Chaohu city changed significantly and the area of cultivated land in the northern plain and hilly forest land around the urban area decreased;The interannual variation of carbon storage showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,with a cumulative decrease of 0.278 Mt.The carbon loss was mainly concentrated in the eastern and southeastern hilly areas.(2)In 2035,there will be significant changes in land use under multi-scenarios.Under the scenario of natural development and urban development,the expansion increment of construction land is significant;Under the ecological protection scenario,the hilly landform around the city is effectively protected,and the area of forest land is increased;Under the scenario of cultivated land protection,the amount of cultivated land has increased steadily.(3)In 2035,the carbon reserves of the four scenarios were significantly different,among which the natural development scenario had the largest reduction,and the cultivated land protection scenario had the least reduction.The changes of land use and carbon storage in Chaohu City are highly consistent.Therefore,by optimizing the land use pattern and formulating policies to protect forest land and farmland in coordination with multiple scenarios,the regional carbon storage can be effectively improved and the sustainable development of the city can be promoted.The results can provide reference for future urban land use in the transition region from hilly to plain landform.
作者
胡茹燕
吴敏
古今今
吴倩
HU Ru-yan;WU Min;GU Jin-jin;WU Qian(School of Architecture and Art,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230601,China;Hefei Mineral Resources Supervision and Testing Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources,Anhui Geological Experimental Research Institute,Hefei 230001,China)
出处
《安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版)》
2025年第6期529-537,共9页
Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41601581)
合肥工业大学哲学社科基金项目(JS2023ZSPY0050)
安徽省住房城乡建设科学技术计划项目(2023-YF001).
